Is the 5Dimes Bonus Casino +EV???

[lite1up]

This may be the dumbest question ever asked, but here goes...

I'm new at 5Dimes and yesterday I made an initial deposit of $200. I started playing blackjack in their bonus casino (6 deck, single hand) against all of my better judgement (I have casino access blocked at my other book, Bodog).

Well, I quickly ran that $200 up to $450 playing reverse martingale starting at $3 a hand (3-6-9-15-3 progression after wins). I dropped back below $300 and I started playing again today and low & behold, I'm back up to $370 as we speak.

I've probably played close to 2,000 hands so it seems like a large enough sample size that any house advantage should be apparent by now.

What's the deal? Do I need to get the fukk out of there now? This seems too easy as every losing streak is countered by a nice winning streak that is made even more profitable using reverse martingale.

[AL1322]

if i ever get up more than a hundred i hit the bricks lol..i used to say wow im winning b4 u know it your down to what u started with and then get the mindset of ..hey i can get back up there all while the dealer hits 20 8 hands straight and wipes u out..seen it so many times

[lite1up]

yeah i know, i just hit a nice even number at $400 but there's the temptation to say I just doubled my money so let's keep going. This is the first blackjack software that doesn't seem rigged but it's probably beginner's luck. I need to go into live chat and have them disable this. I have no willpower to stay out of the casino

[FourLengthsClear]

If you assume a fair deck and play basic strategy, there is about a 30% probability of the player being ahead after 2000 hands. Even after 10,000 hands it is around 4%.

Nothing outrageous about your results.

[lite1up]

If you assume a fair deck and play basic strategy, there is about a 30% probability of the player being ahead after 2000 hands. Even after 10,000 hands it is around 4%.

Nothing outrageous about your results.

Thanks FourLengths. I just needed to hear it.

[LordVodka]

While we're talking about their casino section can someone explain the Match Play to me?

[135steward]

If you're applying any kind of strategy, you'll only lose ~$1 for every $200 bet. But if you play 100 $2 hands, you'll likely vary +/- $10. There's a bunch of math behind it, but what it comes down to is the longer you play, the less variance and more house edge. None of us quit while we're ahead and stay quit, though, do we? I'm down $35 today at their roulette table.

If the anticipation turns to anxiety, give it a break. That's just common sense. And don't bet what you can't lose. And Good Luck!

[milkncereal]

the chicks are def. hot at the blackjack tables tho at 5dimes. Ive never done that good, but then again im not a perfect blackjack player

[5mike5]

no online casino is profitable...just be smart and dont play ever again--lol

[onlooker]

I had their casino disabled a long time ago.

[lite1up]

I just had it disabled. There is no other way I will stay out of the damn thing. Doubled my initial deposit and got out permanently. Only way to do it.

[NunyaBidness]

no online casino is profitable...just be smart and dont play ever again--lol

Not true.

[Hareeba!]

Not true.

I don't suppose you'd care to justify that statement?

[NunyaBidness]

Some online casinos are profitable if you know what you are doing. This isn't new news.

[Hareeba!]

Some online casinos are profitable if you know what you are doing. This isn't new news.

Okay, but it is to me

I'm sure they are all profitable for their operators, but not for their players

[Santo]

Hareeba: Bonuses, cashbacks etc can make them +EV. Nowhere near 10+ years ago of course.

[lite1up]

Okay, but it is to me

I'm sure they are all profitable for their operators, but not for their players

yeah, i'd like to hear how it's possible to beat a casino game long term with a built in house advantage.

Unless this guy is referring to bonus scalping which has nothing to do with what we're asking.

[NunyaBidness]

Okay, but it is to me

I'm sure they are all profitable for their operators, but not for their players

Last week bovada had a promo, transfer $46 to their casino, they give you $46 bonus, have to wager 30x. 30x 92 = $2,760.

Play $2,760 worth of hands at blackjack, expected loss is $13.80. Congrats you just made $32.20.

This week they have another +EV promo.

[NunyaBidness]

yeah, i'd like to hear how it's possible to beat a casino game long term with a built in house advantage.

Unless this guy is referring to bonus scalping which has nothing to do with what we're asking.

I responded to:

"no online casino is profitable"

I've made 6 figures at unprofitable online casinos.

And, the 5dimes bonus casino has been +EV in the past, without bonusing.

[Hareeba!]

Last week bovada had a promo, transfer $46 to their casino, they give you $46 bonus, have to wager 30x. 30x 92 = $2,760.

Play $2,760 worth of hands at blackjack, expected loss is $13.80. Congrats you just made $32.20.

This week they have another +EV promo.

Yes thanks. That is bonus scalping and far from being news.
In fact I plead guilty to having done some of that myself back in the dark ages when it was a whole lot easier to make worthwhile $.

Basic fact remains that no online casino games are +ev on their own.

[NunyaBidness]

Basic fact remains that no online casino games are +ev on their own.

You sure?

Joker Poker at bodog pays 100.05%

There are others.

[Hareeba!]

You sure?

Joker Poker at bodog pays 100.05%

There are others.

No, I'm not sure, that's why I asked you to explain your statement.

How do you find out what any particular game pays? And how can you be sure about it?

[135steward]

As far as what a game plays: if odds aren't posted, don't play. As far as can you be sure?

[LordVodka]

I responded to: "no online casino is profitable" I've made 6 figures at unprofitable online casinos. And, the 5dimes bonus casino has been +EV in the past, without bonusing.

Do they kick out players who can make a killing in the casino sections?

[135steward]

Do they kick out players who can make a killing in the casino sections?

Probably not, unless it's a case of "bonus abuse," whatever that is. Otherwise, if someone's winning, it's actually good for business. The winner brags to his friends, his friends want to play, ....

[AL1322]

played in ton of online casinos..u can hit a hot streak in them..but the problem people have is that when they get up they r tempted to keep playing..me included..and then lose it all back..if u hit a good streak and get up..its time to leave cuz b4 u know it the dealer will get 20 or 21 8 straight hands and take it all back

[Microphone]

I responded to:

"no online casino is profitable"

I've made 6 figures at unprofitable online casinos.

And, the 5dimes bonus casino has been +EV in the past, without bonusing.

I agree with you and what was said in post 7 earlier. If your timing is right (which is difficult), it can be done.

[lite1up]

Well boys, against all of my better judgement, I went back in for more tonight and it paid off again!

This is actually pretty surreal. I had a horrible few days betting on NCAA Basketball and my 5Dimes account dipped to $65 tonight so I said fukk it, I'm taking it to the 5Dimes casino and see if I can make something out of it...if not I'll reload.

Well, I went into the 6 deck, single hand blackjack in the bonus casino and started playing my reverse martingale system, starting with $1 per hand and upping to $2, $3, $5 and back to $1 after each successive winning hand.

In no time, I started winning again and had my account up to $150 so I decided to up the stakes to a progression of $3/$6/$9/$15. Pretty soon I was up to $300 and upped my progression again to $4/$8/$12/$20.

Got up to $500 in my account and again, upped the progression to $5/$10/$15/$25. I should mention I play basic strategy to the book, doubling down & surrendering when appropriate.

Well, I hit a bad losing streak and dragged my $500 all the way back down to $190. Kept playing, just lowered my stakes. Hit another winning streak and got back to $300. Upped the stakes again and pretty much went on the most ridiculous winning streak I've ever had. In about 30 minutes went from that $300 all the way to $775. Dropped back to $600 and got the fukk out...this is where I stand now.

I just don't get it. All I've done is won since I joined 5Dimes and played their blackjack. It seems like reverse martingale almost beats their software since it is really streaky. I'm placing my lowest bets during losing streaks ($3, $4, $5 at the most) and when I get hot, I get hot...meaning I often find myself doubling down at the end of the progression and winning $30-$50 on a single hand.

Please tell me this will reverse if I keep playing. I could literally quit my day job if I could win at their blackjack like this on a daily basis.

[135steward]

ok

Well boys, against all of my better judgement, I went back in for more tonight and it paid off again!

....and got the fukk out...this is where I stand now.

Please tell me this will reverse if I keep playing. I could literally quit my day job if I could win at their blackjack like this on a daily basis.

Maybe this will help.

1. When I finally started keeping records of my betting patterns a couple years back, I almost immediately hit a crazy MLB streak. I turned $150 into $1000. I had all kinds of grandiose plans before I lost it, the original stake, and $500 more.

2. When I played the futures market a few years back, I made $1500 the first week. I stopped going to work for a few days, until my streak ended. A few months later I was down $9k.

3. Recently, during football season, I was winning at about a 10:9 rate, up ~50 bets. Now I'm down ~40.

Gambling is for fun, lite. Do it for the rush, to kill some time, whatever. But if you're doing it with an expectation of winning more than you lose, brace yourself.

Oh, yeah, btw: I recall you were fighting yourself recently in another post, wondering how to fight the urge to keep from going bust? Keep your head, lite, or it won't be fun any more.

[unluckysob]

I dont think 5ds will disable casino----know it used to be that way----they told me years ago they can only disable all----will have to call in bets.

[Microphone]

Maybe this will help.

1. When I finally started keeping records of my betting patterns a couple years back, I almost immediately hit a crazy MLB streak. I turned $150 into $1000. I had all kinds of grandiose plans before I lost it, the original stake, and $500 more.

2. When I played the futures market a few years back, I made $1500 the first week. I stopped going to work for a few days, until my streak ended. A few months later I was down $9k.

3. Recently, during football season, I was winning at about a 10:9 rate, up ~50 bets. Now I'm down ~40.

Gambling is for fun, lite. Do it for the rush, to kill some time, whatever. But if you're doing it with an expectation of winning more than you lose, brace yourself.

Oh, yeah, btw: I recall you were fighting yourself recently in another post, wondering how to fight the urge to keep from going bust? Keep your head, lite, or it won't be fun any more.

I think with patience that I mention above, you can take them for a few bucks. But as a rule, the above advice is spot on.

[john230]

Maybe this will help.

1. When I finally started keeping records of my betting patterns a couple years back, I almost immediately hit a crazy MLB streak. I turned $150 into $1000. I had all kinds of grandiose plans before I lost it, the original stake, and $500 more.

2. When I played the futures market a few years back, I made $1500 the first week. I stopped going to work for a few days, until my streak ended. A few months later I was down $9k.

3. Recently, during football season, I was winning at about a 10:9 rate, up ~50 bets. Now I'm down ~40.

Gambling is for fun, lite. Do it for the rush, to kill some time, whatever. But if you're doing it with an expectation of winning more than you lose, brace yourself.

Oh, yeah, btw: I recall you were fighting yourself recently in another post, wondering how to fight the urge to keep from going bust? Keep your head, lite, or it won't be fun any more.

[PutTogether]

I know it SEEMS like a large sample size, but it isn't.

Remember too that because you played 2000 hands, doesn't mean you've played 2000 with a $50 bet in front of them. You've been on the fun side of variance is all, and like most fun, thrilling, exciting things, it can dramatically cloud you perception and judgement.

Kind of like the story Warren Buffet used to tell.

Before we begin this examination, I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest. Let's assume we get 225 million Americans up tomorrow morning and we ask them all to wager a dollar. They go out in the morning at sunrise, and they all call the flip of a coin. If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong. Each day the losers drop out, and on the subsequent day the stakes build as all previous winnings are put on the line. After ten flips on ten mornings, there will be approximately 220,000 people in the United States who have correctly called ten flips in a row. They each will have won a little over $1,000.

Now this group will probably start getting a little puffed up about this, human nature being what it is. They may try to be modest, but at cocktail parties they will occasionally admit to attractive members of the opposite sex what their technique is, and what marvelous insights they bring to the field of flipping.

Assuming that the winners are getting the appropriate rewards from the losers, in another ten days we will have 215 people who have successfully called their coin flips 20 times in a row and who, by this exercise, each have turned one dollar into a little over $1 million. $225 million would have been lost, $225 million would have been won.

By then, this group will really lose their heads. They will probably write books on "How I turned a Dollar into a Million in Twenty Days Working Thirty Seconds a Morning." Worse yet, they'll probably start jetting around the country attending seminars on efficient coin-flipping and tackling skeptical professors with, " If it can't be done, why are there 215 of us?"

By then some business school professor will probably be rude enough to bring up the fact that if 225 million orangutans had engaged in a similar exercise, the results would be much the same - 215 egotistical orangutans with 20 straight winning flips.

I would argue, however, that there are some important differences in the examples I am going to present. For one thing, if (a) you had taken 225 million orangutans distributed roughly as the U.S. population is; if (b) 215 winners were left after 20 days; and if (c) you found that 40 came from a particular zoo in Omaha, you would be pretty sure you were on to something. So you would probably go out and ask the zookeeper about what he's feeding them, whether they had special exercises, what books they read, and who knows what else. That is, if you found any really extraordinary concentrations of success, you might want to see if you could identify concentrations of unusual characteristics that might be causal factors.

A continuously shuffling shoe of cards has zero memory of what has come before, and there is no possible way to discern an edge that would justify a bet larger than any other.

Because past results have ZERO weight on the outcome of any single hand, your bet sizing is essentially random. You happen to be winning on your larger bets. You're having an experience from the story above like one of the few who've called a coin flip right 10 times in a row. Your technique, skill, or style has nothing to do with it.......but your human nature will strive hard to tell you otherwise.

ANY sort of martingale 'strategy' will always fail unless you have three things:

Infinite Money
Infinite Time
Infinite Wager limit

Somewhere in there you've got the voice of reason nagging at you, it is why you're asking someone to tell you it won't last. Listen to that voice. It won't last.

[PutTogether]

I just noticed you also mentioned their software being 'streaky.'

First, random almost MEANS 'streaky.' Grab a deck of cards and and deal out a bunch of blackjack hands......that will be streaky too. Over a relatively small amount of time, your probability of seeing some bizarre seeming streaks of 12+ wins or losses in a row approaches 1. (1 meaning an absolute guarantee)

Now IF there was some sort of bug in their software (there isn't) that made you win when you bet large, or just wouldn't allow 10 losses in a row ........the answer is even more simple. They just wouldn't pay you.

[BigDofBA]

You can't beat software that's programmed to beat you.

They can adjust the theoretical hold of their games. In other words, you can play correctly using basic strategy and still lose more than you should based on what type of hold percentage they set the software at.

The software has decided if your winning or losing before the cards are dealt. It's not like real blackjack in which math actually applies. Don't think your winning because you play well or have a food strategy. It's all luck at the moment and you will lose over time.

After you place your bet, everything else is a mirage.