1. Bournemouth/West Ham OVER 2.5 @ 1.87/-115 (1u) Bet365 Out of the last 5 head to head meetings 4 have gone over the total. Last season Bournemouth games averaged 2.84 goals per game and west Ham 2.55. Add to that the new added time rules gives this total value. 2. Crystal Palace PK @ 1.70/-143 (1u) Pinnacle I typically do not like paying this much juice but I really wanted to cover myself in case of a draw. This is a fade of Sheffield United who I have power ranked last in the EPL. They have a worse squad then last season in the Championship and are my pick to be relegated this season. 3. Aston Villa +0.5 @ 2.21/+121 (1u) Pinnacle These sides have just met in the summer series with the outcome being a 3-3 draw. I see Newcastle taking a step back this season. Even with their unlimited bank roll they have not spent much and failed to sign anyone of significance this offseason.
Once again just like last week I'm fading the blades who I consider the poorest side in the premiership. Forest lost a close one 2-1 to Arsenal in London to start the season but this is a sneaky good squad especially at home where they beat the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool & Spurs last season.
Wolves were robbed at Man United last week with that uncalled penalty. They looked good in the whole match. They have a great young manager (O'Neil) that Bournemouth should have kept. They are in good home form being unbeaten in past 7 games. I think they can nick a point or more in their home opener.
6. Manchester City ML @ 1.74/-135 (1u) Marathon 7. Manchester City/Newcastle OVER 2.5 @ 1.75/-133 (1u) Pinnacle
Here we have an overreaction in price as the public suffers from recency bias with that big Newcastle win & City having to go the distance in the Super Cup. Last season City hosted Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and Real Madrid all 3 had shorter odds then Newcastle. Is Newcastle as good as the best teams in Europe? NO... the odds opened at 1.42/-244 area and that is a fair price. Numbers wise City's games averaged 3.34 goals per game & Newcastle 2.66.Four of the past 5 head to head games went over 2.5 goals. The goal line should be set at 3 here, so a tad of value there as well.
I expect Chelsea to be much better this year after last year debacle. West ham on the other hand were almost relegated and their season was saved by that Conference League title. They lost their best player and I expect them to be in a relegation battle this season as well.
12. West Ham/Luton OVER 2.5 @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Pinnacle
West Ham have has 11 of their past 12 games go over 2.5 goals. The last 5 games for Luton also went over te total. West ham games see goals they were only one of 3 teams not to have a 0-0 score line last season. The other 2 being City & Spurs. Luton plays mid week at home and their back line bled 2 goals to Gillingham. This looks like a 2-1 3-1 final for the visitors.
13. Brentford/Bournemouth UNDER 2.5 @ 2.18/+118 (1u) Unibet
I think the public has gone a bit overboard with the added time angle that now there appears value on some unders. 4 of the past 5 head to head games here have gone under 2.5 goals including both games last season. Form wise 3 of the past 5 games for both sides have also ended under 2.5 goals.
15. Aston Villa ML @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle 16. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Bet365 17. Fulham ML @ 1.72/-139 (1u) Pinnacle 18. Fulham OVER 2.5 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Bet365 19. Manchester United PK @ 1.72/-139 (1u) Pinnacle 20. Manchester City -1 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Marathon 21. Brentford +1 @ 2.04/+104 (1u) Unibet
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