One soccer pick - Tuesday

[Wilforth]

Chelsea -125

After an embarrassing loss to Aston Villa, Chelsea are now 4-0-0 in their L4, scoring a mouthwatering 17 goals while conceding a grand total of ZERO goals. In fact, Chelsea haven't scored less than 4 goals in any of their L4. Wao! They're on a visit to Atletico Madrid which are 1-1-2 in their L4, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their only win in their L4 came against a non-league side in one of those inconsequential league cup games. The only reason we're getting this generous price on Chelsea is because of the venue of the game. Chelsea is considered the road team. That's all. But as of now, it doesn't matter where this game is played. One team has its eyes set on winning the CL, the other will be happy to exit in this round of the CL. Let's back the team that'll go far in this competition.

Some may be afraid of backing Chelsea here fearing they may be looking ahead to this weekend's clash against Man Utd. But Chelsea's coach has made it clear that they intend to secure qualification to the next round of the CL as quickly as possible. Thus, they'll be going to Atletico Madrid with only one thing in mind - win.

1-0 +1.88 since Nov 1 2009.

[BL]

I love it! tailing

Chelsea -120 @bet365

[Wilforth]

BL

I also like:

AC Milan/Real Madrid UNDER 2.5 (+120)

Some may ask how will that happen? Don't expect another goal fest between these 2 sides. The L2 meetings between these sides in Milan both went Under and I like that trend to continue. Milan struggle offensively at home and their defense is better at home than on the road.

[BL]

Well at least I won't bet the over. There's only one scenario I can see this one going over:
Ronaldinho, Pato and Inzaghi are always good for a goal. If they score the first goal it will easily go over as it
could come to be like the last match.
I don't know if I can really put money on the under here. Doesn't look Real to win at +175 better?
I do not see a draw here and Real the lines tell me Real should be the right pick. Not sure about this game yet. Maybe I'll pass

[shantystar]

love this pick.

[CollegePro]

chelsea line look very fishy to me.... chelsea beat atletico madrid 4-0 on 10/21 and yet line is currently @ -115 at thegreek. and like you mentioned, chelsea has been red hot team lately and even though they are away team, line should be more like at least -150ish. I am not touching this game... GL though.

[Smogs]

chelsea line look very fishy to me.... chelsea beat atletico madrid 4-0 on 10/21 and yet line is currently @ -115 at thegreek. and like you mentioned, chelsea has been red hot team lately and even though they are away team, line should be more like at least -150ish. I am not touching this game... GL though.

I wouldn't call it fishy, i think ATL are about the same as spurs, and if chelsea went to spurs the line would be 10/11 or evens. Bookies know the money will be on chelsea and i think that is where the line comes from.

I think Chelsea will not lose, but it may be a tight game, but for you chelsea backers i hope it wins very convincingly

[CollegePro]

"bookies knows the money will be on chelsea"

that's very bad for chelsea backers.... bookies are bagging for money on chelsea.... which means atletico either win the game straight up(which I really doubt it's going to happen) or they will draw which means all chelsea backers lose their money.... I smell big day for bookies tomorrow... at least from this game...

[Hybris]

This game is pass for me...but I wish you guys BOL

[Wilforth]

Bookies knew the money would be on Newcastle to beat Sheffield United, yet Newcastle won.
The line on Newells Old Boys (+105) to beat Tigres was fishy, yet Newells won.
Now, -125 line on a road team is fishy. We'll see what happens. All I know are:

1) one team wants to go as far as possible in the CL and the other team is more concerned about their domestic situation
2) one team has the better offense and defense
3) one team might keep a clean sheet (and I know which team is likely to do that).

So if Chelsea is a pass for you because the money will be on them (and money is always on them everywhere) then pass. But if you see value in the better team at -125, then Chelsea is the play.

[TurkzZ]

i like the play, Chelsea are far to strong for Atletico at the moment, id be amazed if chelsea lost this one

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

on it. GL to everyone!

[pitman]

Great pick. the only thing keeping me off this play is that it is not a must win game for chelsea.already got 9 points in their last 3 CL games and a big home game against man utd coming up.
I dont think chelsea loses but the draw does scare me.
chelsea havent conceded in their last 3 CL games. Atletico havent conceded in their last 2 home cl games. I see a tight match with it going under 2.5

GL wilforth. when im scared to bet it, it usually happens.

[stats13]

i like it also

[OperatorX]

I just like listening to Wilforth cuz he knows a lot more then me. I'm tailing, however I am also super suprised/suspicious to get chelsea at -107

[tbill11]

I guess one source of motivation here is, why not now? Chelsea will have harder games in the next two to clinch, so why not get it out of the way with a win here today. They definitely won't be playing their best lineup, but they'll probably still win.

I think the line value is deflated mainly because people expect Chelsea to slack off and would tend to bet Atletico DNB. I'm sure there's a lot of people on that play.

[Phillth]

reason for over.

Chelsea playing best front line
Chelsea playing weak backline
Atletico playing best front line
Atletico do they even have a back line?

[Hybris]

NVm

[OvertimePlease]

It seemed pretty fishy to me at first too, that's the square bet of the day.

[theplagy]

I like Milan a lot today, When was the last time Real won in Milan (AC) , never. The trend continues today.

Bordeaux and Besiktas looks good too.. GL w/ Chelsea

[Spaceviews]

Nice write up Wilforth, I'm tailing this pick. BREAK A LEG TODAY!!!!!

[OperatorX]

Well, Chelsea definitley isn't looking great so far.. but I'm still optimistic.

[BL]

Chelsea 0-1

[GoldRush7]

fukers

[pattymayo]

beautiful goal. Had a feeling Chelsea -125 was too generous. Good thing I only wagered my points on it.

[OperatorX]

big trouble

[Wilforth]

There goes our pick!

Atletico 1-0.

Today: 0-1 -1.00
1-1 +0.53 since Nov 1, 2009.

Chelsea

Atletico won't lose this game!
See you guys next time.

[OperatorX]

Hang on diddddddier

[SRBI]

Chelsea 1-1! NEED ONE MORE GOAL YOU ****ERS COME ON!

[GoldRush7]

C'mon Drogba put another one through!!

[OperatorX]

cmon drogba bury another one you have 10 minutes.

[CollegePro]

I am glad to skip this pick... like I said looked really fishy.... but still about 10-12minutes to go...so hope chelsea score for you guys. GL!!

[OperatorX]

Hahaha yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss drogba!! Whata comeback

[OperatorX]

I love Didier Drogba.. now just hannnnnnnng on!!

[pinnerpsk]

That away Drogba