Davis Cup Weekend Plays

**brodie** · 09-17-15, 11:02 PM

I really think one of the Dog teams win.... I will be betting on both Argentina and Australia to win the 5 match series. Argentina is the team that I trust the most but I could easily see them both winning. All GBR has is Andy

**Jeff_Black** · 09-17-15, 11:12 PM

Yeah I like the dogs to win too. I don't think Belgium has much outside of Goffin either and doubles is a hard one to pick especially at Davis Cup level aside from the Bryan Brothers.
Both Argentina and Australia have good doubles players and have had some success there this year so they're definitely worth a play

**frugalgambler** · 09-17-15, 11:33 PM

Murray at home should be enough. The extra week of rest he got by exiting the Open early should help. I would not be surprised to see Tomic bomb too. And the only way Murray can salvage his last two seasons is to win the Davis Cup, with his brother on the team too.

Not so sure about the Belgians, but again the home crowd is big in Davis Cup matches. They will be getting lots of support; this is a high profile match there (not like it is in the States, where WNBA has a higher rating). In the previous round, the home teams went 4-0 (and 6-2 in the 1st round, with one of the home losses produced by the "invisible" US team).

**brodie** · 09-18-15, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Murray at home should be enough. The extra week of rest he got by exiting the Open early should help. I would not be surprised to see Tomic bomb too. And the only way Murray can salvage his last two seasons is to win the Davis Cup, with his brother on the team too.

Not so sure about the Belgians, but again the home crowd is big in Davis Cup matches. They will be getting lots of support; this is a high profile match there (not like it is in the States, where WNBA has a higher rating). In the previous round, the home teams went 4-0 (and 6-2 in the 1st round, with one of the home losses produced by the "invisible" US team).

definitely appreciate this insight. I think australia has a good team. Murray will win his 2 no doubt, but it will come down to the doubles... Sam groth in doubles is a problem. I think the Aussies could win this and you know it means a lot to them. The belium/argentina series is a tossup to be honest. goffin is the best player easy but he's not a doubles guy and who else do they have? darcis is not someone I can trust against guys like Leo and Delbo.... that being said I would not be surprised if the favs won, really tight matchups

**frugalgambler** · 09-18-15, 12:55 AM

The matchups are not tight, the lines are -200 for the favs. If you think it's a tossup, then definitely take the dogs. I don't. Anyway, let's see how it goes. Murray will probably play three matches, if Tomic wins. But Andy can do it, unless he somehow does not win in three sets tomorrow.

The venue will be packed. I think you are really underestimating the homecourt advantage there. You saw how Djoker looked uncomfortable in the final vs Feds, and the crowd there was more like 75-25 in Feds favor. Djoker was even getting some chants in his favor. In Scotland, it should be almost like a soccer match. Murray's bro has just reached the US Open doubles final (and ditto at Wimby). Is Groth better ? Methinks not. Hewitt is certainly a crazy nutter who can survive the pressure, but the rest of the Aussie squad not so much.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-18-15, 06:15 AM

Australia will probably be motivated to win the DC too to send off Lleyton Hewitt a winner and it really is a toss up in the doubles.
Murray also has a great chance considering this is one of the weakest SF lineups in some time mainly because there aren't as many star players.
That said I see something comfortable with a break for Murray in each of the sets like 6-3 or 6-4 IMO.
Tomic can win but might do it in four possibly with the support Evans gets.
He wasn't TOO bad against Gasquet but showed a lot of nerve not to lose to Hewitt bein 2-0 up.

**Snowball** · 09-18-15, 07:59 AM

Tomic and his family have a history with the Australian tennis commission
so don't expect anything but 99% effort.

**frugalgambler** · 09-18-15, 08:32 AM

Dude, Ward is not playing. It's gonna be Evans. Andy just bageled Kokki in the 2nd set.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-18-15, 09:19 AM

Yeah, him.
Let's see what the kid can do.

**frugalgambler** · 09-18-15, 09:48 AM

Looks like Evans is completely outclassed here. Oh well. Tomic is actually 7-0 in his last Davis Cup matches. Amazing.

**brodie** · 09-18-15, 10:46 AM

can andy even play 3 singles matches??

**frugalgambler** · 09-18-15, 11:32 AM

Of course not. But he is likely gonna play doubles with his bro tomorrow. Gotta give it to Evans. If it was a US Open match, Tomic would've won like 6-3 6-2 6-4. But Evans is fighting. Huge crowd support. The Belgian crowd is even crazier.

**frugalgambler** · 09-18-15, 12:37 PM

Props to Evans, he covered and produced a pretty entertaining match.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-18-15, 09:54 PM

Yeah no way I'd touch that otherwise but with the home crowd there it was worth a bit of a play. Otherwise a fan-freaking fantastic start.

Dont think I'll bother with doubles as it's not really my thing and it's a quick way to lose money if you don't know what you're doing so hopefully a few more good plays on Sunday.

**frugalgambler** · 09-18-15, 10:12 PM

Inglot is still listed to play tomorrow, and GBR is a -250 fav in doubles. I bet Andy will replace him though. A top-5 singles singles player partnered with a brother who is a top-10 doubles player. What can go wrong ? But you never know. My guess is that after the lineup change, the line will be close to -400. Not worth it. Curiously, there is no line yet for the Begium/Argentina match. Tomic looked pretty decent today, but he seemed to struggle a bit as the match went on. Maybe his stamina is not up to par.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-19-15, 08:01 AM

Yup on the money, Murray replacing him...pretty last minute some bookies might not even adjusted the market. Will prob ended up voiding most bets

Groths serve saved Australia there. Hard to say who'll win, GBR don't look anything flash

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 08:56 AM

The odds for GBR actually dropped from -250 to -200 after Andy was declared to play. Andy's WTA style second serve is not really an asset in doubles. I think he was already broken twice. GBR is in trouble in the third set. Fun match though.

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 09:18 AM

Wow. GBR storms back from 1-4 to 5-4, breaking both Aussies in the process. It's like a FIFA WC final there.

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Yup on the money, Murray replacing him...pretty last minute some bookies might not even adjusted the market. Will prob ended up voiding most bets

Groths serve saved Australia there. Hard to say who'll win, GBR don't look anything flash

Yeah, the bets involving Inglot will be voided. It was pretty obvious that Andy would play, even if Inglot might be a better doubles player.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-19-15, 09:49 AM

Groth choking up has hurt the Australian doubles side of things, Don't know how much more he can take of it. If Australia can snuff out a fifth set its game on, they seem to be able to break the serve of the bros but the bros are putting a lot of pressure back on them.

would like to see it go to 5

**brodie** · 09-19-15, 11:16 AM

lol only caught the last game, woke up late, but groth blew that shit bad. lleyton was not pleased... oh well wanted both teams to win the doubles but at least argentina is still in good shape to win. GBR just got their spot in the finals though

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 01:31 PM

I think Tomic will be fighting tomorrow. Murray will probably go through, although he should be mentally exhausted after the doubles match. Murray is a -1500 fav on the ML, which I think is too optimistic for GBR. Physically, a big edge to Murray though. I waiting on the line, and will probably take Tomic ATS and/or over. If Tomic produces an upset, expect Hewitt replace Kokki. GBR does not have much of a choice but to play Evans, although fielding winless Ward is also a possibility, and Evans might be injured. In any case, no way Kokki will be playing the 5th rubber.

In the 2nd semifinal, both Mayer and Darcis spent a lot of energy in the doubles today. A heartbreaker for the Belgians. I think Belgium has no choice but to play Darcis tomorrow. And I think Argentina also has no choice but to play Mayer and Delbonis, although Berlocq might replace Delbonis. Anyway, I have no idea why Darcis is a -170 fav over Delboner. Darcis does not look that strong, and I think he will be too tired to clinch it tomorrow. Goffin should win the first match tomorrow, although I am not sure if he will cover.

Yeah, brodie, Belgium will probably lose tomorrow. Bodes well for the GBR fans, b/c the final will be played in GBR.

**MGTennisTipster** · 09-19-15, 05:16 PM

On Belgium vs Argentina it should be decided in a 5th rubber with Goffin winning the 4th one against Mayer.

Will be a very tricky match, Darcis is the favorite because he's the more experienced player, much better Indoor Hard record while Delbonis has always struggled in this game conditions. However Federico played a pretty decent match against Goffin, but in that match he knew he had nothing to lose and wasn't expected to win so was more free to release some powerful groundstrokes. This time will be probably the biggest match on his career and will have to play on his worst game conditions (along with grass) against an experient player and away from home.

The keys are the following:
1) How well can Darcis deal with the fatigue from two very demanding days
2) How Delbonis can deal with that tricky low bounce slice, the Argentinean has a long preparation of forehand and likes to hit balls that bounce high but Steve will play the opposite shots
3) How both players can deal mentally with such an important and big match.

Agree, odds on Darcis are quite low due to the time he has been on court and the level presented by Delbonis against Goffin but this is Davis Cup semifinal and never underestimate the power of home crowd and also the higher experience.

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 05:56 PM

I would not be surprised to see Berlocq replacing DelBoner. Berlocq will fight big time, while Delboner might fold. Quite a few loud Argentina fans there too. Should be an interesting match.

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 06:03 PM

Well, Berlocq is even worse on hard. He used to be decent but he is playing clay only nowadays. I think Delbonis will play. Should be interesting.

**MGTennisTipster** · 09-19-15, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Well, Berlocq is even worse on hard. He used to be decent but he is playing clay only nowadays. I think Delbonis will play. Should be interesting.

Darcis with 64.12% career winning record on Indoor Hard against 35.71% from Delbonis.

The biggest problem for Federico on this conditions imo is clearly the low bounce

**frugalgambler** · 09-19-15, 09:08 PM

Thanks for the insight. I was just going by the eye-ball test: Delbonis looked surprisingly resilient vs Goffin, while Darcis looked pretty hapless vs Mayer. But this might very well change tomorrow, as you pointed out. But Delbonis seems to be a decent Davis Cup player, so it is unlikely he will fold.

My bigger lean is on Tomic +8 though. He is getting as many games as Kokki. What's up with that ? Yeah, I know he is a bonehead, but he also plays well in DC. And Murray will not be as sharp tomorrow.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-19-15, 09:32 PM

Yeah I was thinking that too yesterday, likely to jump on now as the odds have already come in

Davis Cup SF - Andy Murray vs Bernard Tomic
Handicap: Bernard Tomic +8 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
1u play

Davis Cup SF - David Goffin vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Score: Under 38.0 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
1u play

**toddhigg** · 09-20-15, 07:00 AM

Schwartzman now playing Goffin in the fourth rubber.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-20-15, 07:01 AM

Bugger, usually I leave out the 5th rubber because they can change things depending on who wins but i'll probably leave that one now...

**frugalgambler** · 09-20-15, 09:09 AM

Tough break with Tomic. Not a good bet in retrospective, I saw how Tomic started to labor with Evans as the match went on. Tomic had three game-points on his serve to at least ensure a push, but he fell apart. His stamina is really weak. I have no idea how he can be winning 3-setters against top-50 players, let alone 5-setters. Andy looked like he could go on for 5 more sets after the 2nd set, and Tomic looked like he needed a wheelchair. Too bad there were no live-betting options available for me. Live and learn.

**Jeff_Black** · 09-20-15, 09:30 AM

Some good signs and some not so good signs, broke Murray serving out for the set which usually never happens and at times was willing to go for his shots and hit those winners.
Otherwise just an up and down match from him in concentration which was disappointing but a few positives as well.

That'll be it for me on DC plays, most likely going to focus on St Petersburg in all its dodyness with the fixes that seem to happen there.