England/Ecuador & Portugal/Netherlands

**tacomax** · 06-24-06, 06:11 PM

You must be looking at Pinny's odds.

Remember that +798 is for Ecuador to come out winners after the regulation 90 minutes (so if it goes to extra time then you lose the bet, whatever the ultimate outcome). The +398 is for Ecuador to go through either in regulation time, after extra time or after penalties. FYI England have a 1-4 record in their last 5 penalty shootouts, I think.

As you saw today, anything can happen in the knockout stages (Mexico outplaying the favourites Argentina for a lot of the match) so I'd take a punt on the +798 if I was putting on a bet here. At least if you win, you win big and +398 looks like pretty poor odds if you ask me.

**tacomax** · 06-24-06, 06:15 PM

I've checked Betfair who are offering the equivalent of about +428 (after commission) for Ecuador to go through which is a bit better.

**mad** · 06-24-06, 09:15 PM

Yep, FWIW I like Ecuador here. IF they can continue in the same manner as their first two games. England are defintiely beatable, whether or not Ecuador are the team to do it?????

Worth a shot.

**moses millsap** · 06-24-06, 09:41 PM

mad,

Are you going with the 90 min ML or the "to advance"/pickem bet?

**mad** · 06-24-06, 10:00 PM

Not really sure mate to be honest. I suppose a nice compromise might be a little on each, considering the odds on offer. I'm sitting here typing wanting Ecuador to win ($$$$$$) but can't escape the nagging feeling it won't be that easy. Always the way, Ecuador a goal up with 5 mins to go and you know the English will somehow scramble an equaliser.

**mad** · 06-24-06, 10:13 PM

My last post doesn't really answer your question though does it. After some additional thought, my plan is this:

Take Ecuador to win after 90 mins. If they're good enough to win, they'll win. If it goes to extra time and penalties, well then we're into a coin flip type of situation.

**moses millsap** · 06-24-06, 10:26 PM

Yeah, I'll play it safe and take the +400 price, lol. Let's cash this dog

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 07:19 AM

Since I'm English, I hope you lot lose big style. And if - I mean when - that happens I'll be coming back here to gloat.

**McBa1n** · 06-25-06, 07:30 AM

If you're talking prices, you'd be nuts to take Ecuador to win the match outright with extra time at only +400ish (so many punters bet england, making the dog price juicy, though).
You're WAY better off taking them in regular time.
I don't think Ecuador will win. England has a way of getting garbage goals... But if you're going to make a move - +700 or more in regular time is the way to go. I believe England has too much talent on European soil (a huger factor than the odds have shown) and history has shown that Euro teams DOMINATE teams from other continents historically on Euro soil. If the upset happens, it's going to be in regular time IMO. Upsets favor in regular time - not extra time, as in all sports.

I wish you luck, regardless... That would be a sick payoff.
But not so much, It'd mean I lose:>...
I'm a chalk whore, but that's me in the cup. I've seen too many to know that dogs usually lose. There's maybe 1 or 2 'upsets', but, hopefully, I avoid it today.:>

**Illusion** · 06-25-06, 10:32 AM

I was gonna take a shot, but I missed the start time.

**Terris** · 06-25-06, 12:20 PM

took Netherlands to advance -132 /pinny

**tacomax** · 06-25-06, 12:36 PM

**moses millsap** · 06-25-06, 01:58 PM

Slept through the entire game, but got my bet in last night

**scottyy11** · 06-25-06, 03:31 PM

this is the first game thats been interesting neth/potugal

**Baphomet** · 06-25-06, 07:33 PM

Don't bet the underdogs.
Idon't know why people insisted on betting on Ecuador.
England was obviously making it to the next phase.

Don't bet on Ghana, don't bet on France... Be realistic...

**rolemand** · 06-25-06, 07:43 PM

Slow down there Baphomet. "Obvious?????" If they won by 3 or more I'd agree with you. But they won by 1 on a fabulous shot that by all accounts the goalie should've stopped had he been in a better starting position.

**isetcap** · 06-25-06, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by rolemand

Slow down there Baphomet. "Obvious?????" If they won by 3 or more I'd agree with you. But they won by 1 on a fabulous shot that by all accounts the goalie should've stopped had he been in a better starting position.

Sounds like an overview of just about every soccer match.

**Baphomet** · 06-26-06, 10:12 AM

Rolemand, do you really think Ecuador had any chances against England?
Be honest in your answer, please. I won't laugh, I promise.

**McBa1n** · 06-26-06, 01:22 PM

I'll take my foot and put it into my mouth.
Portugal had a solid 15 minutes and played great team ball... Then the referee got out of control... That was the most gutless soccer game I've ever seen by both teams. There's no excuse for all those reds or cheap hits... Not in the World Cup.

I was wrong on Portugal - very wrong. They did well and picked the right time to play their best.

**Bulldog** · 06-26-06, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by Baphomet

Don't bet the underdogs.
Idon't know why people insisted on betting on Ecuador.
England was obviously making it to the next phase.

Don't bet on Ghana, don't bet on France... Be realistic...

I agree for the most part, I actually made some $ on England but I would put France in the same package as the other underdogs. France could very well beat Spain IMO.

**rolemand** · 06-26-06, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Baphomet

Rolemand, do you really think Ecuador had any chances against England?
Be honest in your answer, please. I won't laugh, I promise.

The question is before or during the match. England hadn't shown any ability to put up a lot of goals during round 1. Therefore, it could easily have been something like Ghana did to the Czech Republic. Let's say they get one fluke goal that might've held up. They played the 1st half to a tie so yeah they had a shot.

**Baphomet** · 06-27-06, 10:25 AM

I said this on June 23rd. BEFORE the game.

http://forum.sportsbookreview.com/showthread.php?t=12621

"Germany v Sweden -> Germany Germany v Arg: Germany
Argentina v Mexico -> Argentina
England v Ecuador -> England Eng v Portugal: Portugal
Portugal v Holland -> Portugal"

I said Portugal was going to beat Holland, and England going to beat Ecuador. So, that answers you the issue about "The question is before or during the match."

This is not a charity tournament, Beckham is Beckham, Ronaldinho is Ronaldinho, Klose is Klose, favorites are favorites.
Football is not about small countries (soccer speaking) winning anything, let's see Costa Rica, USA, Trinidad, Ivory Coast, etc. already gone without any glory.
There's no David vs Goliath.

Ecuador didn't have 1% chance against England.
Managing to end a 1st half tied doesn't mean a team is weak, it's strategy, they may be waiting to the last 15 minutes to charge. That's what England did, actually.
Football is not about a 23-45 score, 1-0 is enough, therefore strategy is more important than just making goals during the first half. Of course we all like 5-0 scores, but 1-0 is enough as said.