Value of half goals on the line

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  • yisman
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-01-08
    • 75682

    #1
    Value of half goals on the line
    For example, would you rather have -.5 (+125) or PK (-165)?
    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
    [/quote]

    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
  • TWEETS
    SBR MVP
    • 10-22-08
    • 2114

    #2
    Depends on the game for me. Usually if its a coinflip game that I have a gut feel on I'll take the Pick. If i really liked the game I'll gladly take the + odds.
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    • mariomonte
      SBR Hustler
      • 06-27-09
      • 98

      #3
      Originally posted by yisman
      For example, would you rather have -.5 (+125) or PK (-165)?
      Rather "trivial" math: it just depends on your estimates for the 1x2 probabilities
      Slightly more helpful: assuming an "Asian" take of ~2.5% and therefore an implied win probability of 43.5%, the -.5(+125) bet is superior EV if the draw is less likely than 28.5% - which refers to a draw odd of +245.
      If you are offered a lower draw odd, take the PK(-165) - unless you know better.
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