How do sportsbooks deal with injuries that affect the odds significantly?

[haberbosch]

During the NBA playoffs for game 5 of Clippers @ Jazz, Kawhi Leonard (the best player on the Clippers) was listed as a game time decision. Most bookies assumed he would play and the opening line was Jazz -2.5.

At around 10 a.m. on game day the line was still -2.5 when a national NBA reporter (Brian Windhorst) who doesn't usually tweet out injury news tweeted that Kawhi had a knee injury that would likely keep him out for the rest of the series.

I immediately looked up the odds and the game was still at Jazz -2.5 at all the bookies I use. It stayed that way for another 5 minutes as most injury news sites still hadn't picked up on that tweet from the reporter.

After 5 minutes the line was taken down at most books and was then updated to Jazz -8 and closed at Jazz -9 before tip time.

I was lucky to get the Jazz -2.5 line but bad luck would have it that they failed to cover with all that closing line value . But my question is how do bookies deal with bets made right around when injury news happens but before they can update the line?

Are the punters banned forever?

Do they get limited for this behavior?

Is it considered steam chasing?

Is this behavior considered bannable by sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle and Bookmaker?

[Sea Turtle]

How many times you want to start this same topic?

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3656497-does-pinnacle-ban-steam-chasers.html#post30230453

[Sea Turtle]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3667474-betting-based-injury-news-bannable-offense.html#post30422959

[DontTailMe]

LOL

[Optional]

Betting on injury news before the book moves is fine.

Being able to find injury news before the book consistently will see you booted at a lot of books.

But simply chasing steam, and then coming up with some justification how that particular bet was just you finding a random reporter who had the news first, won't work long term I don't think.

[PharaohUB]

You can probably get away with it on exchanges but standard sports books will boot you

[RonPaul2008]

Betting on injury news before the book moves is fine.

Being able to find injury news before the book consistently will see you booted at a lot of books.

But simply chasing steam, and then coming up with some justification how that particular bet was just you finding a random reporter who had the news first, won't work long term I don't think.

It's easy to get that information at the exact same time as any bookie.

[haberbosch]

Betting on injury news before the book moves is fine.

Being able to find injury news before the book consistently will see you booted at a lot of books.

But simply chasing steam, and then coming up with some justification how that particular bet was just you finding a random reporter who had the news first, won't work long term I don't think.

Lets say 25% of you bets but the 60% of your money is on injury affected games before the book moves the line. Is there any book where this would be acceptable behavior?

[KVB]

Lets say 25% of you bets but the 60% of your money is on injury affected games before the book moves the line. Is there any book where this would be acceptable behavior?

That depends, I can answer your question exactly, but first I want to know if you think you're getting the information before the book or if the book is just slow to move in general.

Those are two different things. In any situation, it's a slow move situation. You are not getting the info before the book could, if they wanted to.

So then it depends on the books being used.

If you are max betting, or hitting limits, on any sport at, say Pinny, or BM, and 60% of the money you bet is on injury games before the line moves then there could very well be an account review triggered.

Books do not but also do generally rely on players to tell them when injuries are occurring, but if the same players are involved, and if it's happening often, they will review that behavior.

If you're using podunk mickey mouse book then the same thing could happened, where an account review shows you are beating the lines on those games.

So you really are looking at an account review, and if you think you're getting the info before others can, then you are likely running into cofirmation bias supporting the notion that you are actually getting the info before everyone else in the world.

In the end though, you likely aren't lasting very long with 60% of your monies bet on the subset of injury games in the major sports, regardless of whether you beat the close or line moves. The books will welcome your action, except the podunk book, the one that actually will review the account.

The larger book won't be reviewing much because in reality, the real world, you will not be hitting the lines hard before they move them on injury games, at least not significantly enough to matter. Not to them.

[haberbosch]

That depends, I can answer your question exactly, but first I want to know if you think you're getting the information before the book or if the book is just slow to move in general.

Those are two different things. In any situation, it's a slow move situation. You are not getting the info before the book could, if they wanted to.

So then it depends on the books being used.

If you are max betting, or hitting limits, on any sport at, say Pinny, or BM, and 60% of the money you bet is on injury games before the line moves then there could very well be an account review triggered.

Books do not but also do generally rely on players to tell them when injuries are occurring, but if the same players are involved, and if it's happening often, they will review that behavior.

If you're using podunk mickey mouse book then the same thing could happened, where an account review shows you are beating the lines on those games.

So you really are looking at an account review, and if you think you're getting the info before others can, then you are likely running into cofirmation bias supporting the notion that you are actually getting the info before everyone else in the world.

In the end though, you likely aren't lasting very long with 60% of your monies bet on the subset of injury games in the major sports, regardless of whether you beat the close or line moves. The books will welcome your action, except the podunk book, the one that actually will review the account.

The larger book won't be reviewing much because in reality, the real world, you will not be hitting the lines hard before they move them on injury games, at least not significantly enough to matter. Not to them.

I don't have an inside source on NBA news if that's what you mean. I just have a way of getting the public injury news from either small beat reporters or press conferences before it is made mainstream by accounts like @fantasylabsnba and other aggregators.

I think most nba bettors follow @fantasylabsnba which is in general a great way about getting NBA injury news. When I first started betting on the NBA this season I used their twitter notifications along with a mickey mouse book to build up bankroll quickly based on injury news. This got me banned within two months but was able to make a few thousand.

Then I decided to cut out the @fantasylabsnba middle man and get the same information they got from the primary less well known sources on twitter so was able to place bets 30 seconds - 2 minutes before @fantasylabsnba sent out their injury tweets. For example this Mavs small time beat writer tweets the injury news for Mavs games at least 30 seconds before @fantasylabsnba gets the news from her and in that time frame I can make a decision if the news is worth enough pts on the spread to place a bet before the news becomes mainstream. Her initial tweet gets a small fraction of the traction that the more mainstream channels get.

I haven't moved on to the bigger books like Pinnacle or BM yet I don't bet higher than $1500 on any game so I'm just trying to dominate the mickey mouse books first then when my bankroll is big enough move on to those books.

My question to you is will I be banned at Pinnacle or BM if let's say 25% of my action or money is on injury affected games before the line is able to move to account for the injury?

Do they place lags on pregame bets to avoid getting pounded on injury news?

What would be the result of an account review for this behaviour? Getting banned from the book?

[PharaohUB]

Why don’t you just play at an exchange ?

[haberbosch]

Why don’t you just play at an exchange ?

I'm new to this and betfair is banned in Canada.

Are there any reputable exchanges that allow Canadian customers.

Let's say I get news that Luka (who was doubtful) is now playing tonight. This news comes from a small time mavs beat writer who is tweeting what rick carlisle is saying in his pregame presser that isn't public. In 30 seconds all the aggregators like fantasylabsnba and others will have "Luka (previously doubtful) is playing tonight". The line will then move 3pts in the mavs favour in a minute or less after the aggregator tweets the news.
My question is can I place the bet in that 30 second window on an exchange or does it take longer to process than a typical sportsbook?

Because seeing Luka is playing to placing a bet takes less than 10 seconds with a typical sportsbook. Can I do that on an exchange as well?

[KVB]

Haber if you are betting into the market because you think you are reading tweets faster than the rest of the marketplace then the books will welcome your action with open arms.

They love you, in fact.

[DontTailMe]

Haber if you are betting into the market because you think you are reading tweets faster than the rest of the marketplace then the books will welcome your action with open arms.

They love you, in fact.

I don't do it but it's definitely possible. I challenge the idea that books are getting information sooner than Twitter. If they are, they aren't paying much attention to it. Even at some of the big books, you can still find stale lines when news hits if you're quick.

[haberbosch]

I don't do it but it's definitely possible. I challenge the idea that books are getting information sooner than Twitter. If they are, they aren't paying much attention to it. Even at some of the big books, you can still find stale lines when news hits if you're quick.

Yup. A tweet from a reporter at the stadium watching the game or at the pregame presser or in the lockerroom is like the main source of all NBA injury news in the regular season.

[Optional]

You're just going to have to try and see what happens.

There isnt really a good way to hide what you want to do in the long term. So if you think you have an edge, go hard and make what you can whilst you can would be my plan.

[ronald]

Book the bet, pay the bet. If you're getting beat to steam moves then get better software or hire better line managers.

Now, if a line is painted +400 and your book has it at +4000, then it's obviously a clerical error. Don't expect to get paid on that bet.

[KVB]

I don't do it but it's definitely possible. I challenge the idea that books are getting information sooner than Twitter. If they are, they aren't paying much attention to it. Even at some of the big books, you can still find stale lines when news hits if you're quick.

Of course it’s possible.

That’s why I said the books will welcome the bettor with open arms.

There’s more to beating the books than getting the jump on injury news, which has not been shown to be profitable anyway.

Books will take his action all day long and twice on Sunday. Until they don’t, which is too far off on the horizon to matter, if at all.