nadal barely covered the spread

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-28-09, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by pico

simon put up a good fight though...even broke nadal couple of times.

Pretty poor fight to my mind - he didn't turn up till a set and a break down. Then he does, breaks Nadal, misses a set point and collapses in disappointment. Gifts his serve away with 3 errors and a missed putaway, and that's the match there. Close on 50 errors in 3 sets too, which is terrible for him.

Big match experience of course, but he'll still be annoyed - he played miles better against Ancic.

**meganie** · 01-28-09, 06:34 AM

First time I've seen Nadal in a full match at the AO, didn't impress me that. Anyone else think Verdasco has a chance? They play similar styles, except that Verdasco is serving miles better and miles more reliable + Verdasco is able to hit it flatter.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-28-09, 07:01 AM

Yeah, if Verdasco plays like he did in the last three matches, he's a moderate favourite to win for me. Huge "if" though, the other Spanish players usually fold horribly vs Nadal. I've no idea how to make that judgement, although those saying Verdasco has turned a corner in his career seem to have more evidence on their side each game :-)

Might take 3-0, that'll be +3000 or something. Nadal's losses on hard/indoor courts to flat hitters are usually straight sets, eg vs Tsonga last year, Nalbandian 6-1 6-0 in Madrid, Youzhny a year ago in Chennai by the same score.

Dunno - question for me is whether it's a new matchup

**jayc88** · 01-28-09, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by meganie

First time I've seen Nadal in a full match at the AO, didn't impress me that. Anyone else think Verdasco has a chance? They play similar styles, except that Verdasco is serving miles better and miles more reliable + Verdasco is able to hit it flatter.

i'm saying it again, no one is going to beat nadal this year at the aussie open , the only one who has a shot is federer, but dont waste your money on verdasco.

**jayc88** · 01-28-09, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Yeah, if Verdasco plays like he did in the last three matches, he's a moderate favourite to win for me. Huge "if" though, the other Spanish players usually fold horribly vs Nadal. I've no idea how to make that judgement, although those saying Verdasco has turned a corner in his career seem to have more evidence on their side each game :-)

Might take 3-0, that'll be +3000 or something. Nadal's losses on hard/indoor courts to flat hitters are usually straight sets, eg vs Tsonga last year, Nalbandian 6-1 6-0 in Madrid, Youzhny a year ago in Chennai by the same score.

Dunno - question for me is whether it's a new matchup

don't you think its time to reevaluate your anti- nadal betting tendencies?
Yesterday simon was the player who has what it takes to beat nadal and now its verdasco

**meganie** · 01-28-09, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

i'm saying it again, no one is going to beat nadal this year at the aussie open , the only one who has a shot is federer, but dont waste your money on verdasco.

We'll see. I don't think Nadal is the one to beat, it's Federer for me and Nadal the one who has a shot.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-28-09, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

don't you think its time to reevaluate your anti- nadal betting tendencies?
Yesterday simon was the player who has what it takes to beat nadal and now its verdasco

Well these are long odds correct scores - you need very low success rates :-) Lost a whole bundle against him sure, but of the ones posted here there was Murray 3-1 vs him at the US Open at +1000 or so, and Simon's last victory against him (admittedly a bit of an inplay fluke, but that was +5000 or something silly).

As number 1 or 2, he's always over-rated by the books on hard court - I checked that a few months back, and indiscriminately betting straight sets against him on hard returns about 11% profit over the last 2 years.

It's not an anti-Nadal thing btw - I rarely bet on him it's true, but that's more cos favourites aren't my target. However, was on him to win Wimbledon at +400 (while watching the Queens final vs Djokovic, he was awesome).

I still think Simon has what it takes to beat Nadal btw, so does Verdasco. Everyone knows what the thing is, cos we've seen it from many opponents: consistent, accurate, deep hitting. Whether players actually produce it on the day of course......

**pico** · 01-28-09, 09:51 AM

simon looked like shit the first set, then he looked like a real contender. these young players need to work on their mental games. tsonga kind folded today...he just simply dropped the 1st serving game two sets in a row...wtf. it seems like tsonga likes to dug himself into a hole.