[bubba]

How should this be graded? i had no at -1500 but book is claiming a missed 2 point conversion means yes is the winner. Thoughts?

Event Notes:

Wager is on if either team will miss a Extra Point in game. Overtime counts towards wager. Game must go 55 minutes for action.

[PAULYPOKER]

2 point conversion is not an extra point....

[bubba]

i agree. they had it correct after the game and changed it to a loss some time today. cant get em to fix it back so far...

funniest part is they quoted wiki in there explanation to me. cant get over that. haha

[Pareto]

If what they say is true, then I would say you played a bad line and the bet should be cancelled.

-1500 seems much too low if it also means the chance of a missed 2-point conversion.

Do you remember what the odds were on either "a successful 2 point conversion" or " will there be a 2-point conversion attemp"

[SportsMushroom]

-1500? really?

you're the guy that had 50K in betislands?

if they had players with 50K betting -1500 odds on flipcoin props I am now more certain than ever that they didnt go bust, they took the money and run away laughing, although if I was them I would keep booking your action

I see their point but at the end of the day the terms of the bet were ambiguous, probably not on purpose but they lost so they decided to freeroll you quoting wikipedia (unless it was 5dimes, they are the freeroll zen master and put out such props deliberately), so you betting in a prop with ambiguous terms is almost as horrific as taking -1500 on a coinflip, I hope you did not lose much

[bubba]

If what they say is true, then I would say you played a bad line and the bet should be cancelled.

-1500 seems much too low if it also means the chance of a missed 2-point conversion.

Do you remember what the odds were on either "a successful 2 point conversion" or " will there be a 2-point conversion attemp"

dont remember. 5dimes was in the -1800-2000 range for same missed extra point wager. I know mistakes happen grading but its especially frustrating when they grade it correct originally and go back and grade it wrong after.

For what its worth, they told me it will be corrected in the next 1/2 hour. hope it is.

[bubba]

-1500? really?

you're the guy that had 50K in betislands?

if they had players with 50K betting -1500 odds on flipcoin props I am now more certain than ever that they didnt go bust, they took the money and run away laughing, although if I was them I would keep booking your action

I see their point but at the end of the day the terms of the bet were ambiguous, probably not on purpose but they lost so they decided to freeroll you (unless it was 5dimes, they are the freeroll zen master), so you betting in a prop with ambiguous terms is almost as horrific as taking -1500 on a coinflip, I hope you did not lose much

-1500 could be the sharp side on a wager just as easily as +1500 could be a sucker bet. Terms were not ambiguous, it clearly stated extra point.

[bubba]

wager properly corrected

[SportsMushroom]

as I said, coinflip bet, one step to the left from the kicker, one slip from the guy holding the ball, one defender getting away and blocking that shit, -1500 on this prop is not sharp


and I guarantee you this was not a missgrade, they graded it as a win and then they consiously decided to grade it as a loss

they only thing that saved you was the fact that they did not have anything about the specific prop in their rules and had to quote wikipedia, you won on a technicality

and winning on a technicality means -1500 was bad desicion on this prop

[bubba]

as I said, coinflip bet, one step to the left from the kicker, one slip from the guy holding the ball, one defender getting away and blocking that shit, -1500 on this prop is not sharp


and I guarantee you this was not a missgrade, they graded it as a win and then they consiously decided to grade it as a loss

they only thing that saved you was the fact that they did not have anything about the specific prop in their rules and had to quote wikipedia, you won on a technicality

and winning on a technicality means -1500 was bad desicion on this prop

calling it a coin flip is laughable. calling my wager a bad decision is fair but please bring some numbers to back it up. Im not claiming its a good bet or a bad bet. Please enlighten me with some etxra point STATISTICS proving the wager was bad. thank you.

[mr.ed]

An extra point is missed in about 1 out of every 16 games, so looks like your are odds were right on. They were probably trying to lure in "yes" bettors at 8-1 or 10-1 for the miss and weren't giving away any value to sharps of the "No miss" by putting the number at -1500. The fact that it was in a dome probably gave your wager a little bit of value.

[indio]

calling it a coin flip is laughable. calling my wager a bad decision is fair but please bring some numbers to back it up. Im not claiming its a good bet or a bad bet. Please enlighten me with some etxra point STATISTICS proving the wager was bad. thank you.

Consider the source. SportsMushroom has the IQ of mushroom soup. He constantly embarrasses himself with his comments, especially when they are math related.

To get a quick accurate line, you'd need the expected PAT conversion rates of the kickers and the expected TD's/PAT tries expected. Doing this in quick method, we know the PAT conversion rate is .99, and I'm guessing that with a total of 47, the expected TD's were just a shade under 6. Around 1/19 TD's will have a 2 pt try, so let's just say that the expected PAT tries for the game is 5.5.

.99 y2 5.5 = .9462, so -1758 is probably close to an accurate line for this prop. As another poster correctly summarized, the books are going for the squares betting this YES at +800 or +1000 I'm sure. -1500 is certainly rarely a bad bet, as that is equal to a .9375 chance. You would need 7 PAT tries in a game at a .990 expectation before you are -ev in this bet.

As far as 2 point conversions go, quickly looking at 10 years worth of games, there is approx. a .33 chance that a 2 point conversion will be tried in a game (obviously coaching tendencies and scoring rate will make this vary per individual game). The success rate is around .47. So, we can assume at .33 x .53, that there is around a .1749 chance of a missed 2 point try occurring in a game, which means there is no way this scenario could have ever been included in your bet.

[bubba]

Consider the source. SportsMushroom has the IQ of mushroom soup. He constantly embarrasses himself with his comments, especially when they are math related.

To get a quick accurate line, you'd need the expected PAT conversion rates of the kickers and the expected TD's/PAT tries expected. Doing this in quick method, we know the PAT conversion rate is .99, and I'm guessing that with a total of 47, the expected TD's were just a shade under 6. Around 1/19 TD's will have a 2 pt try, so let's just say that the expected PAT tries for the game is 5.5.

.99 y2 5.5 = .9462, so -1758 is probably close to an accurate line for this prop. As another poster correctly summarized, the books are going for the squares betting this YES at +800 or +1000 I'm sure. -1500 is certainly rarely a bad bet, as that is equal to a .9375 chance. You would need 7 PAT tries in a game at a .990 expectation before you are -ev in this bet.

As far as 2 point conversions go, quickly looking at 10 years worth of games, there is approx. a .33 chance that a 2 point conversion will be tried in a game (obviously coaching tendencies and scoring rate will make this vary per individual game). The success rate is around .47. So, we can assume at .33 x .53, that there is around a .1749 chance of a missed 2 point try occurring in a game, which means there is no way this scenario could have ever been included in your bet.

thanks for the math and the info on mushroom. I didnt recognize him.

As for my thinking on the wager, I dont remember seeing one missed EP all year. I know there were some but i figured it was less than 1 a week for sure. i liked -1500 but did not do any math. I did 1500 to win 100, if you gave me your math ahead of time INDIO, I would have bet to win 3 or 500. Trying to get back my stolen betislands money somehow...

Thanks for the input

[daringly]

What do the rules say?

[indio]

thanks for the math and the info on mushroom. I didnt recognize him.

As for my thinking on the wager, I dont remember seeing one missed EP all year. I know there were some but i figured it was less than 1 a week for sure. i liked -1500 but did not do any math. I did 1500 to win 100, if you gave me your math ahead of time INDIO, I would have bet to win 3 or 500. Trying to get back my stolen betislands money somehow...

Thanks for the input

Even though you were most likely +ev on this prop, that doesn't necessarily mean it was a good bet. When dealing with bets giving only a 6% yield, you must factor in standard deviation and variance. Essentially, you'd need multiple bet amounts and numerous opportunities before you could consider these really good plays. Since this bet is traditionally offered only a few times a year (at least I don't think you can bet this every week), there is a risk in betting too much on one occurrence that just wouldn't be worth the reward. However, since I doubt a book would take a single wager on this prop for 50k, and I'm sure you would never bet 50k on one bet just to make $3,300, I don't think it would be that big of a deal either way.

[princecharles]

here's THE question:

What would have happened if a team lined up to kick the extra point, but bad snap so the holder takes off and runs it in for two points. Or tries to run it in but fails?

kicker never touched the ball with his foot.

would this have counted as an unsuccessful / successful two point conversion?

it can't be both. (meaning it can't settle a two point conversion prop AND settle an extra point prop in with a single play).

would LOVE to hear how this would have been handled.
great question for Vegas Hilton who are the standard of props and fair prop grades.

[wrongturn]

The botched kick turned into 2pt try has happened before, on a Dallas playoff game? Some books graded one way, some the other way.

[increasedodds]

pinnacle had 2pt conversion made at about +400 and tried at about +200.

This bet was clearly for a missed kick at -1500. Not sure what happens if they lined up to kick and didnt

[krk1030]

Clearly you are in the right.

The line would not be near -1500 if it was counting 2 pt tries.

[indio]

here's THE question:

What would have happened if a team lined up to kick the extra point, but bad snap so the holder takes off and runs it in for two points. Or tries to run it in but fails?

kicker never touched the ball with his foot.

would this have counted as an unsuccessful / successful two point conversion?

it can't be both. (meaning it can't settle a two point conversion prop AND settle an extra point prop in with a single play).

would LOVE to hear how this would have been handled.
great question for Vegas Hilton who are the standard of props and fair prop grades.

Any aborted PAT try where the ball is never kicked is considered a 2 pt try by the NFL. But books can make their own rules on any bet, one can only hope that they list them,or default any stats bets to an official source.

[blackbox]

The wording of the wager is incorrect-should have been worded as will their be a failure to make a 1 or 2 point pat to cover their intentions.

[SportsMushroom]

Consider the source. SportsMushroom has the IQ of mushroom soup. He constantly embarrasses himself with his comments, especially when they are math related.

To get a quick accurate line, you'd need the expected PAT conversion rates of the kickers and the expected TD's/PAT tries expected. Doing this in quick method, we know the PAT conversion rate is .99, and I'm guessing that with a total of 47, the expected TD's were just a shade under 6. Around 1/19 TD's will have a 2 pt try, so let's just say that the expected PAT tries for the game is 5.5.

.99 y2 5.5 = .9462, so -1758 is probably close to an accurate line for this prop. As another poster correctly summarized, the books are going for the squares betting this YES at +800 or +1000 I'm sure. -1500 is certainly rarely a bad bet, as that is equal to a .9375 chance. You would need 7 PAT tries in a game at a .990 expectation before you are -ev in this bet.

As far as 2 point conversions go, quickly looking at 10 years worth of games, there is approx. a .33 chance that a 2 point conversion will be tried in a game (obviously coaching tendencies and scoring rate will make this vary per individual game). The success rate is around .47. So, we can assume at .33 x .53, that there is around a .1749 chance of a missed 2 point try occurring in a game, which means there is no way this scenario could have ever been included in your bet.

Even though you were most likely +ev on this prop, that doesn't necessarily mean it was a good bet. When dealing with bets giving only a 6% yield, you must factor in standard deviation and variance. Essentially, you'd need multiple bet amounts and numerous opportunities before you could consider these really good plays. Since this bet is traditionally offered only a few times a year (at least I don't think you can bet this every week), there is a risk in betting too much on one occurrence that just wouldn't be worth the reward. However, since I doubt a book would take a single wager on this prop for 50k, and I'm sure you would never bet 50k on one bet just to make $3,300, I don't think it would be that big of a deal either way.

wow so you can actually perform basic mathermatics, I guess you showed me

you do the math and say its an +ev bet and then in the same sentence say its not worth the rewardand you are trying to insult my iq


I think there is such a thing as being so smart that you literally turn stupid, you spent god knows how long to research and post all that crap just to tell the guy exactly what I told him in 3 seconds, that it was a bad bet, the variance makes it -ev? no shit watson? if it was a good bet he wouldnt have been in here sweating this bet and shitting his pants

he is a guy with 50K in one book, if he doesnt already know that -1500 lines are unprofitable then he must have deposited that money cause he sure did not win it. although keeping money, especially that kind of money, in an organization which operates outside the boundaries of the law and with no transparency regarding ownership and liquidity is a sign that you are not as sharp as you would like to think

[the_orangekat]

I would interpret it as it should only apply to PAT's.

[bubba]

here's THE question:

What would have happened if a team lined up to kick the extra point, but bad snap so the holder takes off and runs it in for two points. Or tries to run it in but fails?

kicker never touched the ball with his foot.

would this have counted as an unsuccessful / successful two point conversion?

it can't be both. (meaning it can't settle a two point conversion prop AND settle an extra point prop in with a single play).

would LOVE to hear how this would have been handled.
great question for Vegas Hilton who are the standard of props and fair prop grades.

its no question. unless stated otherwise, the book needs to go by offical nfl rules. a botched snap runback is not a missed extra point. There is a stats for made and missed extra points. Seems pretty black and white to me.

[bubba]

wow so you can actually perform basic mathermatics, I guess you showed me

you do the math and say its an +ev bet and then in the same sentence say its not worth the rewardand you are trying to insult my iq


I think there is such a thing as being so smart that you literally turn stupid, you spent god knows how long to research and post all that crap just to tell the guy exactly what I told him in 3 seconds, that it was a bad bet, the variance makes it -ev? no shit watson? if it was a good bet he wouldnt have been in here sweating this bet and shitting his pants

he is a guy with 50K in one book, if he doesnt already know that -1500 lines are unprofitable then he must have deposited that money cause he sure did not win it. although keeping money, especially that kind of money, in an organization which operates outside the boundaries of the law and with no transparency regarding ownership and liquidity is a sign that you are not as sharp as you would like to think

can you please explain to me how variance can make a wager -ev?? I always thought expected value looks at the isolated incident and actually does not take into account variance at all. But i am no expert. Please explain.

And please explain why -1500 lines are unprofitable. Enlighten me please!

I disagree with both these points but I have been wrong before and have an open mind so please teach me. ty

[jgilmartin]

-1500 lines are only unprofitable if they win less than ~93.75% of the time. Would you bet -1500 on the sun coming up tomorrow?

[brumbies]

Would you bet -1500 on the sun coming up tomorrow?

exaggerate much plus poor analogy. name me any sportsbook that gives you -1500 on something that is 100 per cent.