There's this USA soccer game that opened at -140 on the asian books. One guy said the home team is 7-1-2 and the guests are 1-1-11 so it's an easy home win. Throughout the day the price dropped to -232. I avoided the game because I thought it's a trap, there's no way the bookies would put up a stupidly high price like that if they didn't know something. Apperently it wasn't a trap, regardless of how it turns out. I guess checking the w/l ratios is one way to beat the bookie.
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It's not a trap. Happens very often. People move the line. For example let's say US is going to play tomorrow against a very bad nation. If you open the line right now 24 hours before the game than you might see US -150. If you open an hour before the game is going to be -250. That's because bets pile up on the favorite team and the line moves.Comment -
Yeah, people move the line because the bookies made a horrible opening line. But if they can make such egregious errors then that means they're not so sharp after all. There are many big public favorites where the line doesn't move at all because the price is about right.Comment -
Both sides also fielded EXTREMELY young and inexperienced lineups; nothing like what is usually on the pitch for these matchups..
Take out the Red Card and Mexico either wins, or its a 0-0 drawComment -
Books employ specialists to handle events such as soccer. Some use a whole team of people to cover 1 sport. However, even a team of specialists can't stay up to date with every team in 1 country, let alone the whole planet. In England alone there are 4 divisions with a total of 92 professional teams. The lower down you go the less money gets wagered on the teams. Consequently there's less money invested by books on someone to stay on top of things at those levels. Odds compilers have to guess what the odds should be on teams they rarely watch and some they've never heard of. All they can do is use league tables and recent form to 'guess' what the prices should be. They don't know when 1 team has a lot of injuries or is saving themselves for the next game against a bitter rival. Beating the odds is 'comparatively' easy. Lines can be off by a lot and a small amount of expert money will move the line a long way. However, books protect themselves by having very low limits and people who frequently bet this level of soccer are constantly subject to having their accounts closed.Last edited by semibluff; 09-12-18, 05:25 PM.Comment -
draw or fav lose?Comment -
What "sucks" is when they accuse you of shot taking or "scalping" bad lines. Lol, that's the point as proven here.Comment -
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Yeah, I've seen something similar. You can see the appeal: an almost entirely automated sportsbook, no linesmakers needed, just copy pinny, maybe add a few points of juice.
Of course, every so often you see one of them go under, which implies it isn't quite so easy. Anyone remember Heroes?Comment -
To be fair: In most sports bet365 is actually the book that opens a market and all other books copy, even Pinnacle and Asian books sometimes.Comment
