Vaughany's Soccer Plays...

[Vaughany]

Small stake on:

Hoffenheim/Leverkusen Over 3 goals @ -111...

[Vaughany]

Small stake on:

Chateauroux win/draw (double chance) @ -131 at home to Caen...

Having a stab at this as Chateauroux is usually a tough place to go to - last season they only lost twice at home, one loss was a tight 3-2 loss to Angers who managed to score two goals in injury time and Angers ended up coming 5th in the league, and then they lost 4-0 to Nantes but Chateauroux only had 10 men for half the game, and Nantes ended up getting promoted to Ligue 1. This season they've had one slip up at home when they were whooped 4-0 by Tours so hopefully that's their one big loss per season at home out of the way!

My other reason for playing it is because Caen have some key players unavailable due to combination of injuries and suspensions. The regular central defensive partnership consisting of Wague (9 apps, 1 goal) & Felipe Saad (9 apps) will be broken up as both are out. In addition to those two, midfielders Rothen (8 apps, 1 goal), Agouazi (10 apps), and strikers Kodjia (10 apps, 2 goals), & Nangis (2 apps) will also be missing. I'm thinking Chateauroux scrape a 1-1 draw which has been the common result when these two have met previously. The last 5 games between these two in Chateauroux have ended a draw, and 4 of them have been 1-1 each time!

[Vaughany]

Small stake parlay:

Parlay (double): Nancy PK (-275 at home to Clermont) & Lens PK (-275 at home to Nimes);

Nancy/Clermont Over 0.75 goals 1st half @ -122...

Nancy have got a new Coach Pablo Correa who was a fan favourite when he used to play for the club as a striker along side Tony Cascarino. He played for 5 years at the club and knows what it's all about and will be serious about getting them back in the promotion hunt after being relegated from Ligue 1 last season and starting this one off badly. In addition to that, Clermont have three of their regular back-four unavailable due to being suspended: Lippini (9 apps), Avinel (7 apps), & Da Silva (7 apps). Midfielder Betsch (9 apps) is also out due to injury, and strikers Videmont (5 apps, 1 goal), and Capelle (2 apps) are injured.

So with the defensive absentees for Clermont, and Nancy having a new Coach who has demanded that his team play with a high-intensity I also like the value for their to be at least 1 goal in the 1st half...

Even if he confesses to have changed, Pablo Correa is a strong supporter of a football commitment. "I come with my energy to try to inject a dose of intensity. I will insist on it, because the team needs to increase the intensity to hurt the opponent. This is what saves a duel and take the ball. This is true in all areas of the game is already seen in practice today. This is normal, because the players want to show.We now see in a long time and also match."

[Vaughany]

Toulouse PK @ +106 away at Reims...

[pao13]

vaughany, i do well in most of the main leagues but because of the break this last week or so i have been playing second division leagues which i dont fallow that much. my record shows this as i was doing well until the break started last week so i need your advise. i was leaning on the caen game btts. what do you think? also btts in dijon game. any thoughts would much be apreciated

[pao13]

i have done poorly this week betting on second division games latly

[edabramov]

i have done poorly this week betting on second division games latly

I did well this week, last week went -10 units, sht happens. You'll recover. Just keep in mind that it's part of the betting, you're SUPPOSED to LOSE and you will win.

[pao13]

yes totaly agree. over all i make money but there are those weeks that anything you touch loses no matter what game it is. my problem is i have to bet on something even though its a league im not to crazy about.

[edabramov]

yes totaly agree. over all i make money but there are those weeks that anything you touch loses no matter what game it is. my problem is i have to bet on something even though its a league im not to crazy about.

Right. And then when you see like 5 losses and 1 win you tell your self how it was stupid of you to bet for the sake of action. I used to have that kind of problem, can't say I do still sometimes, that's how I end up losing.. Just assume that the bets you're making will lose, so next time you'll avoid them. Airbet on some useless game, when you see that it would have lost you'll feel better. PCE TILL 2morrow! BIG day!

[Vaughany]

vaughany, i do well in most of the main leagues but because of the break this last week or so i have been playing second division leagues which i dont fallow that much. my record shows this as i was doing well until the break started last week so i need your advise. i was leaning on the caen game btts. what do you think? also btts in dijon game. any thoughts would much be apreciated

Initially I was going to play the Over 1 1st half in Caen game, and/or the Over 2 for the game as well, however, Caen's absentees has put me off a little as they may play more reserved than usual and offer more cover to the defence due to their usual central pairing of Felipe Saad and Wague being unavailable. On the flipside it could mean that Chateauroux find it easier to score, and Caen do still have Duhamel up front who can score goals so it may still be a 2-1 either way or 2-2 type game like last season. Neither side has been involved in a 0-0 so far so there is a good chance both teams score.

Dijon is a tricky one because Troyes are involved in the highest scoring games on average (3.3 goals per game), while Dijon are the third lowest at 1.8 goals per game and Dijon have been involved in 3 0-0 games. However, at home Dijon rarely fail to score, the last time they didnt was back in February when the eventual Ligue II Champs Monaco beat them 2-0. Troyes have only failed to score in one away game so far which was at Lens which is one of the toughest places to go to in the league.

[Vaughany]

Managed to get Melbourne PK in 10 mins before they scored

Live - Australia A-League, Soccer
	Melbourne Victory 18-October-2013 1:30 AM PST
	Handicap pk for Game -137
	Live! 2-0 Live - Asian Handicap Warning
	Risking 68.50 to Win 50.00 GBP

[pao13]

Thanks for your insight. I think i will stick to taking the btts in both games. GL to you today!

[druss117]

Hey Vaughny . Thinking of putting 2 unites on Leverkusen today . What do you think?

[plekz]

You still loving Roma tonight Vaugh?

[Vaughany]

Thanks for your insight. I think i will stick to taking the btts in both games. GL to you today!

Cheers you too! And BTTS may well turn out to be the sharper move, might regret taking Chateauroux +0.5 instead

[lucasdawg]

ive been looking at both ^ Leverkusen & Roma any suggestions?

[Vaughany]

You still loving Roma tonight Vaugh?

Yeah, but I'm not going as big on it as I initially was as some players like Strootman and Gervinho have come back from international break with knocks, and Pjanic will be tired. I'm intending to add more to Roma PK live-in-play if they are looking sharp and controlling the game

[Vaughany]

Leverkusen have a great history against Hoffenheim, but this Hoffenheim is playing on a different level to the last couple seasons. I dont see Leverkusen losing but wouldnt be surprised if Hoff scrape a 1-1 or 2-2 draw. Lars Bender is out for Leverkusen who is important in their midfield, and Kiessling is only just back from injury and may not be fully fit.

[lucasdawg]

is there any weaknesses from the napoli team?

[Vaughany]

is there any weaknesses from the napoli team?

Zuniga is the only player unavailable for Napoli tonight. This is what I wrote yesterday (could be complete garbage though, but I guess we'll find out tonight!)...

yeah in theory they should be winning this or drawing at worse. I'll be bold and say that Napoli are over-rated currently. The likes of Montella and Fabio Cannavaro have come out saying that they are favourites to win the Scudetto which I think is absolute nonsense! Napoli's defence is very average, they have a host of full-backs who are not defensively sound - Maggio, Armero, Zuniga and Mesto...they are all attack-minded players, especially the first three and leave a lot of space in behind that can be exploited. In the centre they have Raul Albiol, Britos, Fernandez, and P. Cannavaro to choose from, none of whom are world-class players or IMO anywhere near world class. Obviously Reina on his day can be unbeatable, but he can also drop clangers at times.

IMO, people seem to be ignoring the fact that Napoli conceded two sloppy goals at Chievo and it could easily of been 4 or 5 as the home side had multiple chances which they didn't take. It's also been forgotten that Napoli only drew at home against a side in Sassuolo who had previously lost 7-0 at home to Inter, and then after drawing at Napoli went and lost 3-1 at Parma despite having an extra man for half the game! Napoli did beat a very poor Milan side away which on paper is impressive (because at the end of the day it is still AC Milan at the San Siro), but that was only because Balotelli had a slight off-day and missed his first penalty in 23 attempts! Milan had 56% possession, 8 corners to 2, 22 attempts on goal to 9, and Reina had to make 7 saves compared to Abbiati's 1. Then in the CL Arsenal completely outplayed them at Emirates Stadium, and they only scraped a win at home to Dortmund after conceding late despite Dortmund having 10 men for half the game.

Don't get me wrong, there is always going to be the potential there for Napoli to slaughter teams with the depth in quality that they've got going forward. With three decent attacking wing-back options in Zuniga, Armero, and Maggio, then Insigne, Merterns, Callejon, Hamsik, Pandev, and Higuain as attacking alternatives you have to be concerned, especially as Roma are going to have to have an off day eventually. The international break is my biggest concern as it could ruin Roma's momentum, and I think it's been kinder to Napoli as there two key players Higuain and Hamsik didn't go off with their National Team so were able to rest and recuperate. The only Napoli players that did feature in Internationals were their Swiss trio Behrami, Dzemaili, and Gokhan Inler, and then Armero for Colombia. Roma on the other hand had Strootman, Pjanic, and Gervinho all involved - Strootman and Gervinho have come back with slight injuries so may not even start tomorrow and Pjanic played over 150 minutes for Bosnia over 2 important games. So this is a concern and why I'm not betting large on Roma PK, but may add more live-in-play if they are looking like they are in control.

[lucasdawg]

ahhhhhs thanks there vaughany for the quick reply. i do agree with you and think napoli are over rated at the moment. which is why it makes this pick hard as it seems too obvious, i think the week prior i had as roma away as dogs over inter, i was pre suprised. ive decided to go with the two teams Leverkusen & Roma in a parlay. BOL to your plays much thanks again.

[Vaughany]

yee the "too obvious" feeling is what is preventing me from going bigger on it! Whenever I feel confident like this it usually goes completely wrong (like JOng Ajax at start of week!). Somebody like De Rossi will probably go and get red carded for an elbow or something stupid!

[Vaughany]

[ctny85]

Vaughany off topic but thoughts on anderlecht -1 at -120 and over 3 at -105? Surprised you don't like leverkusen more despite the injury to key midfielder and hoffenheim form considering they are playing for first. Thanks.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany off topic but thoughts on anderlecht -1 at -120 and over 3 at -105? Surprised you don't like leverkusen more despite the injury to key midfielder and hoffenheim form considering they are playing for first. Thanks.

Bundesliga is random and Hoffenheim have screwed me a couple of times. I may play Leverkusen live if they are dominating possession.

Anderlecht should win comfortably in theory but I've not looked in to it at all

[ctny85]

Yeah I guess the over may be best bet in leverkusen hoffenheim I just don't like needing 4 goals to cash

[Vaughany]

lol Paderborn game has had 4 goals in space of 3 minutes! 4-2 now!

[Vaughany]

Late decision by Rafa to not start Higuain. Pandev who knows all about Roma after his Lazio days will be starting instead

[druss117]

Leverkusen have a great history against Hoffenheim, but this Hoffenheim is playing on a different level to the last couple seasons. I dont see Leverkusen losing but wouldnt be surprised if Hoff scrape a 1-1 or 2-2 draw. Lars Bender is out for Leverkusen who is important in their midfield, and Kiessling is only just back from injury and may not be fully fit.

Thanks Vaughany I was gonna take them -0.5 AH but will do a DNB instead !!

[Vaughany]

Thanks Vaughany I was gonna take them -0.5 AH but will do a DNB instead !!

Go with ur instinct!

[Vaughany]

Caen dominating, chat play not looking good

[Vaughany]

Looks like a night for away teams! 5 away 1-0s

[Vaughany]

Nancy equalise. 1st half over hits

[Vaughany]

Need a goal before 25min mark in Hofenhein game

[DA_MOSS]

Got one in the 26th min!