Giorgi/CSN: Short-term/Long-term "Line Schizophrenia"

[fitguy67]

noticed something odd on lines at pinny right now

short-term (ie. upcoming match) Giorgi a fairly-clear favorite
Giorgi -149 vs. CSN+132

long-term (future prop to win tourney)
Giorgi winning tourney considered a clearly-bigger surprise
Giorgi +2700 vs. CSN +1700
______________

what are the prices at this, the sharpest of books, telling us?

[fitguy67]

in decimal form, for those of that persuasion...

upcoming match: Giorgi @ 1.67 / CSN @ 2.32 (Giorgi favored to win match)

to win tourney: Giorgi @ 28 / CSN @ 18 (Giorgi winning tourney considered a clearly-bigger surprise)

[SirtySree]

This is the case in a lot of tournaments. I'm not 100% sure of the real reason but I am guessing it's based of if a player has actually made a final/won a final before in the past.

[fitguy67]

This is the case in a lot of tournaments. I'm not 100% sure of the real reason but I am guessing it's based of if a player has actually made a final/won a final before in the past.

yeah, the future involves much more complicated Beyesian-type of probability considerations...A winning the tourney involvies
simple prob of getting past B (all that the match odds must consider) AND THEN...
given A advances...how are they likely to fare against the likely rest of the likely field
(where such concerns as you mention come to the fore)

so even tho Giorgi tipped as more likely to win the match...she would be less likely to have the pedigree to parlay it all the way...makes sense...but makes you appreciate the "art" of linemaking...quantifying in a few numbers the myriad intangibles like that...

[kenz]

I guess Giorgi chokes so many times with never-seen-before fashion it is highliy likely to happen in 1 out of 4-5 consecutive games

[Honeybadger44]

As SirtySree said, this happens a lot more then some would think. I'd say it makes sense. These higher ranked, more experianced, more consistant players have better chance of winning a title. But they can bump into a difficult matchup along the way and that is why odds are closer or even reversed in comparison to outright odds.

At first sight, this one looks tricky for CSN. Giorgi should be like a fish in the water in these conditions. But, lets not forget that she is coming of Fed Cup match, where she played on clay. She needs to make quick adjustment and the way they lost that match against France, probably lowered the confidence of Italian players.

[Vinnie Paz]

Giorgi just too much power

Csn washed up