Weekend plays 23.-25. Oct.

BL · 10-23-09, 07:42 AM

adding:

#2 UNDER 2,5 for Leverkusen-Dortmund +107 WINNER

I don't see a game with > 2 goals here. Expect this one to be a match not fun to watch

**Wilforth** · 10-23-09, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by BL

adding:

#2 UNDER 2,5 for Leverkusen-Dortmund +107

I don't see a game with > 2 goals here. Expect this one to be a match not fun to watch

Smart pick, more so that Leverkusen have kept clean sheets in 3 of their L4 home games.

**mariomonte** · 10-23-09, 08:33 AM

Completely agreed on both matches, especially since I've played both bets already before, at even slightly better odds.

However ...

I will also put a small amount on Werder -1 at +180 !

I suppose you're playing -1eh, i.e. -1.5ah.
Otherwise the bookie offering -1ah 2.8 would see serious traffic, including me.

BL · 10-23-09, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by mariomonte

Completely agreed on both matches, especially since I've played both bets already before, at even slightly better odds.

However ...
I suppose you're playing -1eh, i.e. -1.5ah.
Otherwise the bookie offering -1ah 2.8 would see serious traffic, including me.

yes, forgot everybody here is writing in AHC. I booked -1 eh, i.e. -1.5 ah !

**jayc88** · 10-23-09, 11:03 AM

no value on bremen imo,
-143 is too much chalk , teams who are playing on thursday in the uefa cup / europa league are doing pretty bad if they are playing on the road the following sat / sun

hope you still cash though

GL

**Wilforth** · 10-23-09, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

no value on bremen imo,
-143 is too much chalk , teams who are playing on thursday in the uefa cup / europa league are doing pretty bad if they are playing on the road the following sat / sun

hope you still cash

GL

Jayc88,

You jumped right ahead of me in pointing that out. Bochum has a situational edge in that game. Bremen played a game outside Germany only yesterday, travel back to base, and then get on the road again for Sunday's game. No doubt, Bremen has the technical edge, but Bochum clearly has the situational edge as they're well rested. A 1-1 draw won't surprise me in that game.
That's similar to what happened to Ajax when they played at Roda on a Sunday following a Thursday Europa game at Anderlecht. Ordinarily, you'd expect Ajax to beat Roda but Roda's situational edge cancelled out Ajax's technical edge and the game ended in a draw.

Similarly, I'm expecting Bolton +175 to beat Everton on Sunday. Everton played yesterday in Portugal and have some injury concerns that could see them fall at the well-rested Bolton.

**ji03** · 10-23-09, 11:17 AM

Im seeing the over/ under at 3 -150 for the Leverkusen-Dortmund game, so im assuming that we be good even though its large chalk, i dont have any other book to go to.

**Wilforth** · 10-23-09, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by ji03

Im seeing the over/ under at 3 -150 for the Leverkusen-Dortmund game, so im assuming that we be good even though its large chalk, i dont have any other book to go to.

Note these:
1) Leverkusen has kept clean sheets in 3 of their 4 home games.
2) Only one of the L4 Leverkusen's home games has gone Over 3.
3) Only one of Dortmund's L4 road games has gone Over 3.

If this game was played last year, Over would have been an easy call. But this year, Leverkusen's defense has improved greatly. You may decide what to do but I don't see much value in the Over in that game.

**RoagBettor** · 10-23-09, 12:45 PM

I'm on 3 unders today:

Leverkusen
Lokeren
Roda

Also, does anyone else notice that the "This Team MUST Win This Match" Theory doesn't usually happen?

BL · 10-23-09, 03:57 PM

Under in Leverkusen cashed (1:1)

2 shots on goal = 2 goals. As I said before Leverkusen won't be in the Top5 after this season. Fade them next week.

BL · 10-23-09, 04:00 PM

Well you are right saying Bochum is in the spot to steal points against Bremen. But this years Bochum is so much worse than last years.
And the fact Bremen played bad against Wien (yeah, nobody except Pizarro played with passion) gives Bremen the opportunity to answer on sunday as they usually do. So I am seing value even in -145 !

**RoagBettor** · 10-23-09, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

I'm on 3 unders today:

Leverkusen
Lokeren
Roda

Also, does anyone else notice that the "This Team MUST Win This Match" Theory doesn't usually happen?

All 3 unders cashed 2 at plus odds and 1 at even money.

BL · 10-23-09, 04:05 PM

Great plays, Roag !

**RoagBettor** · 10-23-09, 04:08 PM

WTF? I saw the Roda game was 2-0 FT and now it shows 2-1. Ugh!

Oh well I'll take 2 out of 3.

BL · 10-24-09, 05:58 AM

#3 Duisburg - Rostock OVER 2,5 -143 WINNER

2. Bundesliga. Both teams will play for the win and try to outscore the other team. I expect a 2-1 or 3-2 win for any team.

BL · 10-24-09, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by BL

#3 Duisburg - Rostock OVER 2,5 -143

2. Bundesliga. Both teams will play for the win and try to outscore the other team. I expect a 2-1 or 3-2 win for any team.

Bet won after 42 minutes! 0-3 Duisburg

I will take this result, too

2-0 so far this weekend.

**RoagBettor** · 10-24-09, 06:46 AM

BL · 10-25-09, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by BL

Here we go!
Already booked:

#1 Werder Bremen to win at Bochum -143

This line will drop faster than every american musclecar! Get it now!
After dropping 2 points in the Euroleague yesterday there is no way Werder Bremen won't win this on on sunday. I will also put a small amount on Werder -1 at +180 !

More plays to come.

Werder wins 4-1

3-0 on my plays, 4-0 including my Werder -1,5 handicap