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Determined how?Comment -
Nadal in reality should be like -1900 to win French , he is that much betterComment -
Oh, I thought you said you knew your edge.I believe fair value of line was -900.Comment -
Absolutely, so long as it is not Serena Williams vs. BrentCrude. The difference in quality between the players would have to be huge to justify laying -700. Ivanovic was not even close to being that much better than whoever the hell it was she lost to. You don't get a few rounds into a slam by being horseshit, even by women's standards.
I'll take that on any women's matchup at a Slam after the first round.Comment -
ditto
You think laying -700 on a woman you just have the hots for is better than laying -300 on a guy who has won the tournament 4 times in a row, yet has only gotten better over the past year while his main competitor (Federer) has only gotten worse. There is noone even close to challenging him. Yes he can get injured, but the guy is fit as a horse, has been destroying everyone on clay so far this season, and no doubt will be taking Roland Garros very seriously.
Even when Federer was in his prime, it might be iffy laying -300 on him because he can sometimes go crazy if he loses a set. We have all seen Nadal fight off match points to come back from sets behind to win a match. This guy will not quit, and doesn't get upset if he has a bad set. -300 is basically a bet on whether or not the guy will get the flu or get hit by a car.
You are honestly the worst tennis capper I have ever seen, it's unreal how many losing chalk plays that you post.Comment -
You should release your pick, crazyL. everyone will hammer the other side so hard it might actually become a +EV bet for you.Comment -
Can't argue with Nadal's results, but at the same time also can't shake the feeling he's a lot more vulnerable this year than previous ones. At times he's really struggled to find his attacking rhythm, his second serve is godawful, and he has repeated attacks of what you can only call brainfarts - periods where he can't do anything right. Against Chela he lost 11 points in a row ...... and Chela sucks. So many times he's also lost serve immediately after breaking, and really lamely too, with stupid weak errors (today's match vs Djoko too).
On the flip side of the coin, who will beat him? Djokovic on fast Rome clay and slow Monte Carlo had his chance, and couldn't, even in three sets. The problem is that Nadal's clay returns are ridiculous - it's near impossible to blast a serve past him, and then he wins most rallies too.
Longer term I think it might take something different: somebody who has a serve he can't easily return. That probably means a a tall guy who can produce service angles nobody else can, but at the same time has some danger on the groundstokes. There's only one candidate for that on clay: Del Potro. Clearly he's nowhere near the level needed yet though, and indeed his serve isn't reliable enough either. However, at 6'6 and on high-bouncing clay there is the potential for his service games to be very hard to break indeed - even Nadal can't do much with a return when it's up above his head at pace. The big flat groundstrokes off both wings are also very dangerous to Nadal, especially cross court, and he's not bothered by the ball bounce Nadal's topspin generates (indeed it's quite convenient, his preferred hitting zone is very high up especially on the backhand).
Frankly though, I doubt Del Potro will develop much on clay. He's nowhere near at present anyway.Comment -
What are your limits and who will hold the funds?Absolutely, so long as it is not Serena Williams vs. BrentCrude. The difference in quality between the players would have to be huge to justify laying -700. Ivanovic was not even close to being that much better than whoever the hell it was she lost to. You don't get a few rounds into a slam by being horseshit, even by women's standards.
I'll take that on any women's matchup at a Slam after the first round.Comment -
Who is it, Lou?
Spit it out.
Good thing for Fed is that Djoker will be on opposite side of draw... so Fed would meet Nadal in the final.
Just hope Fed doesn't cry this timeComment -
Federer and Djokovic can be on the same side of the draw. Federer will have either Murray or Djokovic on his side of the draw. He would be better off with Murray there. Murray can lose to some lesser players on clay. Where as Djokovic is less likely to lose to a lesser guy and Federer would have to face him. It would be a shame if Nadal and Djokovic ar on the same side of the draw. They are currently the 2 best players on clay (Djokovic far behind obviously).Comment -
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but with Djoker's loss in Rome... Murray solidified the 3-spot in the rankings....
and thus wouldn't Rafa (1) and Djoker (4) be on the same side of the draw? This would mean Fed (2) and Murray (3) are on the same side.
HeeHaww, is this right?Comment -
I really hope Federer comes out of hibernation and answers the bell.
Hell, bet him to win it and hope for a nice hedge in the semis.Comment -
I would like that too, G.... but Fed is done.
For his legacy I hope he can win 2 more Slams. I think he's got one more Wimbledon final (this year) ... and then after that he may not make it again with Rafa, Djoker, and Murray pushing him further behind in 2 years...
Just sad.Comment -
Yup. Even if Djokovic wins Belgrade it doesn't matter.
Murray likely takes number two soon also, he has no points to defend before Wimbledon, while Federer has a Hamburg final, Roland Garros final, Halle win. Then Wimbledon final also (Murray quarters).
Rankings don't actually matter for Wimbledon, because they use a different system that will almost certainly guarantee Fed the number2 seed, even if he's ATP ranked number4
For Roland Garros seedings, it needs a minor miracle for Murray to take number two before that. I think he has to win Madrid. More likely after Roland Garros.
Three or four is an irrelevance though, makes no difference because the side you're on is random. It only helps to be number2 in the clay season, cos it means avoiding Nadal till the final. In the faster hard court events even that doesn't matter much, as both Murray and Djokovic would fancy beating Nadal on those.Comment -
Federer will be #2 for Roland Garros.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
sounds good.
so 1 thru 4 is locked up then, no?
1. Rafa
2. Fed
3. Murray
4. Djoker
So in each draw you've got (barring they don't lose earlier) these semis:
Rafa vs Djoker
Fed vs Murray .. (but I don't think Murray will make it that far)Comment -
I'm talking French OpenComment -
My pick and comprehensive analysis will be posted by midnight.Comment -
I look forward to reading it, Lou.
Originally posted by StraitShooterComment -
Not 100% certain. Assuming Djoko wins Belgrade, then .......
If Djoko makes the Madrid final and Murray doesn't make the semis, Djoko is back at number 3. Or, if Djoko wins Madrid, he's guaranteed no3 going into Roland Garros whatever Murray does. In this scenario Murray can overtake him again with a halfway decent Roland Garros performance, because Djoko defends semis there, Murray early exit.
For Murray to overtake Fed for Roland Garros: Murray must win Madrid, and Fed must go out before the final. Rather unlikely, to put it mildly.Comment -
Good stuff, HH.
I'm primarily concerned with Fed not getting Djoker in the French... as I'd like to see the 1-4 scenario I noted above... b/c hopefully Fed will beat Murray and all comers on his side.
I'd really like to see Fed vs. Rafa in the final as a huge fan... but I'm afraid that might not happen... or, even worse, Rafa drills Fed in the ass in the final...Comment -
Ohhhhh Louuuuuu, I'm staying up waiting to read your piece, man. Seriously, I'm dying to know who it is I've overlooked. So far you haven't given me any bad tennis advice (a few questionable plays, but also a few insightful ones) and I want to see you get back to speaking on this sport.Originally posted by StraitShooterComment -
The greek has Jo Wilfred Tsonga at +10000. French citizen..young player...good talent....Comment -
French Open Picks
I'd like everyone's attention please. Tune out any possible distractions, and focus solely on the following text. It would help if you were to repeat the following text aloud in your head (no really- do it).
- Six Grand Slam singles titles, 2008 Olympic Gold Medal.
- 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 200-? (French Open)
- 2009 (Aussie Open)
- 2008 (Wimbledon)
Now, repeat this.
- Thirteen Grand Slam titles.
- 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 (Wimbledon)
- 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 (US Open)
- 2004, 2006, 2007 (Aussie Open)
- F 2006, 2007, 2008 (French Open)
Now recite all of that backwards- - just kidding.
I'm being colorful, because this topic is humorous to me. We have a 22yr old phenom that the world is ready to crown as the best player they've ever seen. If the argument was solely best 'claycourter', I could live with that, but now the discussion is shifting to well he's had success on grass and HC lately, so he's the complete package. That couldn't be further from the truth.
Not many expected Federer to lose at Wimbledon.
Most didn't expect him to lose at the Aussie Open, either.
Nobody expects Nadal to lose at the French Open.
To illustrate my point further, Nadal is -315 to win his fifth consecutive French Open.
Roger Federer's pedigree at Wimbledon never saw him top -250 in field odds.
Wimbeldon 2003: Federer +500
Wimbledon 2004: Federer +125
Wimbledon 2005: Federer -162.5
Wimbledon 2006: Federer -250
Wimbledon 2007: Federer -175
Wimbedon 2008: Federer -110
Roger Federer was -175 to win his fifth consecutive Wimbledon, Rafa is -315 to win his fifth consecutive RG.
That is absolutely insane, it serves as a great example of how the betting public have short memories and tend to completely abandon all form of logic with their overvaluing of players. Oddsmakers only offer -315 because they understand people are still going to bite, I will not be one of those people.
Instead of laying -315, I am going the opposite direction, here are my two plays I implore you to fade- - -
Will R. Nadal Win French Open? (Must Start R1)
No +270
Will R. Federer Win French Open? (Must Start R1)
Yes +1150
That is the absolute best value for this event.
I strongly believe Nadal will fall, just as Federer did. I will even go so far as to say that I am certain that, should Nadal fall, it will be at the hands of the FedEx in the Finals.
Payback's a five letter word.
P.S. You can throw "recent form" out of the window. Go check out some of Federer's recent play leading up to the US Open, he was not always polished, and did not expend as much energy as Rafa did in the smaller events, but that's irrelevant. He is seasoned and understands his limitations, why push your legs to the limit when you really only need to be in-form for the major? The best players in the game do not "need" warm-up events, they're just another check in the bank and an opportunity to work out and have fun after. The players like the 30/1 shots need these tune-up events, and if players like that are out of form leading up to a major the cautious approach applies. That approach is inapplicable to a guy that understands how to succeed in the 4th quarter.
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Well, I think you got the final match-up correct... likely Rafa v. Fed
But Rafa will **** Fed up the ass and then jizz blast all over his crying face.... unfortunately.
There is nothing more I'd like to see in tennis than Fed beat Rafa in Roland Garros.. but it likely won't happenComment -
guess this shit aint a hot topicComment -
Good analysis Lou. Except you're wrong. Fed is totally done. Wish it weren't so, but it's true. I haven't seen him play a solid match since he beat Murray at the U.S. Open.
Federer was never as big a favorite to win Wimbledon because he is known to be unpredictable if he has a shaky start. Nadal is solid as a rock.
I am loving my Nadal bet at -280. Though I do admit +1150 on Federer has pretty good value given he's got a good shot at making the finals, at which point you could hedge
In all honesty, putting some money on Federer helps to hedge the risk that Nadal gets injured. If that were to happen Federer would probably yizz his pants and go all out to try and go for his once in a lifetime opportunity at a French Open title.
Good luck Lou. But hope you didn't put too much of your savings on this.Comment -
Don't know a damn thing about tennis, but just had to put this in after reading this thread.
Tennis: ATP French Open 2009
Yes/No Player To Win
Will R. Nadal Win French Open? (Must Start R1)
1051. Yes -310
Risking 3,100.00 to Win 1,000.00 USDComment -
Good post, Lou and I really hope you are correct.Comment
