One soccer pick - 07/03

[Wilforth]

Ireland: Dundalk +220 WIN

Don't be fooled by the line here. On paper, Derry looks like a clear favorite in this game, especially that they're 2nd in the standings and have won all of their L5 games. The fact of the matter, however, is that Derry are missing 7 regular starters due to injuries and suspensions. So we have a severely depleted Derry team on the road facing a resurgent Dundalk. Also note that Dundalk have beaten a fully healthy Derry this season.
Expected score: 2-0 in favor of the home dog.

[oda11]

SEVEN starters out? I am in! Good luck Wilforth!

[Wilforth]

oda11,

I contemplated a similar situational play yesterday on Llanelli +1000 and eventually passed on it. Know what? I regretted it. Motherwell were missing 6 regular starters. It's no wonder they lost that game yesterday.

Now to this Dundalk/Derry game, Dundalk have already beaten a fully healthy Derry on the road this season. The same Dundalk, riding a 2-game winning streak of their own, are at home against a severely depleted Derry. I'd ALWAYS take a modest home dog at +220 against a severely depleted favorite. You may check this for yourself:

http://www.freebetting.net/online_betting/202863/Rep._Ireland_-_Premier_League/Dundalk_vs_Derry

[oda11]

I see! Thanks for the info. How big would you play it? I didn't know they already beat them once. Now I know that I might add one more unit on them. Thoughts? Thanks again.

[Wilforth]

It's a $100 flat bet for me. $100 to win $220. If it cashes, I'll lay all that ($320) on:

Japan: JEF United +170
JEF will be on the road to Oita in the early hours of tomorrow. Oita isn't a soccer team by any means. It's no wonder they've lost 13 of their L15. I see them happily losing their next game.

[oda11]

Nice, thanks!

[Wilforth]

Oda11,

Oita are on a 12-game losing streak:

http://www.vitibet.com/index.php?clanek=profil&sekce=fotbal&tym=Oita%20Trinita&liga=japonsko&lang=en

[Wilforth]

Dundalk wins the 1st corner kick. Good sign.

[Wilforth]

Dundalk takes the lead: 1-0

[Phillth]

tailed you on this one. thanks for the heads up

[Wilforth]

Phillth,

You'll cash your parlay too. Bohemians hardly fail to score in the 2nd half. I don't see Bray scoring 2 goals in that game.

If Dundalk cashes, I'd also suggest you consider playing JEF United +170 in Japan tomorrow. They're playing Oita and as you can see in the site below, Oita "enjoys" losing:

http://www.vitibet.com/index.php?cla...ponsko&lang=en

[Phillth]

already on it. booked it last night

[Wilforth]

This game enters its most crucial stage - the last 10 minutes.

[Wilforth]

1-0 +2.20
Nice day.

Thanks guys!

[Phillth]

Icing on the cake. thanks wilforth

[oda11]

Thanks for the pick Wilforth!