Hello!
I am working on a sport betting system based exclusively on a database with the historical results of handicappers as well as their wagers in real-time.
In short, I follow the bets of the most profitable handicappers depending on their past results.
I have compilled all the data in spreadsheets and I am running all sorts of statistics about the handicappers.
I have first tested my system without going very deep into maths and got promissing results, so I want to go one step further and make some serious statistics calculations and simulations in order to optimize my system.
I have bought some statistic books but I get lost in alot of useless topics that's why I am looking for an advice on the best book that would help me to solve these particular problems mathematically.
Here are some examples of the kind of problems I am confronted to:
- Mr X has made 5 000 wagers with an average ROI of 4%.
Mr X gives me a tip on an event with a 1,4 odds. What is my expectation on this bet given the informations I have about Mr X.
Most generally how to rate mathematically the bettors based on their performance and the number of wagers I have about them in my database.
- How likely is it that Mr X. is in fact a lucky looser and how should this impact my bets exactly?
- How much of a drop in the odds between the price the handicapper got and the price I get is still acceptable?
- What is the optimal amount to assign to a bet in order to lower maximally my variance and optimize my profit depending on the bettor performance, the number of historical bets I have about him, the size of my bankroll, the number of bets I am able to take everyday, etc...(I guess this would have something to do with the Kelly Criterion but how to apply it optimally in my case...?)
I am working with Excel so if you have also a book that explain how to do these tasks in excel that would also be great.
Thanks for your help!
I am working on a sport betting system based exclusively on a database with the historical results of handicappers as well as their wagers in real-time.
In short, I follow the bets of the most profitable handicappers depending on their past results.
I have compilled all the data in spreadsheets and I am running all sorts of statistics about the handicappers.
I have first tested my system without going very deep into maths and got promissing results, so I want to go one step further and make some serious statistics calculations and simulations in order to optimize my system.
I have bought some statistic books but I get lost in alot of useless topics that's why I am looking for an advice on the best book that would help me to solve these particular problems mathematically.
Here are some examples of the kind of problems I am confronted to:
- Mr X has made 5 000 wagers with an average ROI of 4%.
Mr X gives me a tip on an event with a 1,4 odds. What is my expectation on this bet given the informations I have about Mr X.
Most generally how to rate mathematically the bettors based on their performance and the number of wagers I have about them in my database.
- How likely is it that Mr X. is in fact a lucky looser and how should this impact my bets exactly?
- How much of a drop in the odds between the price the handicapper got and the price I get is still acceptable?
- What is the optimal amount to assign to a bet in order to lower maximally my variance and optimize my profit depending on the bettor performance, the number of historical bets I have about him, the size of my bankroll, the number of bets I am able to take everyday, etc...(I guess this would have something to do with the Kelly Criterion but how to apply it optimally in my case...?)
I am working with Excel so if you have also a book that explain how to do these tasks in excel that would also be great.
Thanks for your help!