WTO Online Gambling Decision due today

**exstatman** · 12-21-07, 01:28 AM

Stupid question, but what if the US simply flips the bird to the ruling if they don't like it?

**Seattle Slew** · 12-21-07, 01:30 AM

I think that's exactly what they will do.

Originally posted by exstatman

Stupid question, but what if the US simply flips the bird to the ruling if they don't like it?

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 01:36 AM

They probably would if its over $1 billion. But a few hundred million? chump change. They will be happy to get this one in the rear view mirror.

**idontlikerocks** · 12-21-07, 01:47 AM

is there some other tactic that can be employed to delay this result, or its consequences?

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 01:51 AM

JC can correct me if Im wrong but I was told this will end it with Antigua.

JC · 12-21-07, 05:37 AM

First of all, it's an annual figure that's coming out today, not a one time number.

Next, as that NYU Professor so eloquently pointed out at that last Congressional hearing, the sanctions are not supposed to be a way for the offending country to buy their way out of an adverse decision, they are meant to encourage the offending country to comply.

Antigua won the case. The US has failed to comply. Today's report is only about the amount of annual sanctions and the method. It's not a figure the US is obligated to write a check for.

To comply, the US has two choices.

1) Allow Antiguan gaming companies unfettered access to the US market without harassment.

2) Eliminate ALL remote gambling in the US, including horses, sports, and lotteries.

Of course, the US is free to negotiate something inbetween with Antigua.

John, you have come up from your earlier estimate of $125 million if I recall correctly. We'll see today.

Even of the number is $1, the US is just as out of compliance and needs to comply with this decision if they want the WTO to work.

**isetcap** · 12-21-07, 10:47 AM

I have stated before that I thought the number would be closer to Antigua's request than the US insult. That means something in the neighborhood of $2,000,000,000. The US has been flagrant in its disdain for these proceedings and the arbitration panel is not going to let them off the hook.

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 10:52 AM

Did I say $125 million?? OK I will stick with that although I picked $500 million already in this thread. Guess I'll work a stradle.

**RageWizard** · 12-21-07, 11:03 AM

Was Antigua able to prove that they make 3 billion off of the United States market? That sounds like a lot. If they take a 10% vig that would mean that the United States is wagering around 30 billion alone in Antigua.
If around 3 billion is wagered through Antigua's books and a 10% vig is expected for every dollar, I would award them $300 Million. That sounds like a proper number to me. This would be enough for the United States government to tell Antigua and the WTO to go **** off. If that happens what is the next move for the WTO and the nation of Antigua? Could they actually come up with something that would be punitive towards the United States with out some kind of strong arm Neocon action from the United States.

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 11:07 AM

WTO awards Antigua sanctions in U.S. gambling case

Reuters Friday December 21 2007

GENEVA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Antigua and Barbuda are entitled to levy $21 million a year in sanctions against the United States for being shut out of the U.S. online gambling market, a World Trade Organization (WTO) arbitrator ruled on Friday.
The tiny Caribbean nation can exercise the sanctions in intellectual property, such as films and music, for instance by lifting copyright protection, as well as in services, which includes sectors such as banking and telecommunications as well as gambling, he said.
Antigua had asked the WTO for permission to impose $3.44 billion in "cross-retaliation", allowing it to seek damages outside the original services sector. Washington had argued Antigua was entitled to only $500,000 in compensation.

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 11:07 AM

Pay the Unders

**Spike Spiegel** · 12-21-07, 12:18 PM

$21 million? Looks like a joke to me...

**Seattle Slew** · 12-21-07, 12:25 PM

I think we spent more in Iraq in the past hour.

**abacus30** · 12-21-07, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Seattle Slew

I think we spent more in Iraq in the past hour.

Hour... hell, try minute.

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 01:12 PM

The legal fees are probably in the $10 million range.

It was a noble try.

**BigGame** · 12-21-07, 01:21 PM

Guys, that's $21 million per year, as in open ended.

That's definitely a good return on the legal fees.

**ShamsWoof10** · 12-21-07, 01:26 PM

This JC guy really knows this topic well... His posts seems to be very solid and well organized in thought..

Anyway ....unless I am not fully understanding this today's ruling does not seem to be anything major..

**SBR_John** · 12-21-07, 01:28 PM

Yes its open ended but not even 1% what Antigua was hoping for and certainly not enough to cause the US to lose sleep over much less reconsider changing some laws to comply.

**Seattle Slew** · 12-21-07, 02:14 PM

Seriously, what type of ruling would have made the U.S. comply here? Even if they were awarded $1 billion, the U.S. just would have stalled/not paid or since there is no appeal, just paid up.

What did we expect? George Bush to hold a press conference and say:

"We respect the ruling of the WTO. As of Jan. 1, just in time for the New Year's bowl games and the start of the NFL playoffs, all U.S. citizens will now be able to legally wager on these games. As a football fan myself, I say to my fellow Americans, good luck and be wary of road favorites and big numbers in these bowl games."

**Seattle Slew** · 12-21-07, 02:15 PM

Another big winner here is the U.S. horse racing industry, which continues to get their free pass for internet wagering.

**BigGame** · 12-21-07, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

Yes its open ended but not even 1% what Antigua was hoping for and certainly not enough to cause the US to lose sleep over much less reconsider changing some laws to comply.

I agree that the US isn't going to lose any sleep over it.

But saying it's less than 1% isn't accurate. Over 50 years, that's a 1 Billion. That's close to a third of the total figure they asked for.

**DrunkenLullaby** · 12-21-07, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by BigGame

Over 50 years, that's a 1 Billion. That's close to a third of the total figure they asked for.

No, it's not. Time value of money.

**PokerDeath** · 12-21-07, 03:13 PM

US urges Antigua to delay WTO sanctions on Internet gambling

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States Friday urged Antigua to hold off on imposing sanctions authorized by the WTO in a dispute over online gambling, saying Washington was revising its WTO commitments.

"Once the process of clarifying the US schedule of commitments is complete, any issues in our bilateral dispute with Antigua will be moot, and there will no longer be any basis for suspending WTO commitments."

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icdh9Q_kfrAZTnf22OUpjZvuwefA

What do you suppose this means?

**RageWizard** · 12-21-07, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by PokerDeath

US urges Antigua to delay WTO sanctions on Internet gambling

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States Friday urged Antigua to hold off on imposing sanctions authorized by the WTO in a dispute over online gambling, saying Washington was revising its WTO commitments.

"Once the process of clarifying the US schedule of commitments is complete, any issues in our bilateral dispute with Antigua will be moot, and there will no longer be any basis for suspending WTO commitments."

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icdh9Q_kfrAZTnf22OUpjZvuwefA

What do you suppose this means?

Sounds like the U.S. is telling Antigua to hold off on sanctions until the U.S. sticks them with some B.S.

**BigGame** · 12-21-07, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by DrunkenLullaby

No, it's not. Time value of money.

I think we both can agree that 50 x $21M is greater than $21M, right?

The point is some were reading the $21m as a total figure when it's an annual figure.

**DrunkenLullaby** · 12-21-07, 05:39 PM

Of course.

I'm just saying that even a perpetuity of $21M/annum is probably worth about $500 million today, so to throw the $1 billion around is overstating it a bit.

**bigloser** · 12-21-07, 06:28 PM

New York Times has a good article

nytimes.com

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/22/business/worldbusiness/22gambling.html?ref=business

**isetcap** · 12-21-07, 07:45 PM

Pathetic.

**jjgold** · 12-21-07, 08:07 PM

USA will throw them some money and this all goes away and gambling ban gets stronger next year. USA will never allow online gambling,ect.

**SPECULATOR 13** · 12-21-07, 08:46 PM

Antigua will allow for it's territory to become a overt world center for piracy,therefore the Chinese and the indians will be able to open shop there and copy everything to their harts content way past that 21millions.Way before the year is over by the time next NFL season begins Americans will have full access to Internet gambling once again.This is not wishful thinking on my part but rational optimism base on self interested forces at work as we speak to make this reality.I will probably be living in Denver or Las Vegas by this time next year so i also want things to change.

**Ditaln1** · 12-21-07, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

USA will throw them some money and this all goes away and gambling ban gets stronger next year. USA will never allow online gambling,ect.

They won't allow it because they can not control how to tax it. If they could somehow come up with a way to get their tax money, you'd bet your a$$ they'd allow it.

**increasedodds** · 12-21-07, 10:27 PM

This is a big ruling for two reasons:

The $21 million will never be counted. If Antigua starts letting companies sell stuff for near free, far more than $21 million will be sold. Microsoft, DIsney, etc are going to be slitting congress's throat very soon.

The US is not in compliance until it does one of the two things JC stated or settles this case. As long as the US is out of compliance it will be near impossible for the US to push cases through the WTO. The US will enter compliance when it needs the WTO. The next time the US really needs the WTO for China, you can count on the US getting into compliance...

Sean

**bigloser** · 12-21-07, 11:06 PM

"On Friday, the United States trade representative issued a stern warning to Antigua to avoid acts of piracy, counterfeiting or violations of intellectual property rights while talks continue."

This doesnt sound like someone who is unconcerned. Antigua can do as they please now. Huge victory.

**Seattle Slew** · 12-22-07, 12:44 AM

Opening up Vegas casinos online would be easy as 1-2-3. Done. They'd have online accounts available within months. Tax money coming in by the billions. They still won't allow it. Ever.

Originally posted by Ditaln1

They won't allow it because they can not control how to tax it. If they could somehow come up with a way to get their tax money, you'd bet your a$$ they'd allow it.