Djoker to win Wimbledon at +175 to +200 (factors to consider)

[RMStanley]

Even though Nadal beat him relatively comfortably at Roland Garros, you had to be impressed with the Djoker's path to the final and realize that the court surface advantaged would be switched at Wimbledon almost 180 degrees.

The likely seeds are

1. Djoko
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Feds
5. St. Stanislaus

So obviously that's an easier path - no Nadal or Murray until the Final. Would Wawrinka be on the Nadal/Murray side as well?

I feel like Djoker is probably a little less than 50/50 statistically to win the Final if he maintains his level from Paris. Obviously in every match including the final he would be favoured (British spelling there in deference to Her Majesty) so anything over +175 wouldn't be horrible odds.

Thoughts?

[NguyenImproved]

Even though Nadal beat him relatively comfortably at Roland Garros, you had to be impressed with the Djoker's path to the final and realize that the court surface advantaged would be switched at Wimbledon almost 180 degrees.

The likely seeds are

1. Djoko
2. Nadal
3. Murray
4. Feds
5. St. Stanislaus

So obviously that's an easier path - no Nadal or Murray until the Final. Would Wawrinka be on the Nadal/Murray side as well?

I feel like Djoker is probably a little less than 50/50 statistically to win the Final if he maintains his level from Paris. Obviously in every match including the final he would be favoured (British spelling there in deference to Her Majesty) so anything over +175 wouldn't be horrible odds.

Thoughts?

I like him. He's kinda due for a slam I guess.

The only thing is this guy is like a freakin' disease/ injury magnet.
If the gluten doesn't get him the sprained wrists will.

Having said that he should be primed after being at rest since the FO final.

If he manages to avoid a streaky big server on a hot patch (eg. Raonic/ Isner etc) he should win.

I don't like Fed or Murray's chances at all.

Nadal is an enigma but from what I saw of his serving in recent months...
Grass is not gonna favour him at all.

By default it looks like either 1. Djoker or 2. Some unknown to win this year's event.

I don't like backing favourites though so if I was going for futures I'd plonk on Raonic.
His groundstrokes seem better from what I saw of him in the early American hardcourt swing.
And you only need a passable court game with that serve to trouble the best on grass.

I understand his record is horrible but he's young so there's hopes of a turnaround.

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, no Nadal until the final, but Nadal is not the biggest threat @Wimby. But you have no guarantee that he will not be facing Murray just because he gets the 3rd seed. You do realize that the 1st and 3rd seed have a 50% chance to be in the same half ? Anyway, I am not sure you would not get a better value by betting Djoker match by match.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is the one surface Federer still has a legit shot on. He would probably need help, but his game still suits the surface. He needs to avoid rocketman types in his draw that can win with their serves and a solid forehand on their best days.

Nadal I don't Think given this point in his career cares about grass any more. He proved he can win on it, but generally I think he gets up for the French and then tries to manage himself to make a more reasonable run at the US open.

To me, motivation should be highest for Djokovic and I think Roger because this is his favorite. Have to consider though that Djokovic although in nearly every Slam Final it seems is coming by up short more often.

[SirtySree]

If you were impressed by Novak at the French Open, you obviously haven't watched him play before. Was up there with the worst I've seen him play in almost 2 years. He was a rollercoaster all tourney and that's not Novak. If he carries on like that, no way he wins a 5 setter once he plays one of the top players.