In soccer, you'll keep losing bets the more you underrate viable underdogs. Based on this thinking, here are my Sunday Special picks:
England:
Manchester City +300
Portsmouth/Blackburn draw +220
1) Manchester City did the double against Man Utd last year with a team that was inferior to the current Man City side. Also consider the fact that Man Utd have only won twice in their L7 road games.
2) It's tempting to think Portsmouth will beat Blackburn but put your money on a Portsmouth win and you'll get burnt.
France:
St. Etienne +325
St. Etienne are better than the position they now occupy in the French League. They occupy the bottom of the table right now. Fear of relegation will be more than enough motivation to upset a Nancy side that is neither aspiring for the league title nor in danger of relegation. The more desperate side is more likely to win this affair.
Italy:
Napoli +600
Genoa/Bologna draw +240
1) Only twice have Inter scored more than one goal in a game in their L6 home games. On the flip side, only twice have Napoli failed to score in their L6 road games. Napoli is currently among the top four teams in the Italian league and with the offensive mediocrity of Inter, one feels Napoli has a chance of winning here.
2) A Genoa win in the Genoa/Bologna match-up looks like an easy call. But Bologna will be content to just sit back and defend, which bodes well for a draw.
Spain:
Deportivo La Coruna +250
Deportivo are on a resurgence. They've won 3 of their L5 and one of those 3 was on the road. On the flip side, their hosts, Almeria, have won only one of their L5, drawing one and losing three in the interval. Deportivo's offense is clicking right now and they look primed for a road win at Almeria.
Final note: In soccer, upsets occur at about the same frequency as favorite wins. So why not take a chance with the better odds?
England:
Manchester City +300
Portsmouth/Blackburn draw +220
1) Manchester City did the double against Man Utd last year with a team that was inferior to the current Man City side. Also consider the fact that Man Utd have only won twice in their L7 road games.
2) It's tempting to think Portsmouth will beat Blackburn but put your money on a Portsmouth win and you'll get burnt.
France:
St. Etienne +325
St. Etienne are better than the position they now occupy in the French League. They occupy the bottom of the table right now. Fear of relegation will be more than enough motivation to upset a Nancy side that is neither aspiring for the league title nor in danger of relegation. The more desperate side is more likely to win this affair.
Italy:
Napoli +600
Genoa/Bologna draw +240
1) Only twice have Inter scored more than one goal in a game in their L6 home games. On the flip side, only twice have Napoli failed to score in their L6 road games. Napoli is currently among the top four teams in the Italian league and with the offensive mediocrity of Inter, one feels Napoli has a chance of winning here.
2) A Genoa win in the Genoa/Bologna match-up looks like an easy call. But Bologna will be content to just sit back and defend, which bodes well for a draw.
Spain:
Deportivo La Coruna +250
Deportivo are on a resurgence. They've won 3 of their L5 and one of those 3 was on the road. On the flip side, their hosts, Almeria, have won only one of their L5, drawing one and losing three in the interval. Deportivo's offense is clicking right now and they look primed for a road win at Almeria.
Final note: In soccer, upsets occur at about the same frequency as favorite wins. So why not take a chance with the better odds?
