Italy Serie A - 11.13.08

[bostonbruins]

Genoa @ Juventus

Going by the numbers, I don't see Genoa scoring. They've scored 3 goals in 5 away games and Juventus has been pretty stingy at home, only conceding 3 goals in 5 games.

I see this shaping up to a 1-0 Juventus win, but I've been wrong before.

Pick: Juventus -181
Under 2.5 (-133)

[Wilforth]

Bostonbruins,

Your analysis is spot on. But a couple of things to note are these:
1) Juventus have been winning lately because of Del Piero's raging form. But we don't expect the "A" Del Piero to show up in every game.
2) Genoa remain unbeaten in their L5 and one of these results was a goalless draw at Inter Milan.
3) Juventus have won their L4 and I think a 5th straight win isn't too likely by Juventus' current standards.

I think this is shaping up to either a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

I wouldn't touch Juventus at -181. The value is in goals UNDER 2.5.

You may also consider playing Getafe +280 to beat Osasuna in the Copa del Rey. Getafe is on the road where they appear to be more successful than at home. Osasuna have only scored one goal in their L5 home games!

[Wilforth]

You may also consider playing Getafe +280 to beat Osasuna in the Copa del Rey. Getafe is on the road where they appear to be more successful than at home. Osasuna have only scored one goal in their L5 home games!

Sorry, Getafe is +180, not +280.

[bostonbruins]

Thanks Wilforth, you're input is always appreciated.

[bostonbruins]

Well that was a ridiculous ending. Oh well at least they won.

[Wilforth]

It's funny really. In their L5 home games it was only once (against Roma) that Juventus scored more than one goal and it's also only once (against Pallermo) that they conceded more than one goal. So Under 2.5 was really the best pick from an analytical point of view but we've been proved wrong once more.