DH, in case you have some betting interest in Turkey - Czech R. game, just FYI there is no overtime in this game in case of a draw. Game goes directly to penalties, which will be a precedent for breaking tied teams in Euro or WC finals group stage.
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Thanks for the explanation. I didn't realize that. I would have loved this game to go to pk's. With a Turkish field player in goal, after the real goalie get a red card and they had already used their subs.
Incredible mistake by Cech to let Turkey back in.
And the Czech coaching was questionable. They had complete control of the game until they took the lead and dropped back. The 2-0 gave them the cushion to go back on offense and dominate the game once more. But they changed back again to -horrible- defense after Turkey made it 2-1.
The disastrous Czech coaching was the exact opposite of Van Basten for Holland, who put in two offensive players when the Dutch were up 1-0 and the French were pressing. The French coach responded by playing one-on-one in the back, preferring the majority on midfield to push the Dutch far back, but leaving his team extremely vulnerable to devastating counter attacks. That was no limit poker, and Van Basten always had the better hand.
Turkey deserves the credit for never giving up. But clearly, at this level of play, it is unacceptable to give up a 2-0 lead with 15 (!) minutes left to play.Last edited by Dark Horse; 06-16-08, 03:41 AM.Comment -
Three rounds completed. Time to update how pretournament power rankings are doing:
Round 3
Switzerland - Portugal 2-0
Turkey - Czech Rep 3-2
Croatia - Poland 1-0 <=
Germany - Austria 1-0 <=
Holland - Romania 2-0 <=
Italy - France 2-0 <=
Spain - Greece 2-1 <=
Russia - Sweden 2-0 <=
Round 2
Portugal - Czech Rep 3-1 <=
Switzerland - Turkey 1-2
Germany - Croatia 1-2
Poland - Austria 1-1
Italy - Romania 1-1
Holland - France 4-1 <=
Spain - Sweden 2-1 <=
Russia - Greece 1-0 <=
Round 1
Czech Rep - Switzerland 1-0 <=
Portugal - Turkey 2-0 <=
Croatia - Austria 1-0 <=
Germany - Poland 2-0 <=
France - Romania 0-0
Holland - Italy 3-0 <=
Spain - Russia 4-1 <=
Sweden - Greece 2-0 <=
7 out of 8 in round 1
4 out of 8 in round 2
6 out of 8 in round 3
Total 17 out of 24 (70.8%)
Three-way results, so winning odds are much > +100.
Group stages best for bets. Seven games remaining as we go to knock out stages.
Quarter finals:
Portugal - Germany
Croatia - Turkey
Holland - Russia
Spain - ItalyLast edited by Dark Horse; 06-18-08, 03:39 PM.Comment -
Very strong... That's a nice winning clip if you bet accordingly.Comment -
Thanks. Updated the record.Comment -
portugal wins tmrwComment -
Germany and Portugal, in the last 15 meetings Germany has 7 wins compared to Portugals 3 wins. Just a thought.
Looks like we add another win to Germany's column against Portugal. Yeah what a game I thought Portugal was going to come back at the end. Great Game.Comment -
Portugal forgot to defend and handed the Germans the 3-2 victory. The decisive goal was an obvious foul, but this ref is one of those extremists who think that swallowing the whistle is a testimony to his excellence.
I think it's a pretty safe bet that Croatia will beat Turkey. It's already a small miracle that Turkey made it this far, coming back from down 0-2 against Czech Republic with fifteen minutes left. They're resilient -kudos for that-, but they'll be missing too many of their starters tomorrow.Comment -
i like croats too
what line do you have? -120?Comment -
Huh. Hadn't seen the line yet. May pass or play it live. I pretty much refuse to pay anything worse than +100 for soccer with three-way results.Comment -
Knockout stage is a totally different animal than the group stage. So far the three teams with a higher degree of resilience (see sig) have made it through to the next round. Will update pretournament rankings results after final game.
Portugal- Germany 2-3
Croatia - Turkey 0-0 (1-1 OT; Turkey through on pk's)
Holland - Russia 1-1 (1-3 OT)
Spain - Italy tomorrowLast edited by Dark Horse; 06-21-08, 08:18 PM.Comment -
Because three-way results pay much better, and because I hit 70% of those in group phase?
Knockout phase has different rules than group phase. More interesting for fans, but not for gamblers. I'm done with the tournament; 24 matches in group phase, and just 7 after that.Last edited by Dark Horse; 06-22-08, 01:32 PM.Comment -
Spain-Russia
Knock out stages are usually first about not losing. The exception -so far this tournament- was today, where Turkey took the game to the Germans early. To me that was largely dictated by all the backups in the Turkish team. It was all or nothing right from the start for Turkey. Not so for squads that are evenly matched, like Spain and Russia.
Both Spain and Russia can be very patient, and can afford to be. They've already shown that in their first knockout game: 0-0 against Italy, and 1-1 against Holland. Remember that the last game was expected to be a shootout by many experts. But Russia, with a Dutch coach, performed a little trick straight from the Dutch school: early 'small' fouling when the ball is lost on offense. This looks innocent enough, but it takes all the sting out of the quick counter attack. If Russia does this against Spain much of the match will be fought in midfield. And the Russian midfield, with Arshavin, is second to none. This also means that Spain will have to methodically build up its attacks; something the Dutch, the tournament favorites before playing Russia, did not succeed in. If the creative and deadly Dutch offense couldn't get it done against Russia, the Spanish attack may be in for a rough ride as well.
Russia is at least as good as Spain (right there is most of the value for this game, with Spain being the clear public favorite), but let's break it down into a few basic questions. What is the most dangerous weapon in the game, on either side? In my opinion the Russian counter attack. Who is the most unpredictable player on the field, in a positive sense? Arshavin, the rising superstar that emerged in this tournament. He was suspended for the first game between these teams, and should be able to lead his team to victory. Who has the better coach? Russia again.
Spain does have the better striker in Villa, but he's already had a great game against Russia. They'll be very prepared for him this time. Extremely difficult in international soccer to have two great goal scoring performances in a row against the same opponent.
Stamina is very much on the side of Russia as well. They've followed a little-know, but highly effective training method to quickly raise their stamina levels (in just a matter of weeks). This is crucial if the game should reach overtime. For a dramatic illustration watch the overtime between Holland and Russia again, with one team exhausted and the other still going 100 miles per hour.
Last but not least, which team has the higher resilience rating? Russia, having come back strong after an early loss. Spain has not yet dealt with adversity. This is a major disadvantage in a tournament as this. Russia is more battle-tested.
I like Russia to reach the final. (for the record, that would give us the same final as in 1972, when West-Germany beat the Soviet Union, back in the days when this Euro tournament had a whopping four teams.)Last edited by Dark Horse; 06-26-08, 01:01 AM.Comment -
Updated results for pre-tournament power rankings
Round 3
Switzerland - Portugal 2-0
Turkey - Czech Rep 3-2
Croatia - Poland 1-0 <=
Germany - Austria 1-0 <=
Holland - Romania 2-0 <=
Italy - France 2-0 <=
Spain - Greece 2-1 <=
Russia - Sweden 2-0 <=
Round 2
Portugal - Czech Rep 3-1 <=
Switzerland - Turkey 1-2
Germany - Croatia 1-2
Poland - Austria 1-1
Italy - Romania 1-1
Holland - France 4-1 <=
Spain - Sweden 2-1 <=
Russia - Greece 1-0 <=
Round 1
Czech Rep - Switzerland 1-0 <=
Portugal - Turkey 2-0 <=
Croatia - Austria 1-0 <=
Germany - Poland 2-0 <=
France - Romania 0-0
Holland - Italy 3-0 <=
Spain - Russia 4-1 <=
Sweden - Greece 2-0 <=
Group stages best for bets. Seven games remaining as we go to knock out stages.
Quarter-finals (90 minute results):
Portugal - Germany 2-3
Croatia - Turkey 0-0 (1-1)
Holland - Russia 1-1 (1-3)
Spain - Italy 0-0
Semi-finals (90 minute results):
Germany-Turkey 3-2 <=
Spain -Russia 3-0 <=
7 out of 8 in round 1
4 out of 8 in round 2
6 out of 8 in round 3
Total 17 out of 24 (70.8%)
Knock out stages:
2 out of 6 with 1 game to go.
Total 19 of 30 (63.3%)
Clearly the knock out stages, where teams play not to lose (before trying to win), are not as good for betting as group stages, where teams are much more motivated to go for the win.
Three-way results, so most winning odds are much > +100.
I'm not playing the knockout stages, but did put some on Russia in the semi-final. My analysis of the game was real good. Only one problem: Russia forgot to show up. So much for capping a soccer game. Better to keep it simple with power rankings.
Final:
Spain-GermanyLast edited by Dark Horse; 06-27-08, 03:21 AM.Comment -
Hey DH, I think you made a typo error for the Portugal-Germany score. The full time score was Germany 3-2 (not 2-0).
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Thanks. Corrected it.Comment -
Euro 2008: Germany, Spain set for finals
Spain will be looking to end a 44-year drought and stand as European Champions without their leading scorer David Villa against Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and a tough German team.
You could almost see Germany vs. Spain coming from a mile away.
Sunday’s Euro 2008 championship game features the most successful team in tournament history – that would be Germany with three titles – against arguably the best team in the world today. Heading into the Group Stage, Germany was the 7-2 favorite; Spain was the No. 2 choice at 4-1. But then a funny thing happened: Germany played uncharacteristically pedestrian soccer, losing to Croatia in Group B and squeaking past Turkey in the semifinals.
While German fans are knitting their brows in consternation, Spain is ready to party. The Red Fury have yet to lose a game in this tournament, getting the maximum nine points in Group D and outplaying Italy before winning on penalties in the quarterfinals. That marked the first time since 1920 that Spain has defeated Italy, and it marked the arrival of a team that has chronically underachieved in years past. The Spaniards are now on a 21-match unbeaten streak that stretches back to Oct. 2006.
The difference in quality between the two clubs was enough to make Spain the –170 favorite on the Euro 2008 betting odds. Germany was +135 at press time to lift the beautiful Henri Delaunay Trophy. For those who prefer the win-lose-draw format, the odds look like this:
Spain +130
Germany +200
Draw +220
Those odds only cover the regulation 90 minutes plus added time, aka injury time. The total for Sunday’s game is two goals, with the over priced at –155. That’s a value pick in my books. Spain has scored at least two goals in every single game except the Italian snoozefest, while Germany dumped three goals apiece on Portugal and Turkey to reach the final despite poor marking on defense.
Spain will be missing some of its firepower, though. David Villa, the leading candidate for the Golden Boot with four goals, is confirmed out of Sunday’s final with a thigh/hamstring injury. But there is no sense of Iberian panic; Cesc Fabregas has been sensational coming off the bench and is likely to start Sunday, anchoring a 4-5-1 formation with fellow midfielders Xavi, Andres Iniesta, Marcos Senna and the pesky David Silva.
The confidence exuded by La Roja supporters is the polar opposite of the angst on the German side. Ironically, the Mannschaft look a lot less like the efficient machines of old and closer to their opponents on Sunday. Manager Joachim Low has his team playing with verve and flair – otherwise, they’d have been knocked out by now with the questionable goalkeeping of 38-year-old Jens Lehmann, recently given the heave-ho by Arsenal and due to play in Stuttgart next season. Lehmann is getting no favors from defenders Christoph Metzelder and Per Mertesacker, either. These three are the Achilles’ heel of the German squad and the key to Spain’s championship hopes.
Still, we’ve seen this movie before. Germany remains the bigger of the two teams, and Low can be expected to match Spain’s 4-5-1 attack with a stout midfield including captain Michael Ballack, the unshakeable Bastian Schweinsteiger, and Torsten Frings, who returned to action against Turkey after missing the Portugal match with a rib injury. Germany’s size and strength advantage gives the team value at +200; however, the Catalans have been superior at maintaining ball possession with their unerring passes and footwork. The championship is theirs for the taking.
ABC is showing the Euro 2008 final starting at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time, preceded by an MLS showdown at high noon featuring David Beckham’s L.A. Galaxy versus Luciano Emilio and D.C. United.Comment -
Final: Spain - Germany
Numbers 2 and 3 in pre-tournament rankings, with the nod going to Spain.
Half of the knockout games have ended in ties, versus only 3 ties in 24 group stage games (!), so for the knockout rounds -when not losing is priority number one- asian handicap is the way to go.Comment -
Final results for pre-tournament power rankings:
Round 1
Czech Rep - Switzerland 1-0 <=
Portugal - Turkey 2-0 <=
Croatia - Austria 1-0 <=
Germany - Poland 2-0 <=
France - Romania 0-0
Holland - Italy 3-0 <=
Spain - Russia 4-1 <=
Sweden - Greece 2-0 <=
Round 2
Portugal - Czech Rep 3-1 <=
Switzerland - Turkey 1-2
Germany - Croatia 1-2
Poland - Austria 1-1
Italy - Romania 1-1
Holland - France 4-1 <=
Spain - Sweden 2-1 <=
Russia - Greece 1-0 <=
Round 3
Switzerland - Portugal 2-0
Turkey - Czech Rep 3-2
Croatia - Poland 1-0 <=
Germany - Austria 1-0 <=
Holland - Romania 2-0 <=
Italy - France 2-0 <=
Spain - Greece 2-1 <=
Russia - Sweden 2-0 <=
Quarter-finals (90 minute results):
Portugal - Germany 2-3
Croatia - Turkey 0-0 (1-1)
Holland - Russia 1-1 (1-3)
Spain - Italy 0-0
Semi-finals (90 minute results):
Germany-Turkey 3-2 <=
Spain -Russia 3-0 <=
Final
Spain-Germany 1-0 <=
7 out of 8 in round 1
4 out of 8 in round 2
6 out of 8 in round 3
Total 17 out of 24 (70.8%)
Knock out stages:
3 out of 7
Total for Euro 2008: 20 out of 31 (64.5%)
Three-way results, so most winning odds are much > +100.
Viva Espana!
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pretty late on it ... but neverthelessComment
