Smogs Bounceback Football Thread - The Value Thread

**Smogs** · 11-13-09, 01:27 PM

Now before i post my picks, there are 2 big favourites - but......i honestly believe and you may too, after my write ups that there is big value in the plays and the AH options are to make them over +100

Colchester v Exeter
Colchester -1 @ +100
The stats for this game stack up in favour of Colchester here. My only worry is that everyone that is anyone will be on Colchester this weekend. Certainly on OLBG it would be a shock to see a blog on Exeter. At home, Colchester have 6 wins and a loss to Leeds. In fact, they have only lost 3 times all season, the other two coming against MK Dons and Millwall. 3 teams all pushing for promotion. Against teams down the league Colchester have done brilliantly - only dropping points to bad teams on two occasions - both away against Tranmere and Wycombe. At home they have been faultless and with Lisbie and Odejayi looking very good it stacks up in favour of the U\'s. Exeter for their part are staying solid this season. Not spectacular but shows they are not a walkover. With 8 points from their last 6 their form is steady but when looking at their away form and performances against better opposition, it shows where they struggle. Against teams i consider to be the better in the league, the record stands at 0-1-4 gf 4, ga 11. Based on this and no real injury issues for either side, i believe the odds represent value and will have a go

Darlington v Burton Albion
Burton Albion -0.25 @ +110
At first i would have left this game well alone. However, i have done the capping and see nothing other than a 1-0/2-0 away win. Any way this matchup is looked at it points to Darlo struggling. They have one win and 5 points this season. A grand total of 7 goals just highlights how they have failed to compete in most matches, and when they concede 26 at the other end, it gives Burton a great chance to look up at the table, as oppose to over their shoulder. Injury wise Burton have some issues but some key Darlo players are missing, Lee Thorpe amongst them. I am not saying they would have made a difference but without a target man such as Thorpe, darlo will not really have an outlet to hold up the ball or the experience that he or Noel Whelan would bring in to the side. Burton\'s away form is solid considering the jump in quality from last year and their last 6 form has been better, 11 points if we take away the 5 goals conceded at in-form Chesterfield, they have conceded just 2 goals in the 5 other games in the form table. I feel Darlo have very little chance in getting anything other than a 0-0 draw, so therefore the value is very much in favour of the away side

Northampton v Grimsby
Northampton -1 @ +112
Before i start this blog i must - it is only right - divert your attention to this post by a grimsby fan. http://www.thefishy.co.uk/cgi-bin/fo...?m-1257631840/ I have not laughed that hard since watching a Chubby Brown gig, and it goes to show the state Grimsby are in at the moment. They languish 23rd in the league and have 1 point from the last 6, and that came in the last minute. Away from home they have 2 wins and 5 losses, god knows how they have won 2 games away - or at all for that matter. Those came against Bury and Torquay and both came with clean sheets in fact. I do think though, with the current form of the Cobblers - 3-2-1 scoring 12 conceding 8. They have started to turn around from the poor form that saw them slip into the lower reaches of the league and now with a win tomorrow can look towards the top half. Dean beckwith misses out, and he will be missed but with Steve guinan always capable of goals and Akinfenwa also, i like the look of the home side and think the price is fair

All plays for 2 Units - thoughts most appreciated, i haven't placed the wagers and will not do till Saturday lunchtime

**demize21** · 11-13-09, 05:14 PM

we all go through our ruts i still think your one of the best England capers around bud BOL ill be tailing the comeback i had a horrible last 2 weeks just up until a few days ago so took some risks and doubled my net profit

**Smogs** · 11-13-09, 06:56 PM

Hey demize, thanks a lot, really appreciate that

**demize21** · 11-13-09, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Hey demize, thanks a lot, really appreciate that

lets get em this weekend

**TurkzZ** · 11-13-09, 09:15 PM

BOL bro, dont worry about what happend before, add it to experince and thats priceless

, and like Demize said we all go through a terrible patch, i was all over the place around a month back almost hit the pit lol, write your self a set of rules, print and stick on your wall and at all times remember Discipline is key, BOL with the plays Smogsy

**RoagBettor** · 11-13-09, 11:15 PM

**Karayilan9** · 11-14-09, 12:51 AM

Good to see you back, BOL bro

P.s what Turkzz wrote really helps, sounds crazy but seriously have a set of rules and code of conduct, we all gone off the wall at some stage, if you have discipline and a set of clear rules what to do to avert a crisis it can work wonders.

**Smogs** · 11-14-09, 08:04 AM

Cheers for the words guys, really appreciate it.

I have anothe rpick for today that i honestly believe has good value to it and hopefully the write up portrays that

Darlington v Burton Albion : Draw - Burton Albion Win @ 5.50
League Two
Burton have a great chance to win this match and i think this bet also offers a great chance to get a high odds win.
Darlo have scored just the one first half goal all season, conceding 14 whereas Burton have a solid 6-4-5 ht record. Darlo stands at 0-5-10 with a -13 gd.
At home though they are slightly more solid, drawing 4 and losing 3 at half time. Burton are once again spread with a 2-2-3 ht away record but with only 3 goals scored to Darlo's 0. I think therefore the ht draw offers a great bet also and the fulltime burton win to make this 9/2 shot have a very reasonable chance of hitting. I think this is a value bet and despite its apparent risk, it has a better chance than the 9/2 suggests,
I'll certainly have a dabble on it for 1 Unit @ 9/2

**Wilforth** · 11-14-09, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Darlington v Burton Albion
Burton Albion -0.25 @ +110
At first i would have left this game well alone. However, i have done the capping and see nothing other than a 1-0/2-0 away win. Any way this matchup is looked at it points to Darlo struggling. They have one win and 5 points this season. A grand total of 7 goals just highlights how they have failed to compete in most matches, and when they concede 26 at the other end, it gives Burton a great chance to look up at the table, as oppose to over their shoulder. Injury wise Burton have some issues but some key Darlo players are missing, Lee Thorpe amongst them. I am not saying they would have made a difference but without a target man such as Thorpe, darlo will not really have an outlet to hold up the ball or the experience that he or Noel Whelan would bring in to the side. Burton\'s away form is solid considering the jump in quality from last year and their last 6 form has been better, 11 points if we take away the 5 goals conceded at in-form Chesterfield, they have conceded just 2 goals in the 5 other games in the form table. I feel Darlo have very little chance in getting anything other than a 0-0 draw, so therefore the value is very much in favour of the away side

I like Burton Albion in that spot and:

Colchester/Exeter OVER 2.5 (-125).

Northampton, as good as it appears on paper, would be a pass for me.

**mew6789** · 11-14-09, 08:59 AM

What do you guys think about Accrington Stanley Over 2.5 goals?

**Smogs** · 11-14-09, 09:25 AM

Dag n red dnb i would say, but i like the draw in that match

Wil - i also like the over in that match (col/exe)

**Smogs** · 11-14-09, 11:24 AM

Erm.......wtf has happened today

At a complete loss - the first time this season that Darlo have scored in the first half of a game, the first time Darlo will keep a clean sheet, OMFG.
Colchester had a loss at home to Leeds, and now they lose to Exeter, who lose to teams worse than them
Northampton drawing to a team that lost to Bath city, i play University quality soccer at the same level as Bath City!!!

**Smogs** · 11-14-09, 11:26 AM

November 14th results

0-3, -6 units 0%

**mew6789** · 11-17-09, 01:00 AM

What do you think about the FA cup today? I'm thinking of Mansfield on the AH and over 2.5 goals. Also Leyton Orient on the ML.