Cl 11/26

[Dark Horse]

I'm willing to bet that 95% of soccer fans in Europe until this season had never heard of... Anorthosis. A complete unknown on the international scene, yet now in proud possession of the second spot in the group! Think Appalachian State and multiply by ten.

Werder Bremen is coming to visit, and this is a must-win for the Germans. So surely the Cinderellas from Cyprus will catch the pumpkin to where they belong before its too late. Right? Not so fast. Anorthosis already held Bremen to 0-0 in Germany! And here is Anorthosis home record for the competition:

3-0 over Rapid Vienna
3-0 over Olympiacos
3-1 over Panathinaikos
3-3 versus Inter Milan!

Meanwhile, Werder hasn't won a road game - in any competition- in two months. And they are winless after four games in the CL group, tying three of the four games.

Pick:
Anorthosis +0.5 -117

[Wilforth]

What do you think of goals Over 2½ (-160)?

[Wilforth]

And here is Anorthosis home record for the competition:

3-0 over Rapid Vienna
3-0 over Olympiacos
3-1 over Panathinaikos
3-3 versus Inter Milan!

Pick:
Anorthosis +0.5 -117

Also note that Anorthosis haven't lost a home game in all competitions since January 2007.

[Dark Horse]

Also note that Anorthosis haven't lost a home game in all competitions since January 2007.

I'll take it.

The over I'm not sure about. The problem is that I've never seen Anorthosis play. Werder can't afford to fall behind, so probably will play very conservative. I thought this was a must-win for Bremen at first, but it's not really. They're just two points behind Anorthosis. Werder has one more game, at home against Inter Milan. If Inter wins today, which is likely, they've won the group. That gives Werder an easier last match. So the first priority for Werder is not to lose today. But I don't know how Anorthosis will approach the match. They still have to play at Panathinaikos. Are they going to go all out tonight?

In any case, Werder would be foolish to try to force this early. Their best chance is to sit back, go into halftime 0-0, and then try to win it without a lot of time left for the home team to equalize. If it's scoreless at the half I may take a look at the 2H over. This game is about the last half hour.

Werder is the first CL opponent in Nikosia that is not from South-Europe. Cooler heads prevailing, and lower scoring? (How on earth did Inter Milan get involved in a 3-3 game here?)

(that would be over-analyzing... Can't bet those.)

[Wilforth]

Werder can't afford to fall behind, so probably will play very conservative.

In any case, Werder would be foolish to try to force this early. Their best chance is to sit back, go into halftime 0-0, and then try to win it without a lot of time left for the home team to equalize. If it's scoreless at the half I may take a look at the 2H over.

(that would be over-analyzing... Can't bet those.)

Note that Werder has only kept one clean sheet on the road all season. It's hard to imagine Werder keeping a clean sheet against a team that has scored 3 goals in each of their L4 European home games.

Werder to keep a clean sheet +800
Werder to concede -1000

[BeanSaunce]

So the pick is still for Anorthosis to win?

[Dark Horse]

I have them at +0.5. To win or tie.

[pronk]

Sorry to dissapoint you dark horse but there is a "feeling in the air" that Bremen will take 3 points from Anorthossis.

[Dark Horse]

2-2 for the winner.

How about this:

If it's scoreless at the half I may take a look at the 2H over. This game is about the last half hour.

Game was scoreless until the 62nd minute.

[Dark Horse]

In the other group game Inter Milan lost at home to Panathinaikos. Very suspect result. Only goal in 69th minute, i.e. while Anorthosis was up 2-0 and threatening to clinch second place in the group. At that point Panathinaikos had to win...

Now Anorthosis has to win its final game in Greece.