How common is the draw??

**bostonbruins** · 06-19-09, 10:51 AM

You said it yourself, the draw kills both bets, when you see plus money on both sides it usually means there is a higher chance of a draw so you will get screwed trying to play both sides of those games.. The thing about soccer is any game can end in a draw, even when you think it is the least likely outcome.

**Wilforth** · 06-19-09, 12:50 PM

Playing both sides at plus value won't be profitable in the long run. For instance, if both sides are each at +150 and you flat-bet them, that mathematically makes it a -133 play, assuming the game doesn't end in a draw. But the reality is that most tight games tend to end in draws. So betting draws in such games is a better option as you get such draws at about +220. A 40% win rate of +220 draws in tight games is easily realizable and that would guarantee a sustainable 35% return on investment.

The draws that are very rewarding if you know how to pick them are the high-end ones - those in the range of +300 to about +500. Such draws occur under one or a combination of the following conditions:
1) The offensive and/or defensive potential of the favorite is overrated
2) The defensive and/or offensive potential of the underdog is underrated
3) The favorite team fields a weak line-up when the bookmakers had assumed each team would field their "regular" line-ups. Such is often the case in most FA cup games, which is why such games often end in draws or upsets.
4) The favorite team has an off day
5) The game is fixed

**shhhhh22** · 06-19-09, 02:07 PM

I thank you for your replies...

Again with the stipulation that I'm flying blind here and just really thinking out loud... If taking both sides would end up being a losing endevour...

What if you took the spread favorite ML and the draw ML would your chances improve?

For example... using thegreek...

The spread = Sandefjord PK +105 vs. Valerenga PK -128
Money Line = Sandefjord +165, Draw +225, Valerenga +150

So in this case you take Valerenga ML +150 and Draw +225, so you'd only lose if the dog lost.

Again I have no history or backtesting just thinking out loud wondering your thoughts. Thank you all!

**han6** · 06-19-09, 02:20 PM

2008-2009 Season Statistics:

England - Premiership:
Home wins 173 (45.53%)
Draws 97 (25.53%)
Away wins 110 (28.95%)

Spain - Primera:
Home wins 184 (48.42%)
Draws 83 (21.84%)
Away wins 113 (29.74%)

Italy - Serie A:
Home wins 192 (50.53%)
Draws 95 (25.00%)
Away wins 93 (24.47%)

Germany - 1 Bundesliga:
Home wins 147 (48.04%)
Draws 74 (24.18%)
Away wins 85 (27.78%)

France - Le Championnat:
Home wins 165 (43.42%)
Draws 112 (29.47%)
Away wins 103 (27.11%)

You can see that about 25% games end in a draw.

**Wilforth** · 06-19-09, 02:34 PM

Hans6,

Yes, about 25% of games in the above leagues end in draws but you may find out that over 75% of those draws are in close games. For instance, you wouldn't expect draws in these kind of matchups: Man Utd/West Brom, Barcelona/Almeria. In closer matchups, the percentage of draws increase. It didn't surprise me that in their league and FA Cup games, the Liverpool/Everton matchup produced a perfect 4 draws out of 4 meetings in the season that just ended.