Newbie to soccer betting. Best books? Double chance?
I am doing an experiment this year, using fivethirtyeight predictions to bet on FIFA world cup (I have done the same with March Madness in previous years with good results). I am doing it for small stakes, just for kicks.
With the data at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tions/matches/ I have the probabilities of each team winning and draw any game. But also could easily get the probabilities of any option not happening, which amounts to "double chance" bet.
So, I enter lines from 6 different books and bet in the option which gives the highest expected growth using Kelly formulas. To my surprise, often the "double chance" are the best value.
About the books, I found Matchbook, Pinnacle and 5dimes the lowest vig on moneylines. Bet365 is surprisingly moderate vig. BetCris is slightly less than the usual full vig (maybe due to my silver loyalty level). But SBO is very expensive; I had the impression they were good for soccer, I guess only in handicaps. Any other book suggestion?
The "double chance" is offered only in some books, and usually has awful odds. In close games when the +0.5 handicap is offered, the price is always way better than the double chance bet, while they amount exactly to the same. So, looks like books offer double chance as a high juice prop. I suppose betting directly on both chances would get better price in most cases. So, if no +0.5 handicap is offered, the best book to get the double chance is always matchbook. Any ideas on double chance?
Here are the results up to date (2 bets pending). The No Argentina just put me on the black.
With the data at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tions/matches/ I have the probabilities of each team winning and draw any game. But also could easily get the probabilities of any option not happening, which amounts to "double chance" bet.
So, I enter lines from 6 different books and bet in the option which gives the highest expected growth using Kelly formulas. To my surprise, often the "double chance" are the best value.
About the books, I found Matchbook, Pinnacle and 5dimes the lowest vig on moneylines. Bet365 is surprisingly moderate vig. BetCris is slightly less than the usual full vig (maybe due to my silver loyalty level). But SBO is very expensive; I had the impression they were good for soccer, I guess only in handicaps. Any other book suggestion?
The "double chance" is offered only in some books, and usually has awful odds. In close games when the +0.5 handicap is offered, the price is always way better than the double chance bet, while they amount exactly to the same. So, looks like books offer double chance as a high juice prop. I suppose betting directly on both chances would get better price in most cases. So, if no +0.5 handicap is offered, the best book to get the double chance is always matchbook. Any ideas on double chance?
Here are the results up to date (2 bets pending). The No Argentina just put me on the black.
| Date | Book | Team | 538 l | Line | Price | Risked | Grade | Decimal | Bet res | Balance |
| $0.00 | ||||||||||
| 14-jun-18 | Matchbook | Saudi Arabia | 733 | ML | 873 | $32.50 | 0 | 8.730 | -$32.50 | -$32.50 |
| 15-jun-18 | Matchbook | Egypt | 456 | ML | 660 | $89.30 | 0 | 6.600 | -$89.30 | -$121.80 |
| 15-jun-18 | Matchbook | No Uruguay | 117 | ML | 171 | $50.00 | 0 | 1.710 | -$50.00 | -$171.80 |
| 15-jun-18 | Matchbook | No Morocco | -150 | ML | -135 | $96.00 | 1 | 0.741 | $71.11 | -$100.69 |
| 15-jun-18 | Matchbook | No D (Spa-Por) | -270 | ML | -245 | $112.00 | 0 | 0.408 | -$112.00 | -$212.69 |
| 16-jun-18 | Bet365 | Draw (Fra-Aus) | 525 | ML | 650 | $40.00 | 0 | 6.500 | -$40.00 | -$252.69 |
| 16-jun-18 | Matchbook | No Australia | -1329 | ML | -1118 | $73.00 | 1 | 0.089 | $6.53 | -$246.16 |
| 16-jun-18 | Matchbook | No Argentina | 156 | ML | 270 | $282.00 | 1 | 2.700 | $761.40 | $515.24 |
| 16-jun-18 | Pinnacle | Denmark | 138 | ML | 151 | $55.60 | 0.5 | 1.510 | $0.00 | $515.24 |
| 16-jun-18 | Pinnacle | No Croatia | 104 | ML | 117 | $82.00 | 0.5 | 1.170 | $0.00 | $515.24 |