A lesson in hedging

[Phillth]

This is how you make money.

First, pick 4 favorites preferably spread out over three or 4 days and make sure none of the matches overlap. this is key. heres a play im currently in:

7-17 6:00am Mito PK +110 Winner
7-18 8:00pm Trois Rivieres Attack -450 Pending
7-19 11:30am Red Bull Salzburg -1 -110 Pending
7-19 2:45pm Limerick -110 Pending

Risk 1000 to win 8000

The first pick is the pick is the pick you feel least confident about but enough to bet on. The later picks you are strongy confident in.

Ok so as we can see here the first pick is a winner. Now it is time to protect yourself. Tomorrow Trois will not lose the match worst they will do is draw. I will hedge 250 on the draw +400. This gives me my intitial 1000 should the unlikely event of a draw. Ok assume Trois win on to the third pick

RB Salzburg is a wall at home but Austria wein is decent so we will hedge 1100 with the opposite wien +1 -110. again i lock in my original stake. of course there is the possibility that Salzburg push here. i will get to that later. Assume Salzburg cover. Lets move on.

Limerick is the far better team in this situation but we are down to the nitty gritty here so we will hedge 450 on the draw +225 and 400 kildare +275.

Ok so what do we have here? If something goes wrong after the first pick we lose nothing. If everything goes according to plan we have spent 2200 hedging and we have won 8000 for a net of 5800.

As metioned earlier there is the possibility of a Salzburg push make the bet a 3 team parlay risking 1000 to win 3900. In this case you will only spend 450+400+250=1100 hedging giving you a final payout of 2800. still pretty nice.

There you go.

[tbill11]

This should be stickied my friend. Great stuff...never heard hedging explained better!

[cholo1124]

I'm trying to understand this better, so any further feedback would be great. I see three problem areas:

(1)

It seems that the first bet is the most questionable. You said it should be your least confident (though still enough to bet on).

But if you lose that bet, you're down $1000.

That's a pretty big hole to dig out of.

(2)

But let's assume you do win that first game.

We move on to Game 2, where you hedge by laying $250 (at +400) on the draw. You mention that Trois will not lose, they will only draw at worst. But let's face it, the whole point of hedging is that there are no "locks." Trois COULD very well lose, and then you'd be down $1250 at this point.

(3)

But let's go ahead and assume, as you do, that Trois wins. So you lose your hedged $250, but your parlay lives.

Now, on the third game, you hedge $1100 to win $1000 -- as you say, this locks in your original stake.

The problem I see here is that, if RB Salzburg loses, then you lose your parlay (-$1000) and win the hedge (+$1000), so you appear to be even. But you're not. You've lost $250 in the 2nd game's hedge.

At first glance, this seems relatively minor -- I'd be totally happy to risk $250 for the possibility to win $5800. However, the reason it's "only" $250 is that the Trois draw was +400. If you were getting, say, only +150 (in a different and probably more likely hedge scenario), then you'd actually be losing $666.


Given that 4-team parlays are pretty tough to hit, if you were to face enough of these little losses, then by the time you do finally hit a 4-teamer, you may be close to break even anyway.

But given this is the first I've heard about it, I'd be happy to hear more details. I'm actually very intrigued by this, and may give this a shot with MLB (obviously, with a much smaller stage to start with :-).

[xyz]

Multiple -ev bets do not combine to make it +ev

[Pancho sanza]

Multiple -ev bets do not combine to make it +ev

Agreed, the only exception is where there is correlation.


Unless there is, don't waste your time with these silly strategies.

[Phillth]

I'm trying to understand this better, so any further feedback would be great. I see three problem areas:

(1)

It seems that the first bet is the most questionable. You said it should be your least confident (though still enough to bet on).

But if you lose that bet, you're down $1000.

That's a pretty big hole to dig out of.

(2)

But let's assume you do win that first game.

We move on to Game 2, where you hedge by laying $250 (at +400) on the draw. You mention that Trois will not lose, they will only draw at worst. But let's face it, the whole point of hedging is that there are no "locks." Trois COULD very well lose, and then you'd be down $1250 at this point.

(3)

But let's go ahead and assume, as you do, that Trois wins. So you lose your hedged $250, but your parlay lives.

Now, on the third game, you hedge $1100 to win $1000 -- as you say, this locks in your original stake.

The problem I see here is that, if RB Salzburg loses, then you lose your parlay (-$1000) and win the hedge (+$1000), so you appear to be even. But you're not. You've lost $250 in the 2nd game's hedge.

At first glance, this seems relatively minor -- I'd be totally happy to risk $250 for the possibility to win $5800. However, the reason it's "only" $250 is that the Trois draw was +400. If you were getting, say, only +150 (in a different and probably more likely hedge scenario), then you'd actually be losing $666.


Given that 4-team parlays are pretty tough to hit, if you were to face enough of these little losses, then by the time you do finally hit a 4-teamer, you may be close to break even anyway.

But given this is the first I've heard about it, I'd be happy to hear more details. I'm actually very intrigued by this, and may give this a shot with MLB (obviously, with a much smaller stage to start with :-).

Very valid points here.

(1)

The amount of the wager is relative. It would wouldnt be a big hole to dig out of as 1000 for me is only 1 unit.

(2)

This is the biggest Favorite in the parlay. This is a huge mismatch. im willing to take the risk of Trois losing and eating 1.25 units.

(3) Im willing to eat that 250 as it is only a 1/4 unit. Yes 4 team parlays are difficult to hit at EV or -110 juice. in this case we have a huge fav. theoretically increasing our odd. And to be fair this is one of my more riskier parlays. usually i will play a 3 or 4 teamer with the first leg being in the +150 to -120 range and the remain legs in the -300 and up range.

A 4 teamer at say +100 -300 -350 -300 it much easier to hit than at -110 -110 -110 -110. I hit these pretty often but i only use soccer and tennis. i use tennis in the later legs quite a lot because there are only two outcomes to a match instead of three. I cant see this being used in baseball as you mention because quitely frankly i think baseball is too unpredictable(my opinion). Any team can beat any team in the league on any given night. With 162 games in the season there is less of an emphasis on each game

[donjuan]

Whoever moved/allowed this thread in the Think Tank is a moron.