I doubt Nadal wins this French Open

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  • mathdotcom
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-24-08
    • 11689

    #71
    Way not to hit confirm, durito
    Comment
    • MilfDriller
      Restricted User
      • 11-23-08
      • 10186

      #72
      math.com is correct. fed is done.

      so sad how the dude has grown a vagina.

      if he were up 2 sets to love vs. Rafa in the final.... well, we all know who would win. and the 5th set would be 6-0 rafa. just a shame

      i'm really rooting for the guy.. but, seriously, he needs to lift weights and lose that blubber fat around his mid-section. he looks like Nalbandian. he could dramatically change his physique with weights and stabilize his body... instead he looks like a feeble-breasted European physically
      Comment
      • valdosta
        SBR Hustler
        • 02-09-08
        • 86

        #73
        Originally posted by MilfDriller
        Good stuff, HH.

        I'm primarily concerned with Fed not getting Djoker in the French... as I'd like to see the 1-4 scenario I noted above... b/c hopefully Fed will beat Murray and all comers on his side.

        I'd really like to see Fed vs. Rafa in the final as a huge fan... but I'm afraid that might not happen... or, even worse, Rafa drills Fed in the ass in the final...
        As I mentioned in my earlier post it doesn't matter who is 3 and 4. Fed can end up with Murray or Djoko on his side of the draw regardless of who is 3 and who is 4.
        Comment
        • RogueScholar
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-05-07
          • 5082

          #74
          Nice write-up Lou, but I still don't see Roger coming through with a victory here. He's lost his fire, and now being married I expect him to continue the decline in his career as opposed to rebounding. He may pick up one more Slam title somewhere, but I'm pretty sure it won't be on clay.
          Originally posted by StraitShooter
          90% of the guys dont give a shit about your problems..and the other 10 are glad you have them..
          Comment
          • MilfDriller
            Restricted User
            • 11-23-08
            • 10186

            #75
            Vald, how does that work? I'm not following.

            1 and 4 are on the same side of the draw.

            2 and 3 are on the same side of the draw.

            This is the case for the French and not Wimbledon. With this reasoning, Roger would not play against Djoker until the final....

            Am I missing something?
            Comment
            • valdosta
              SBR Hustler
              • 02-09-08
              • 86

              #76
              Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW
              Three or four is an irrelevance though, makes no difference because the side you're on is random. It only helps to be number2 in the clay season, cos it means avoiding Nadal till the final. In the faster hard court events even that doesn't matter much, as both Murray and Djokovic would fancy beating Nadal on those.
              Pretty sure this is the correct answer. 1 and 2 are always the opposite sides but 3 and 4 can end up on either side. 1 doesn't always end up with 4 and 2 don't always end up with 3. So whether you are rated 3 or 4 doesn't really matter. Being 1 and 2 matters though because you can't meet until the finals.
              Comment
              • MilfDriller
                Restricted User
                • 11-23-08
                • 10186

                #77
                I see what you're saying... but from memory in these 128 draw tourney (slams).... the 1 and 4 is always on the opposite side of the 2 and 3.

                I can understand how they play with who gets put in what number.... but from what I understand the seedings are constant in most all tourneys.

                Ex:

                NCAA

                1-16
                2-15
                3-14
                4-13 ... and etc

                NBA

                1-8
                2-7
                3-6 ... and etc

                SLAMS

                1-4 .... get paired down to this result if all players pull through
                2-3 .... ditto


                The reason why I keep talking about this is b/c to me it pretty much looks like this scenario for the FO:

                1 Rafa
                2 Fed
                3 Djoker
                4 Murray

                This is important to me b/c I think Fed could lose to Djoker in the semis.... and I want another Rafa/Fed final ... so Fed would be better protected if he faces Murray ... if Murray makes it that far
                Comment
                • Dark Horse
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-14-05
                  • 13764

                  #78
                  Does anyone have records for parlaying Grand Slam champions in every round, compared to their pre-tournament line to win?
                  Comment
                  • MilfDriller
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-23-08
                    • 10186

                    #79
                    I think someone went over this before in another thread.... and the long-term odds are supposed to be pretty congruent with the overall price...

                    ... but I have no proof of that. Just read that somewhere I think.

                    HEE HAW: What did you think of Bjorg's assessment after the match last year.... that Fed should try to draw the match out and make it a long affair?
                    Comment
                    • HeeeHAWWWW
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-13-08
                      • 5487

                      #80
                      Seems a bit counter-intuitive tbh. The longer the rally, the more it favours the fitter guy, and the one with less UEs. Nadal wins on both counts.

                      Aside from that, Nadal will just relentlessly pound Federer's backhand in a long rally. That's not something Federer has ever been able to handle on high-bouncing surfaces.
                      Comment
                      • valdosta
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 02-09-08
                        • 86

                        #81
                        Originally posted by MilfDriller
                        I see what you're saying... but from memory in these 128 draw tourney (slams).... the 1 and 4 is always on the opposite side of the 2 and 3.

                        I can understand how they play with who gets put in what number.... but from what I understand the seedings are constant in most all tourneys.

                        Ex:

                        NCAA

                        1-16
                        2-15
                        3-14
                        4-13 ... and etc

                        NBA

                        1-8
                        2-7
                        3-6 ... and etc

                        SLAMS

                        1-4 .... get paired down to this result if all players pull through
                        2-3 .... ditto


                        The reason why I keep talking about this is b/c to me it pretty much looks like this scenario for the FO:

                        1 Rafa
                        2 Fed
                        3 Djoker
                        4 Murray

                        This is important to me b/c I think Fed could lose to Djoker in the semis.... and I want another Rafa/Fed final ... so Fed would be better protected if he faces Murray ... if Murray makes it that far
                        No, you are incorrect. 3 and 4 have to be on opposite sides but 1 can play 3 or 4 and 2 can end up playing either as well. There is no set draw except that 1 and 2 are on opposite sides and so are 3 and 4. However 1 doesn't always play 4 and 2 don't always play 3. If you need an example use the Australian Open last year. Federer was 1 and Djokovic was 3 and they met in the semi's.
                        Last edited by valdosta; 05-08-09, 03:48 PM.
                        Comment
                        • MilfDriller
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-23-08
                          • 10186

                          #82
                          Okay, looks like you're right.

                          This must be the only sport that does this.... I can't really think of another one.

                          What's the point of ranking the players in sequence and not putting them equal distribution... which is what most all other playoff formats do. My guess is that it's just so the tourney can pick it's own future potential matchups.

                          With the logic they're using (well, this year we put 3 on this side and 4 on that side and 5 on this side)... they can do whatever they want.

                          I guess don't really care when this concerns tennis... the only thing I want to see is Fed vs. Raf in the final.
                          Comment
                          • valdosta
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 02-09-08
                            • 86

                            #83
                            I don't know why they do it how they do, I just know that's how it's done. In all honesty I have no interest in Federer-Nadal in the finals. It will be lopsided. I'd much rather see Djokovic play Nadal. At least he won a set from Nadal on clay this year and last year if I remember right he had a set point but blew it.Although Nadal beat them both in straight sets last year his match with Djokovic was much more competitive and Federer has only gotten worse. Last year was pathetic enough at 6-1,6-3 and 6-0.
                            Comment
                            • HeeeHAWWWW
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 06-13-08
                              • 5487

                              #84
                              Madrid draw is out - looks like a Nadal Djoko semi on one side. Fed has bunnies like Blake/Roddick/Davy before the semis. Murray has banana skins in Robredo then Wawrinka/DelPotro before playing Fed.
                              Comment
                              • MilfDriller
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-23-08
                                • 10186

                                #85
                                Has Fed really been that bad on clay this year, tho?

                                He had the marriage so you can throw out the loss to Wawrinka....

                                Then he has his 2nd tourney and he loses in the semis to Djoker.. but he was up a set and a break... then the rain delay. He loses the 2nd set after the rain delay.... in the 3rd he goes up a break..... but tanks it.

                                At least he's got ascending results... and it looks like it will crescendio (sp) with a final appearance in Madrid.

                                As for seeing Djoker and Rafa.... I think Djoker is an absolute punk faaggot. Can't stand that little bitch. He pounds his chest like he's got the heart of a lion... but he's as soft as they come and can't finish matches.
                                Comment
                                • valdosta
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 02-09-08
                                  • 86

                                  #86
                                  Regardless of Djokovic's history of quitting, he is playing the 2nd best tennis on clay right now. He has a very good game on pretty much all surfaces. He's extremely talented when he has it together. As for Federer yeah it's that bad for him on clay if you expect him to beat Nadal. Federer had never lost to Djokovic on clay before this year and in general was only losing to Nadal on the surface. Not anymore though. As for him making the semi's of the last tourney his draw was pretty weak up until Djokovic.
                                  Comment
                                  • MilfDriller
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-23-08
                                    • 10186

                                    #87
                                    Won't be long till the French Open. Can't wait.
                                    Comment
                                    • HeeeHAWWWW
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 06-13-08
                                      • 5487

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by MilfDriller
                                      Has Fed really been that bad on clay this year, tho?
                                      Always hard to answer anything based on Fed's masters results - he's long since ceased caring about them. Only won one in 2007, and in 08/09 he only made one final on hard/indoors. Clay has always been the exception though, as he takes a run at Roland Garros.

                                      This year he's not even got the clay results. Goes out in the 3rd at Monte Carlo - the most important event because it's the most similar clay to Roland Garros (even though it's a lot slower due to the wet sea air). Then flops against Djoko after one good set in Rome, the exact same pattern as their Miami match.

                                      He does have a piece of cake draw in Madrid though. Interesting potential semi vs Murray though, who's beaten him 5 times in a row now. That would be doubly important, because if Murray wins it he'll likely take number 2 after Roland Garros.
                                      Comment
                                      • MilfDriller
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-23-08
                                        • 10186

                                        #89
                                        Beaten him 5 times in a row.... how embarassing.
                                        Comment
                                        • James007
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 05-09-09
                                          • 16

                                          #90
                                          no this time roger will win the french open.
                                          Comment
                                          • tacomax
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-10-05
                                            • 9619

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by durito
                                            Don't know a damn thing about tennis, but just had to put this in after reading this thread.

                                            Tennis: ATP French Open 2009
                                            Yes/No Player To Win
                                            Will R. Nadal Win French Open? (Must Start R1)
                                            1051. Yes -310
                                            Risking 3,100.00 to Win 1,000.00 USD
                                            Originally posted by pags11
                                            SBR would never get rid of me...ever...
                                            Originally posted by BuddyBear
                                            I'd probably most likely chose Pags to jack off too.
                                            Originally posted by curious
                                            taco is not a troll, he is a bubonic plague bacteria.
                                            Comment
                                            • donjuan
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-29-07
                                              • 3993

                                              #92
                                              I want to know when Mathdotcom is going to start booking any women's tennis match I want at -700 and what his limits are.
                                              Comment
                                              • MilfDriller
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-23-08
                                                • 10186

                                                #93
                                                I've got a question.

                                                If Rafa is at -360 or whatever to win the FO.... what does that break down to in the final?

                                                He has to be a -800 or better fave in the final, wouldn't you think? I know that sounds outlandish but he was a -800 or -900 fave vs. Djoker in Rome for a best of 3-sets.
                                                Comment
                                                • valdosta
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 02-09-08
                                                  • 86

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by MilfDriller
                                                  I've got a question.

                                                  If Rafa is at -360 or whatever to win the FO.... what does that break down to in the final?

                                                  He has to be a -800 or better fave in the final, wouldn't you think? I know that sounds outlandish but he was a -800 or -900 fave vs. Djoker in Rome for a best of 3-sets.
                                                  Unless Federer all of a sudden starts playing like he used to and meets Nadal in the finals Nadal will be a huge fav. I wouldn't be surprise to see him -800 in the finals. Assuming of course he sails through with no injuries.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SBR Lou
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 08-02-07
                                                    • 37863

                                                    #95
                                                    Nadal's results on clay cannot be questioned, but he's not invincible. He's susceptible to the same nerves as everybody else, despite the fact that he's been playing over his head for quite some time. He will never come close to Federer's slam count.

                                                    In fact, should they both meet in finals which I am forecasting that they do, I wouldn't be surprised if Federer took it in 4 sets.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • MilfDriller
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-23-08
                                                      • 10186

                                                      #96
                                                      You've really gone off your rocker on this one, Lou. Not sure why you're doing this. No disrespect.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • daggerkobe
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 03-25-08
                                                        • 10744

                                                        #97
                                                        If Crazyl had to put his job on the line for this pick, you know he would say "Just kidding" in a heartbeat.

                                                        He must be going nuts not being allowed to bet so he just makes all these crazy prognostications that lose so he feels better about not wagering.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MilfDriller
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-23-08
                                                          • 10186

                                                          #98
                                                          I hope he's right.... that Nadal loses... but I don't see how it will happen.

                                                          This looks like when Fed was on top and playing his best at U.S. Open... nobody could even smell his farts. Same goes with Nadal right now... in RG.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mathdotcom
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 03-24-08
                                                            • 11689

                                                            #99
                                                            lol

                                                            CrazyL: "Nadal has been playing over his head for quite some time now."

                                                            Moron
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SBR Lou
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 08-02-07
                                                              • 37863

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by mathdotcom
                                                              lol

                                                              CrazyL: "Nadal has been playing over his head for quite some time now."

                                                              Moron
                                                              There was a long period of time where Federer couldn't lose a tiebreak, same as Nadal, he finds ways to win the toughest and most pressure packed points- that won't continue forever. He's not the best tennis player alive, he's extremely good and a master at clay, but Federer is all around better than he is. He just needs to believe that, and play like it.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mathdotcom
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 03-24-08
                                                                • 11689

                                                                #101
                                                                "He just needs to believe that, and play like it."

                                                                LOL. He is done.

                                                                Why not tell Nolan Ryan to come back. He is still the best pitcher alive, he just needs to believe it and play like it.

                                                                Federer at his best could not touch Nadal on clay. Now Nadal is even better, Federer is much worse, but you like this play?

                                                                hahaha
                                                                Comment
                                                                • daggerkobe
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 03-25-08
                                                                  • 10744

                                                                  #102
                                                                  So how many units are you risking Crazyl? And will they count towards your record or will you pull the 'they werent in the official thread' or 'they were just to start discussions' excuse again?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • donjuan
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-29-07
                                                                    • 3993

                                                                    #103
                                                                    lol

                                                                    CrazyL: "Nadal has been playing over his head for quite some time now."

                                                                    Moron
                                                                    Speaking of morons, can we start with the -700 on any women's tennis match already?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • smitch124
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 05-19-08
                                                                      • 12566

                                                                      #104
                                                                      come on Mathy, all in on L. Dominguez Lino +700
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • donjuan
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-29-07
                                                                        • 3993

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Bueller? ...Bueller? ...Bueller?
                                                                        Comment
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