Smogs Villareal/Zaroagoza Total pick

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  • Smogs
    SBR MVP
    • 12-31-08
    • 4173

    #1
    Smogs Villareal/Zaroagoza Total pick
    I'm on the over here and i got 4/5 with Bet365 earlier in the week and i think it is now 8/11 at most places.
    That doesn't make this a lock or anything, but i feel there is enough value in the play and think that it will end 3-1 Villareal.

    Zaragoza have been covering machines on the road in terms of over 2.5 goals, they have cashed that ticket 7/9 times and this is down to how poor their defense is. They have let 37 in overall, and 29 of those on the road. 22 in the last 6 road games compounds this and they are coming up against a Villareal side who are at last showing some form. 3 wins in the last 6 and 10 goals gives me confidence in the bet.

    At home the Yellow Submarine have scored 17 in 9, not bad considering, and with their impressive home win record, i think a blowout is the most likely outcome.

    Form at home gets even better, 16 goals in their last 6 at home and a 5-1-0 record.

    I think that momentum will be strongly in Villareal's favour as they try to bounce back from the 4-1 drubbing last week.


    This is my first 2 unit pick of the season, and of my spreadsheet and i am confident that it will cash - but it is a public play, and we know how those go
  • Wilforth
    Restricted User
    • 05-10-08
    • 16309

    #2
    Comment
    • lauritz
      SBR Rookie
      • 01-14-10
      • 36

      #3
      Looks like a play

      I like that both teams seems to be able to concede some goals in overplays, and that applies here
      BTW, what do you think of over 2,5 in Tenerife - Valencia? After what I've seen from Valencia, they are able to concede out of nothing, and with Silva and Villa you are almost guaranteed some goals...
      Comment
      • svenodds
        SBR MVP
        • 09-12-09
        • 1790

        #4
        looks good
        Comment
        • Smogs
          SBR MVP
          • 12-31-08
          • 4173

          #5
          Originally posted by lauritz
          Looks like a play

          I like that both teams seems to be able to concede some goals in overplays, and that applies here
          BTW, what do you think of over 2,5 in Tenerife - Valencia? After what I've seen from Valencia, they are able to concede out of nothing, and with Silva and Villa you are almost guaranteed some goals...
          That also looks good dude, i don't want to give the books the chance to make all their money back from me though lol so i will stick to just this bet. But that does also look good. I think the Valencia win is a good bet - bad odds though
          Comment
          • Smogs
            SBR MVP
            • 12-31-08
            • 4173

            #6
            Weird line movement, Villa are now 4/7 yet the o/u has dropped massively in favour of the over

            Please be a 2-2 draw
            Comment
            • tonyno
              SBR High Roller
              • 01-18-10
              • 198

              #7
              Here are my picks for Sunday:
              -Tenerife vs Valencia (Valencia to win)
              -Villarreal vs Zaragoza (Villarreal to win)
              -Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen (Leverkusen to win)
              -Lazio vs Chievo (Chievo +0.5)
              -Real M. vs Malaga Over 2.5 goals
              -St.Johnstone vs Celtic Over 2.5 goals
              Comment
              • Busterflywheel
                SBR MVP
                • 12-13-09
                • 3991

                #8
                BOL Today SMog
                Comment
                • dengesiz
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 05-22-09
                  • 28

                  #9
                  25 mins 3-0 over WON , good job congrats.
                  Comment
                  • Smogs
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-31-08
                    • 4173

                    #10
                    YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                    Biggest bet of the year so far and it takes 25 minutes - i hope people trailed this
                    Comment
                    • tonyno
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 198

                      #11
                      Wowww, Congrats. It happened so fast.
                      Comment
                      • svenodds
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-12-09
                        • 1790

                        #12
                        yes love the fast ones
                        Comment
                        • mihaita666
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-13-09
                          • 8596

                          #13
                          i picked villareal ML 2 days ago, odds were 1.500, I went hard on it because the odds have dropped seriously ever since
                          Soccer record (2010) : 244-160-24
                          2010-2011 season (soccer) :
                          144-95-11
                          NBA Record (2010-2011 season) :
                          17-12-1


                          Comment
                          • mihaita666
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-13-09
                            • 8596

                            #14
                            the only match that concerns me so far is valencia @ tenrife.
                            i took the over and valencia ml, and close to ht, its 0-0
                            Soccer record (2010) : 244-160-24
                            2010-2011 season (soccer) :
                            144-95-11
                            NBA Record (2010-2011 season) :
                            17-12-1


                            Comment
                            • demize21
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-03-08
                              • 3541

                              #15
                              play 2H over 1.5 even money and Valencia
                              110 to win 2H
                              Comment
                              • mihaita666
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-13-09
                                • 8596

                                #16
                                they dont have live betting)
                                i'll soon deposit some cash to bet365 or some other european bookie with good live betting
                                Soccer record (2010) : 244-160-24
                                2010-2011 season (soccer) :
                                144-95-11
                                NBA Record (2010-2011 season) :
                                17-12-1


                                Comment
                                • Jimmy0607
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-09-09
                                  • 7785

                                  #17
                                  Too easy
                                  Comment
                                  • demize21
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-03-08
                                    • 3541

                                    #18
                                    im doing same with heffenhiem as i feel they draw or better just playing hoff to win 1u if score stays same +240 2H
                                    Comment
                                    • tonyno
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 198

                                      #19
                                      What are you guys thinking about the AC vs Inter game? I am thinking over 2.5
                                      Comment
                                      • Richard.Knox
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 01-19-10
                                        • 30

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Smogs
                                        YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Biggest bet of the year so far and it takes 25 minutes - i hope people trailed this
                                        nice one
                                        Comment
                                        • theplagy
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-21-09
                                          • 1915

                                          #21

                                          i need to pick up my games here lol
                                          Comment
                                          • tonyno
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 01-18-10
                                            • 198

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by tonyno
                                            Here are my picks for Sunday:
                                            -Tenerife vs Valencia (Valencia to win) LOSS
                                            -Villarreal vs Zaragoza (Villarreal to win) WIN
                                            -Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen (Leverkusen to win) WIN
                                            -Lazio vs Chievo (Chievo +0.5) WIN
                                            -Real M. vs Malaga Over 2.5 goals LOSS
                                            -St.Johnstone vs Celtic Over 2.5 goals WIN
                                            4-2 for today
                                            Comment
                                            • Smogs
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-31-08
                                              • 4173

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by tonyno
                                              WIN

                                              4-1 so far....
                                              Dude, get some write ups going, then we can appreciate your thought more, you obviously win a lot, so write them up and i would happily tail - good job
                                              Comment
                                              • Half_Glassed
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 161

                                                #24
                                                Good bet mate! Well done
                                                Comment
                                                • tonyno
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 198

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Smogs
                                                  Dude, get some write ups going, then we can appreciate your thought more, you obviously win a lot, so write them up and i would happily tail - good job

                                                  Hey Smogs
                                                  Sorry I don't do writeups, I just pick games based on line movement and some hunches. I thought I would share my picks, but it is your thread and I respect your process of thinking.
                                                  Comment
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