Is this a high percentage play?

[bostonbruins]

Man U and Arsenal


Betting total goals to be odd and betting the draw will turn a profit with 7 of the 9 most likely outcomes.

Total Goals Odd (-110) 1.1u
Draw (+240) .5u

0-0 +.1u
1-0 either way +.5u
1-1 +.1u
2-0 either way -1.6u
2-1 either way +.5u
2-2 +.1u


Unless the game goes 2-0 either way, this bet pays. Anyone have any experience betting this way?



I was also looking at some final score odds. If I was leaning toward a Man U win, the 3 most likely outcomes I would expect are the ones below, I would also throw a unit on the draw (+240) and recover most of your risk on a draw.


ManU 1-0 +500 1u > profit +2u
ManU 2-0 +650 1u > profit +3.5u
ManU 2-1 +700 1u > profit +4u
Draw +240 1u > loss .6u

I know this isn't much different than laying the chalk on a Man U pk but I like the fact that the more they score the more money you make




Any feedback is appreciated, I'm trying to find better ways to make money.

[Wilforth]

These look very probable:

ManU 1-0 +500 1u > profit +2u
ManU 2-0 +650 1u > profit +3.5u
ManU 2-1 +700 1u > profit +4u

[Smogs]

Good insight BB - i like the man utd correct scores
Don't know if i want to bet this game, man utd should win but, arsenal are in great form while man utd look shaky, no bet in this for me except maybe under 2.5 goals and half time draw

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

I understand your sentiment. But let's note that:

1) Gallas, Arshavin, Van Persie, and Rosicky are all out for Arsenal

2) Man Utd have only been shaky when they're without the defensive pair of Ferdinand and Vidic.

I don't expect a goal fest in such a game. I personally expect an unexciting and gritty goalless 1st half and one or two Man Utd goals in the 2nd half.