Pablo has some partying in mind, no?
-
-
I'm definitely interested in Almagro. Cuevas looked a bit low on gas today, and it looks like Almagro played him fairly tight last week.Comment -
the match is not tomorrow (Monday), its on Tuesday
but yeah, Almagro should take it . Cuevas must be exhausted and celebratingComment -
So how's everyone feeling about this now?Comment -
Cuevas is now ranked in the top 25
He can either celebrate his new ranking by going hard again and play motivated and well against someone he just beat OR he could still be tired and not care about the match because he´s already satisfied with what he recently achieved
Im staying away from it and betting on the winner for the next roundComment -
Cuevas is a solid player. Prob not super gased bec these guys are incredible athletes. But Magro is trying to get into form for the French. He will go all out here for sure. Could be a good play. Also look at Rola +4 games again vs Mayer. Leonardo should win that one, might be close? Just a thought or two..Comment -
Almagro line is climbingComment -
Paulie Caves on fire.
DAMN!Comment -
Hopefully after every single one of the supposedly "tired" players (Cuevas, Hantuchova, Souza, etc) won, we will stop seeing people on here using the tired angle purely to make a bet without even considering the matchup. Hate seeing people consistently throw money away by just considering this one factor instead of looking at the big picture.Comment -
Was originally listed as the next day on the site I checked. Only reason I considered it.Comment -
Fatigue is not a bad angle to play for Champions/Finalists in their next tournament, but I think you have to look a little more at their 2nd match and of course as mentioned above - the actual match-up. Also factors like hot weather/court time from the previous week definitely something to know if you want to try to fade with this sort of angle.
I don't have #s to back it, but I've seen quite a bit where the Champ/Finalist guts it out in the 1st match and then either adrenaline or want-to wears off making the 2nd match the one to fade them in. Definitely not a 100% formula, but something to look at when it looks right.Comment -
Also think Vanni crossing the Atlantic is a different bird altogether, for us stupid juice parlay playersComment -
That said, not playing the fade. Not before a few more beers anyhowComment -
can't decide if vanni 1st set is super square or super sharp.Comment -
Realized that after the fact, as well. Sidenote: dude when do you sleep?Comment -
Sorry for the long post that will follow but if anyone is interested in this theory, could be worth reading.
I sort of agree and disagree with this. Mainly cause of the fact Lu played insane today but also the fact that if you look over Anderson just from last year, he had a whole bunch of 1st or 2nd round losses regardless of where he finished in his prior tournament. I mentioned in a previous post in a recent thread that it is just a mere coincidence and that the number of times a player gets knocked out in the 1st two round of a tournament does not differ regardless of where he finished previously. Also especially since these players only need to play 4 matches to win a final if they get to skip the 1st round so chances of losing after 1 or 2 matches is extremely high.
The part where I agree with you is if a player has to play a bunch of games in a row and not just a few in a row. Anderson only needed to play 4 matches to make the final of Memphis so tiredness or factors like that shouldn't be an excuse. Plus he made Delray Beach final followed by Acapulco final in his only 2 final appearances last year. Whereas on the other hand if you look at Cuevas, Matt posted a thread to fade him against Michalicka last year but I told him to fade in the 2nd round instead cause Cuevas could beat Michalicka in his sleep and he ended up losing to Tsung-Hua Yang of all ppl the next round. The difference between Cuevas and Anderson's scenario is that Cuevas won in Bastad then had to go through qualifying to win in Umag so had to play 13 matches in a row, not to mention you play 2 matches in one day for qualifying. Also the tournament he lost in was a challenger event compared to the two tournaments he won at.
So pretty much I think you are on the right track with the idea of fading a player if they make a final but you have to consider other scenarios like actual amount of matches played, travel, if going from an ATP event to Challenger event, and possibly some other factors like their history after making finals.Comment -
Also if anyone wanted to know my opinion of Cuevas vs Montanes, I think Cuevas will win. Historically, Cuevas follows up finals by making more finals. Plus he only played 4 and a bit games due to a retirement and he doesn't need to travel as both tournaments are in Brazil. Lastly this is a 500 tournament so he should be up for it.
In terms of all the factors I posted, Cuevas ticks all the boxes to make another another deep run in this tournament in my opinion.Comment -
My "fade" pattern has changed too in these situations with the availability of the +1.5 sets bet. If it is available for a reasonable price, I've been taking that vs. the outright ML. The "fade" player could very well win, but it seems they at-minimum struggle to put away decent players. There's not much not to like for taking a shot at Montanes +1.5 sets for me. Factor in that the weather here has been beating down players with the heat and humidity.Comment -
Montanes a big old load of nothing. SS right on with Cuevas.Comment -
now Cuevas vs Nadal
wonder what the spread will beComment
