Two soccer picks - Wednesday

**Smogs** · 01-13-09, 08:39 PM

any reasons or just a cheeky midweek punt? catania are useless away from home
maybe under 2.5 goals in these games would be a realistic bet as well?
not clued up on ligue 2

**Wilforth** · 01-13-09, 10:50 PM

Smogs,

They're no punty picks. Here are my reasons:

Catania
Catania have only scored in 4 of their L9 road trips. Two of those games in which they scored were against Juventus and Inter, which means they tend to score on the road against the big clubs. This same Catania held Juventus to a 1-1 draw in their last league meeting in Turin. Now, Juventus are chasing Inter for the Scudetto and won't take lightly their next league game at Lazio. I figure the likes of Del Piero will not feature for Juve in this Cup game. If Catania held Juve here to a 1-1 draw when Juve played at full strength, then they can better that performance against Juve's "B" team.

Chateauroux
They're on the road against Bordeaux and are clearly not fancied to get anything here. But here's the thing. Bordeaux is trailing Lyon in the league by only one point and with the way Lyon are playing right now, Bordeaux would fancy their chances of winning the title this year. Their next game comes up on the 17th at Nantes and you can trust the coach to rest the players he "really" needs for the league game.

Bottomline: the less fancied teams take these cup games far more serious than the elite teams. In sports, hunger facilitates upsets. The hungrier team could score first and defend in numbers and claim all points on the day. Don't be surprised if Southend beats Chelsea tomorrow. Such is the stuff of cup games.

**Smogs** · 01-14-09, 08:26 AM

thanks, may have a little bet myself now, probably go with catania and chateauroux on the asian handicap for security

**bostonbruins** · 01-14-09, 10:21 AM

GL Wilforth, how do you like the under for Juve/Catania?

**Wilforth** · 01-14-09, 11:15 AM

I like the Under for the Juve/Catania game. Catania on the road won't get more than one goal at Juve. Juve won't score more than one in a relatively meaningless game. That Catania held Juve to a 1-1 draw earlier and conceded only one goal against AC Milan recently, suggests they tend to defend in numbers against the top sides. The Under looks good, more so that this is a cup game. I'm expecting 3 possible scorelines: 1-0, 1-1, 0-1. I hope it ends 0-1, so my small play can cash.
I missed Nottingham Forest (+800) at Manchester City the other day. I figured Forest could win the game but let it pass and they eventually won. Let's not be fooled by the lines. Any team that can score, can win a game! That's all.

MJ · 01-14-09, 11:33 AM

I am game. I put $10 down on both your picks. Good luck with that.

MJ · 01-14-09, 11:37 AM

I agree with you on the lines. I have been burned too many times betting Chelsea, Liverpool and the like on the ML only to get a tie or even a loss.

**Wilforth** · 01-14-09, 03:32 PM

I may have picked the wrong teams. It's like Southend is up to it against Chelsea. Southend lead 1-0 early in the 1st half!

**squintz4** · 01-14-09, 03:40 PM

Southend is just packing the defensive third. Dropping all eleven behind the ball, trying to squeak out the 1-0 result. Not pretty but proving to be effective thus far.

**Pat_Bateman** · 01-14-09, 05:01 PM

San Lorenzo to win tonight seems like a solid bet 1.95 @ bookmaker

**bostonbruins** · 01-14-09, 06:20 PM

I was thinking about San Lorenzo too, maybe a small play for me.

**Wilforth** · 01-14-09, 06:30 PM

I like San Lorenzo too.