Into The Weekend w/ BetDSI 11/15 - Sharp and Public Action NCAAF Week 12, NFL Week 11

**jrose2106** · 11-16-12, 01:11 AM

I think I was the guy who asked the question about gameday movement, thats sweet peter asked the question, thanks SBR

**steady hustlin** · 11-16-12, 02:48 AM

Thanks to Peter for facilitating good calls on a weekly basis and thanks to Brent for sharing the information from your book. If you get a chance or feel like answering: a) To Brent: do you ever bet on any of these games (aside from essentially betting when you are in a position that requires you to take a decision and betting as simply being a bookmaker in general) based on movements, strong bettors liking a side, intuition from doing this for awhile, etc.? b) I don't think any book would ever want to answer so I should probably save it, but what does the handle on a big offshore book look like during football season in comparison to, say, the handle at the Bellagio? c) Do you guys ever lay off? For example, if you had 270k on one side and 25k on another, would you minimize risk? In doing so, that assumes there is an out for such situations as I would imagine is the case. Happy thanksgiving.

**hockey216** · 11-16-12, 03:41 AM

jacksonville getting a lot of points bu i dont got the balls. they are so bad.

**jrose2106** · 11-16-12, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by hockey216

jacksonville getting a lot of points bu i dont got the balls. they are so bad.

that was the thinking vs green bay too man but we saw how that played out, theres a reason the sharps came in with some action on +16, if I see it at 17 i would take them, or 16.5 + .5 hook to 17, I think as peter said the under has best value, I'm thinking 24-9 hou, with that being said, wouldnt be shocked to see 31-3 hou, lol

**no1here** · 11-16-12, 08:01 AM

Excellent stuff here, thanks!

**allin1** · 11-16-12, 08:03 AM

Thank you

**k13** · 11-16-12, 12:05 PM

All this money on one side and lines not moving at all...lol (GB, N.O. TB, Cincy)

**chuff** · 11-16-12, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by k13

All this money on one side and lines not moving at all...lol (GB, N.O. TB, Cincy)

I think if you've been following along you will know by now that they do not move just to balance their action - the preference is to be on same side as the sharps (eg Detroit, Oakland) and he said Cincy was a Public side, not a Sharp side, so they aren't going to move just because Joe Public likes them, if Public wants to lay it they will let that happen and sit needing the home dog.

The underlying theme seems to be (to me):
Why move on Public action just to attract Sharp action? Makes no sense. I like how he runs things there from a business stand point. Why take the Public's losing money just to hand it over to the Sharps and only collect the juice? Take bigger decisions and trust the sharps will beat the public over the longterm.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-16-12, 04:27 PM

Arkansas lacks motivation, while the #'s available with Arkansas motivates the "Sharps".

**Timmay** · 11-17-12, 02:59 AM

I love these videos.

**allin1** · 11-17-12, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by Timmay

I love these videos.

I love them too, but I keep reminding myself that bookies are out there to get our money.

**k13** · 11-17-12, 06:01 AM

Originally posted by chuff

I think if you've been following along you will know by now that they do not move just to balance their action - the preference is to be on same side as the sharps (eg Detroit, Oakland) and he said Cincy was a Public side, not a Sharp side, so they aren't going to move just because Joe Public likes them, if Public wants to lay it they will let that happen and sit needing the home dog.

The underlying theme seems to be (to me):
Why move on Public action just to attract Sharp action? Makes no sense. I like how he runs things there from a business stand point. Why take the Public's losing money just to hand it over to the Sharps and only collect the juice? Take bigger decisions and trust the sharps will beat the public over the longterm.

Yeah I know but they won't move their lines even if sharps hit them because all they do is copy and paste lines anyway.

If Pinnacle has GB -2.5 and BetDSI get hits hard by sharps on Packers, you think they'll move the line to -4.5? Never.

**chuff** · 11-17-12, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by k13

Yeah I know but they won't move their lines even if sharps hit them because all they do is copy and paste lines anyway.

If Pinnacle has GB -2.5 and BetDSI get hits hard by sharps on Packers, you think they'll move the line to -4.5? Never.

Well again this makes no sense and is not accurate.

I bet at DSI and 5D almost exclusively, plus a no-name credit place) and DSI often has different lines a ton of the time - so the "copy and paste" comment is just wrong. If Pinny is -3 -103 on GBay (like they are and *not* -2.5) and the sharps are on Detroit, why do they have to be same as Pinny. First you say they just copy and paste, yet they are different, and why Pinny.

DSI has GBay -3 -120, 5D is -3 -115, CRIS is -3 -110 so every one of those three has a different line AND DSI is the highest (ie. they are continuing to get GBay money). Whole board is -4.5 on New Orleans and DSI is -5 - this "copy and paste" stuff is nonsense.

**steady hustlin** · 11-17-12, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by chuff

Well again this makes no sense and is not accurate.

I bet at DSI and 5D almost exclusively, plus a no-name credit place) and DSI often has different lines a ton of the time - so the "copy and paste" comment is just wrong. If Pinny is -3 -103 on GBay (like they are and *not* -2.5) and the sharps are on Detroit, why do they have to be same as Pinny. First you say they just copy and paste, yet they are different, and why Pinny.

DSI has GBay -3 -120, 5D is -3 -115, CRIS is -3 -110 so every one of those three has a different line AND DSI is the highest (ie. they are continuing to get GBay money). Whole board is -4.5 on New Orleans and DSI is -5 - this "copy and paste" stuff is nonsense.

Why do they all move at the same time then?

**pokernut9999** · 11-17-12, 09:23 PM

.........

**chuff** · 11-17-12, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by steady hustlin

Why do they all move at the same time then?

This is pretty basic stuff I believe, but if a book is balanced on a game and every shop on Don Best moves from -3.5 to -4, then any book balanced or with money on the favorite will move with them to -4. if they have heavy dog money, they likely will not move until they balance - if that is their philosophy. But if a book is balanced why stay at -3.5 if the world is -4 , all you will do is attract favorite money.

Another case is syndicates - they all fire as much as they can at a specific number/spread/price - and it is coordinated all at the same time (like the Billy Walters episiode on 20/20 or Nigtlime (?) showed u) to get the price and fill the quota. So when all books move, thats another example of why - they are all getting bet by one of various syndicates at the same time on the same game.

**paco** · 11-18-12, 02:41 AM

Looks like sharps and public got buried with Oregon over. Books needed that under tha most and got it

**steady hustlin** · 11-18-12, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by chuff

This is pretty basic stuff I believe, but if a book is balanced on a game and every shop on Don Best moves from -3.5 to -4, then any book balanced or with money on the favorite will move with them to -4. if they have heavy dog money, they likely will not move until they balance - if that is their philosophy. But if a book is balanced why stay at -3.5 if the world is -4 , all you will do is attract favorite money.

Another case is syndicates - they all fire as much as they can at a specific number/spread/price - and it is coordinated all at the same time (like the Billy Walters episiode on 20/20 or Nigtlime (?) showed u) to get the price and fill the quota. So when all books move, thats another example of why - they are all getting bet by one of various syndicates at the same time on the same game.

Nice reply. I feel like they move in correspondence with one another so often that they cannot always be "balanced." If the book liked the +3.5 side enough, maybe they had some good info or something, then why not attract more action from those looking to lay it. Of course, most don't take this type of gambling mentality as it probably is not conducive to long term success. Also, because of how synchronized they seem to be, someone might catch on if they did do this and have all the more reason to unload on the dog. Of course, that's just hypothetical. Most bookmakers I have heard just want to be balanced like you say. And when I asked my question, I also failed to take into account that many of them are on the same money i.e., the cris network etc.

**byronbb** · 11-18-12, 03:25 AM

Originally posted by chuff

Well again this makes no sense and is not accurate.

I bet at DSI and 5D almost exclusively, plus a no-name credit place) and DSI often has different lines a ton of the time - so the "copy and paste" comment is just wrong. If Pinny is -3 -103 on GBay (like they are and *not* -2.5) and the sharps are on Detroit, why do they have to be same as Pinny. First you say they just copy and paste, yet they are different, and why Pinny.

DSI has GBay -3 -120, 5D is -3 -115, CRIS is -3 -110 so every one of those three has a different line AND DSI is the highest (ie. they are continuing to get GBay money). Whole board is -4.5 on New Orleans and DSI is -5 - this "copy and paste" stuff is nonsense.

The GB game is interesting. DSI obviously taking a ton of GB action and they are forced to shade the line. SIA at a +4.5 Bodog +3.5 -115. Square books scared of the GB money imo.

**chuff** · 11-18-12, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by byronbb

The GB game is interesting. DSI obviously taking a ton of GB action and they are forced to shade the line. SIA at a +4.5 Bodog +3.5 -115. Square books scared of the GB money imo.

GBay line has been crazy, dropped all the way to -3 -110 , now back to -3 -115 or -3 -120 at the places I see. Looks like a definite Sharp-Public split. I think one thing i have learned from Brent's videos is that there are plenty of 'squares' that stil have alot of money to bet and shops that work to balance will move off that big bet regardless of the source - whereas others will not depending on their tolerance/philosophy for risk. This is a great segment and good comment/thread from guys here make it even better.

**pokernut9999** · 11-18-12, 07:38 PM

Peter predicts all 4 public wins .......way to go Peter

**k13** · 11-18-12, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by chuff

Well again this makes no sense and is not accurate.

I bet at DSI and 5D almost exclusively, plus a no-name credit place) and DSI often has different lines a ton of the time - so the "copy and paste" comment is just wrong. If Pinny is -3 -103 on GBay (like they are and *not* -2.5) and the sharps are on Detroit, why do they have to be same as Pinny. First you say they just copy and paste, yet they are different, and why Pinny.

DSI has GBay -3 -120, 5D is -3 -115, CRIS is -3 -110 so every one of those three has a different line AND DSI is the highest (ie. they are continuing to get GBay money). Whole board is -4.5 on New Orleans and DSI is -5 - this "copy and paste" stuff is nonsense.

If they all have -3 and Pinnacle moves to -7, you think these mickey mouse books are staying at -3 regardless of what action they have?

**DirkDiggs** · 11-21-12, 01:06 AM

Of course books move to balance action. If you are a book, what is better than having balanced action before kickoff?

Nothing. Sit back and collect.