Winning percentages

**BrianLaverty** · 01-20-12, 09:04 PM

Very, very few

**Hareeba!** · 01-20-12, 09:19 PM

Winning % is totally meaningless without being related to the odds you are getting.

I get nowhere near 50% strike rate but still make money.

**indio** · 01-20-12, 11:35 PM

Bankroll management is even more important. There are a lot of people who pick more even odds winners that losers who go broke constantly. That's why it's hard to be a winning gambler. You have to have the talent to recognize plays with an edge (and put the time in to research where needed), and have the discipline to religiously practice sound money management. Then if you are one of the few who can do both consistently, you have to maintain outlets where you can wager and collect your monies efficiently and hassle free. This is almost impossible in the United States unless you're properly connected.

It is feasible to be a successful winning gambler, but you have to be prepared for swings and streaks that is inevitable do to mathematical variance. The true test is how you handle bad streaks and good streaks, as both are dangerous. Losing 20 of 25, or even losing for months will happen on occasion to the winning gambler, with some of the worst fluke beats in bunches you can imagine. Any deep seeded emotional problems that have been dormant for years can explode like a volcano after a brutal run, causing you to self-destruct. Not only blowing off your bankroll, but messing with your personal life too if you're not mentally strong.The good streaks can be dangerous too, as many a gambler has blown away money foolishly after a hot winning streak in a state of euphoric self-indulgence, only to go broke when he comes back to earth.

So is it possible to win long term? Sure. Just don't kid yourself that it's easy, it's very hard. And if you are able to pick pick 'em winners at a 55% rate, just know that that's only one of many skills you have to have.

**Hareeba!** · 01-20-12, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by indio

Bankroll management is even more important. There are a lot of people who pick more even odds winners that losers who go broke constantly. That's why it's hard to be a winning gambler. You have to have the talent to recognize plays with an edge (and put the time in to research where needed), and have the discipline to religiously practice sound money management. Then if you are one of the few who can do both consistently, you have to maintain outlets where you can wager and collect your monies efficiently and hassle free. This is almost impossible in the United States unless you're properly connected.

It is feasible to be a successful winning gambler, but you have to be prepared for swings and streaks that is inevitable do to mathematical variance. The true test is how you handle bad streaks and good streaks, as both are dangerous. Losing 20 of 25, or even losing for months will happen on occasion to the winning gambler, with some of the worst fluke beats in bunches you can imagine. Any deep seeded emotional problems that have been dormant for years can explode like a volcano after a brutal run, causing you to self-destruct. Not only blowing off your bankroll, but messing with your personal life too if you're not mentally strong.The good streaks can be dangerous too, as many a gambler has blown away money foolishly after a hot winning streak in a state of euphoric self-indulgence, only to go broke when he comes back to earth.

So is it possible to win long term? Sure. Just don't kid yourself that it's easy, it's very hard. And if you are able to pick pick 'em winners at a 55% rate, just know that that's only one of many skills you have to have.

Yes, all very true.

**marky85marky** · 01-21-12, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by Hareeba!

Winning % is totally meaningless without being related to the odds you are getting.

I get nowhere near 50% strike rate but still make money.

When I was referring to % I was referring to $1.91 odds. I understand that if you play underdogs your break even comes down.

Here's an interesting tool I came across in my research on Sport Bet Investments. Goes to show how important money management is as you can see that even with a 55% expectation you are bound to have losing streaks.

Thanks everyone

**Legions36** · 01-21-12, 12:55 AM

U better do your homework all im saying. Boy i remember the days when i would pick winners and then end up losing my roll because i thought picks were worth allin and boom right back to reality. Never again i say never again, now no bet could ever do anything to me. Listen to these guys and try to get as much info from SBR as u can these guys here will smarten u up if u want to learn. Anything u want to know can be found in this place. It will be trial and error at first, i really don't know what advice i can give u with your picks but u sound like u want to win.

**lukahh** · 01-21-12, 05:05 AM

very difficult to have over 50% on handicaps long term. it means being extremely selective even with all those betting lines out there. as soon as you are making daily wagers on wide range of markets, you should know you have been sucked in too deep and will only lose money faster.

**FourLengthsClear** · 01-21-12, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by marky85marky

I'm new to sport betting but from what I've read it seems like its possible to win long term. You need just 52.5% to break even which seems doable. Having said that, what sort of percentages have people seen long term? And I don't mean special plays that are released a few times per year. I'm sure it's possible to have a high % if you are very selective. But say if you were looking at having 2,000 plays per year, are there many people out there who can pick 55% plus?

No and those that do are using advanced/sophisticated methods.

Hitting over 55% over that many plays just by watching games and disseminating widely available statistics is very hard.

**evo34** · 01-21-12, 06:02 AM

Originally posted by marky85marky

When I was referring to % I was referring to $1.91 odds. I understand that if you play underdogs your break even comes down. Here's an interesting tool I came across in my research on Sport Bet Investments. Goes to show how important money management is as you can see that even with a 55% expectation you are bound to have losing streaks. Thanks everyone

How convenient that the site you link to has the same exact story you told before you "came across" the site: 55% over 2,00 bets. From the site: "We will generally have about 2,000 bets per year and will expect to win about 55% of them (assuming $1.91 odds)." Fukkin shill.

**dnange1z** · 01-21-12, 07:40 AM

about 99 percent end up losing. that's why you don't see people doing this as a careeer!!!!

**john230** · 01-21-12, 07:48 AM

This quote that someone posted yesterday sums it up best. "Play long enough the house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes, you bet big- Then you take the House."

**indio** · 01-21-12, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by evo34

How convenient that the site you link to has the same exact story you told before you "came across" the site: 55% over 2,00 bets. From the site: "We will generally have about 2,000 bets per year and will expect to win about 55% of them (assuming $1.91 odds)." Fukkin shill.

Good catch. I sure feel stupid that i wasted 10 minutes replying to a marketing plant. But I am getting closer to getting my free hat.

**marky85marky** · 01-23-12, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by evo34

How convenient that the site you link to has the same exact story you told before you "came across" the site: 55% over 2,00 bets. From the site: "We will generally have about 2,000 bets per year and will expect to win about 55% of them (assuming $1.91 odds)." Fukkin shill.

The reason I put that in there is cos that's the site I've got all my info from. Plus I'm thinking of joining them so wanted to see whether what they are saying is actually possible. Seems logical when I read it but who knows. There's a lot of info here in this site but it's a bit overwhelming with so many punters with different strategies. I don't wanna do this for fun and don't really wanna research the games. I mean if there's someone out there that's good and does the work I'd rather pay them, place my bets and enjoy my free time. Just don't know how realistic that is. Sorry if u thought I was promoting the site. Just wanted to see if they were talking shit

**zebras99** · 01-23-12, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by john230

This quote that someone posted yesterday sums it up best. "Play long enough the house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes, you bet big- Then you take the House."

Play big with the perfect hand and next day wake up in reality noticing that most of the funds a gone.
Bankroll management is the key.

**john230** · 01-23-12, 04:42 AM

Originally posted by zebras99

Play big with the perfect hand and next day wake up in reality noticing that most of the funds a gone.
Bankroll management is the key.

After that perfect hand comes and you make the big score, the best thing to do is get out of the game. Bet SBR points. Or else, you may throw it all back to the Man.

**marky85marky** · 01-23-12, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by dnange1z

about 99 percent end up losing. that's why you don't see people doing this as a careeer!!!!

Surely it's possible to do it as a career though. You need 55% and then sound money management. Sure 55% isn't easy but possible. There are services out there that have documented long term winning percentages of 55%. My take it on it is that people are too greedy. If you just want a sound investment with returns better than the stock market it seems very doable.

**john230** · 01-23-12, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by marky85marky

Surely it's possible to do it as a career though. You need 55% and then sound money management. Sure 55% isn't easy but possible. There are services out there that have documented long term winning percentages of 55%. My take it on it is that people are too greedy. If you just want a sound investment with returns better than the stock market it seems very doable.

You make it sound easy. Stock market is different because the returns can be so much greater. Now if you dropped 10k on MIne that Bird in the Derby a couple of years ago- You made 500k. Then I would agree with you. But picking games, paying juice, and winning long term- real slim chance.

**FourLengthsClear** · 01-23-12, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by marky85marky

Surely it's possible to do it as a career though. You need 55% and then sound money management. Sure 55% isn't easy but possible. There are services out there that have documented long term winning percentages of 55%. My take it on it is that people are too greedy. If you just want a sound investment with returns better than the stock market it seems very doable.

There are one or two services with verified long-term winning records, that's all. The problem is that this is common knowledge and when, for example, RAS release their play(s) lines move within seconds. If you do not get the same number that they do, you cannot replicate their winning record.

I have little doubt that the site you linked is a scam (99% of touts are).

**marky85marky** · 01-24-12, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

There are one or two services with verified long-term winning records, that's all. The problem is that this is common knowledge and when, for example, RAS release their play(s) lines move within seconds. If you do not get the same number that they do, you cannot replicate their winning record. I have little doubt that the site you linked is a scam (99% of touts are).

Sorry to keep going on here but I just don't know who to believe. You say there are one or two services with verified long term winning records. I guess you can't say who but I find that hard to believe. Notwithstanding the fact there may be thousands of scams, I also don't see why there wouldn't be more people out there picking 55%. It really isnt rocket science when you consider 99% of punters have absolutely no clue and are betting based on their 'research' over the morning paper. So if you make it a full time job, I see no reason why you cant hit 55%. I don't know how many touts are proclaiming a 55% win. The touts are the ones saying they hit 70% plus, which is impossible.

So lets say you can hit 55%, most people would still lose. And that includes most people here based on what I've read. My belief is that most people lost because of bad money management. I dont know how many people would be willing to bet 1% and grind out results. Most people bet for a quick buck and that seems to be the problem.

I would really love to hear from someone who has done it. As I said, I'm not interested in betting for fun. I do that as a separate activity and thats without much research. what I AM keen on is knowing about people who have made a living out of this.

**wrongturn** · 01-24-12, 10:28 PM

He already gave you one site with good record: RAS (Right Angle Sport). Check its website, might be what you are looking for.

**FourLengthsClear** · 01-24-12, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by marky85marky

Sorry to keep going on here but I just don't know who to believe. You say there are one or two services with verified long term winning records. I guess you can't say who but I find that hard to believe. Notwithstanding the fact there may be thousands of scams, I also don't see why there wouldn't be more people out there picking 55%. It really isnt rocket science when you consider 99% of punters have absolutely no clue and are betting based on their 'research' over the morning paper. So if you make it a full time job, I see no reason why you cant hit 55%. I don't know how many touts are proclaiming a 55% win. The touts are the ones saying they hit 70% plus, which is impossible.

So lets say you can hit 55%, most people would still lose. And that includes most people here based on what I've read. My belief is that most people lost because of bad money management. I dont know how many people would be willing to bet 1% and grind out results. Most people bet for a quick buck and that seems to be the problem.

I would really love to hear from someone who has done it. As I said, I'm not interested in betting for fun. I do that as a separate activity and thats without much research. what I AM keen on is knowing about people who have made a living out of this.

People who make a living from this will be willing to give you basic pointers and a broad outline of the approaches they use. They are not going to give you or anyone else detailed information in terms of key variables used in their statistical models (or handicapping) because that is where there edge is derived from and divulging it makes it disappear!

It is hard work, it does require a high degree of discipline and results do have to be ground out over the long term. There is no 'holy grail'.

As to why there are not more reputable services/touts, just ask yourself why a genuine winning player would have any need to sell anything.