Saturday Conf. Cup

**Dark Horse** · 06-18-09, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

Umm somebody tell me why I should not go heavy on Iraq and Span?

1. Spain has already qualified for the semis, but they still need to clinch the 1st place spot, so there for they should play their starters and go for the win.

3. S. Africa must get the win, so they will be playing up tempo and hungrey. Both teams needin the win: SPAIN!

Why does Spain need to clinch 1st place? There is no real motivation for them to do so. The goal for both teams is to reach the semis. Winning the group is secondary. Anyway, Spain only needs a tie to clinch 1st place.

South Africa, with Pienaar back, completely outplayed New Zealand, but forgot to run up the score. They only need a tie to reach the next round, with the home crowd going wild for them. (A tie gives them 5 points, and Iraq can only reach 4 points).

When both teams in international soccer only need a tie to reach their goal, the chances are pretty good that they end up sharing the points. That's why the tie for this game doesn't have the best of payouts.

South Africa +0.5 or, riskier, South Africa to win SU (because IF there is one game in this tournament that Spain won't care about, this is it. I think they're too proud not to care, so will take SA ATS.).

**dwest718** · 06-18-09, 07:19 PM

Ermm... Spain wants to win because they'd prefer to play Egypt than Brazil. I don't know about you but I'd rather play Egypt than Brazil as well. Spain will play to do no worse than draw so picking South Africa SU is illogical. Betting +0.5 is risky but could be intelligent.

**sportsguy04** · 06-19-09, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Why does Spain need to clinch 1st place? There is no real motivation for them to do so. The goal for both teams is to reach the semis. Winning the group is secondary. Anyway, Spain only needs a tie to clinch 1st place.

South Africa, with Pienaar back, completely outplayed New Zealand, but forgot to run up the score. They only need a tie to reach the next round, with the home crowd going wild for them. (A tie gives them 5 points, and Iraq can only reach 4 points).

When both teams in international soccer only need a tie to reach their goal, the chances are pretty good that they end up sharing the points. That's why the tie for this game doesn't have the best of payouts.

South Africa +0.5 or, riskier, South Africa to win SU (because IF there is one game in this tournament that Spain won't care about, this is it. I think they're too proud not to care, so will take SA ATS.).

spain wants to clinch 1st place so they have to play the 2nd place team in the other Group which will likely be Egypt assuming Brazil Ties, or beats Italy.

Im sticking with my gameplan from earier, Spain -,5 Iraq -1.

**Dark Horse** · 06-19-09, 10:04 PM

If this were the World Cup I would agree with that type of reasoning. But it is not.

Spain may well win, based on superior quality, but to them this is a semi-friendly tournament, and they use it as warm-up/tune-up. The same goes for Brazil. If anything, these top teams care more about playing each other, because it's good practice, than about winning this meaningless tournament. They care little to nothing about avoiding each other in the semis.

The tournament, of course, means something completely different to South Africa and, to a lesser extent, to Egypt.

The one thing going for you is that SA could get through to the next round even with a loss. Depending on the score in the other game.

And the big uncertain is SA's defense. They haven't been tested, and in two games have allowed only, get this, 1 shot at goal. (Spain has allowed six).

**Netprofit** · 06-20-09, 12:45 AM

playing Draw is good in the circumstances in the Spain game even if payout is lower than usual.

**bostonbruins** · 06-20-09, 10:22 AM

If I was going heavy I would put it down on the Spain Under. Like Dark Horse said, Spain doesn't need to win , and I expect to see some bench players get some time. I'm looking for a boring defensive game 0-0, 1-0, 1-1

With that said, I am not going heavy but will be taking the under.

**Karayilan9** · 06-20-09, 10:37 AM

Taking South Africa is a big risk in this game, they have played 2 awful teams and their defense hasn't been really tested at all, the few occasions it was they looked shaky.

For me its Spain ML or no play, South Africa can't be trusted, they arn't organized, disciplined and experienced enough to be taken heavy. Spain couldn't break down Iraq, it looked bad on Spain especially since Brazil turned it up a gear.

Spain will want to prove to themselves and their doubters that they can break down defensive teams, I have yet to see if South Africa can play defensive, they have been the dominant team against Iraq and New Zealand this is a totally different kind of game. There is not much value in South Africa Win or the Over/Under, there is too much uncertainty and their are better games today or tomorrow to make money on.