Mayweather/McGregor arbitrage opportunity

**GzaTheGenius** · 08-21-17, 11:02 PM

McGregor could only win in a knockout situation. If by some stroke of luck he happens to catch Mayweather off guard, I guess it isn't too crazy to see this happening

Mayweather price should be a lot higher IMO

**dlowilly** · 08-21-17, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by GzaTheGenius

McGregor could only win in a knockout situation. If by some stroke of luck he happens to catch Mayweather off guard, I guess it isn't too crazy to see this happening

But he doesn't have to for you to make money

The is +500/-375 about a 5% arb

**boneheaded1** · 08-22-17, 01:18 AM

i bet fight to go distance, mayweather to be knocked down and Connor to win KO, TKO or DQ.

Floyd Is not knocking out Connor. No how, no way. Connor has fought way heavier hitters with lighter gloves. And Floyd isn't a knock out fighter, especially now.

"Floyd the Avoid" will do just that and win on points. fight will go the distance unless Connor lands solid.

**grease lightnin** · 08-22-17, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by boneheaded1

i bet fight to go distance, mayweather to be knocked down and Connor to win KO, TKO or DQ.

Floyd Is not knocking out Connor. No how, no way. Connor has fought way heavier hitters with lighter gloves. And Floyd isn't a knock out fighter, especially now.

"Floyd the Avoid" will do just that and win on points. fight will go the distance unless Connor lands solid.

Has Connor ever gone 12 rounds in a boxing match?

**Art Vandelay** · 08-22-17, 02:14 AM

Completely agree with this! The only thing that can mess this up is if Connor wins a 12-round decision which is almost impossible. If Connor were to win, it will be an early KO, and if Floyd avoids him as expected, $May will definitely win a full distance fight on points.

**plekz** · 08-22-17, 04:57 AM

Originally posted by boneheaded1

Floyd Is not knocking out Connor.

Getting a stoppage due to unanswered strikes (TKO) isn't that difficult at all in Boxing, and Floyd will be punishing McGregors body probably at will so.

**jjgold** · 08-22-17, 05:24 AM

Arbs good if you can get minimum $2000 every play

**milwaukee mike** · 08-22-17, 06:53 AM

where offshore can you get -350 or -400? bovada's -400 is only on the square lines

matchbook and pinnacle are the only ones i see under -450

**slambam** · 08-22-17, 07:04 AM

Anybody else on Floyd in a decision? Got it around +240 if I remember right. I feel like there's a lot of value in it. As much as I want Floyd to lose, I just don't see it happening. I don't see a KO either though.

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 08-22-17, 09:27 AM

Don't get cute with the props; Mayweather at -450 to -500 is tremendous value.

**boneheaded1** · 08-22-17, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by plekz

Getting a stoppage due to unanswered strikes (TKO) isn't that difficult at all in Boxing, and Floyd will be punishing McGregors body probably at will so.

Very rarely does that happen without someone getting rocked. It happens but not very often. I don't see stoppage happening unless one is visibly "out on their feet"

That's kind of funny too, Floyd will avoid and work the points. He may say he is gonna be aggressive but he won't. That would be stupid and would play into connor's strength. As much as I hate Floyd, he isn't stupid.

**milwaukee mike** · 08-22-17, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by boneheaded1

Very rarely does that happen without someone getting rocked. It happens but not very often. I don't see stoppage happening unless one is visibly "out on their feet"

That's kind of funny too, Floyd will avoid and work the points. He may say he is gonna be aggressive but he won't. That would be stupid and would play into connor's strength. As much as I hate Floyd, he isn't stupid.

it happens all the time... chances of mayweather winning by tko are better than odds of mayweather winning by ko

”KO only" does not include TKO or DQ
Sat 8/26	779 Mayweather wins by KO only	+315
11:00PM	780 Any other result	-445

"TKO / retirement only" does not include KO
Sat 8/26	781 Mayweather wins by TKO / retirement only	+172
11:00PM	782 Any other result	-235

**plekz** · 08-22-17, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by boneheaded1

Very rarely

When other pro boxers are involved, this isn't pro boxer against pro boxer. It's 49 - 0 vs 0 - 0 let that sink in, it's a 49 - 0 professional boxer vs a guy that has no discernable experience in professional boxing what so ever. A guy that gasses in 10 minutes in his own sport and that have shown to not carry power well.

Floyd doesn't have to be aggressive, Conor will gass due to hitting air and the fact he tends to put power on every shot he throws and he has mediocre at best cardio.

Also you are stupid if you think Floyd can't 'rock' a guy who has no professional boxing experience.

**Unwritten Law** · 08-22-17, 01:27 PM

You guys saw the adjustment Conor has made since he first fought Nate and loss. He got his second wind in the rematch and looked more fresh later in the championship rounds. I think Conor might make this one interesting. Seems easy to take Floyd but I will go with Conor and I wouldn't be surprised to see how low the odds are closer to fight day.

**chargers4222** · 08-22-17, 01:47 PM

Awesome, I was gonna just bet McGregor but now I'll just bet McGregor by decision.

**5918mike** · 08-22-17, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Unwritten Law

You guys saw the adjustment Conor has made since he first fought Nate and loss. He got his second wind in the rematch and looked more fresh later in the championship rounds. I think Conor might make this one interesting. Seems easy to take Floyd but I will go with Conor and I wouldn't be surprised to see how low the odds are closer to fight day.

But Diaz is a big punching bag compared to Floyd. I just can't get past the fact that even though Conor is a professional fighter, he's an amateur boxer. His only chance IMO is to come out in a fury for 3 rounds and try to catch Floyd, but if he doesn't, he's done for.

**5918mike** · 08-22-17, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by plekz

When other pro boxers are involved, this isn't pro boxer against pro boxer. It's 49 - 0 vs 0 - 0 let that sink in, it's a 49 - 0 professional boxer vs a guy that has no discernable experience in professional boxing what so ever. A guy that gasses in 10 minutes in his own sport and that have shown to not carry power well.
Floyd doesn't have to be aggressive, Conor will gass due to hitting air and the fact he tends to put power on every shot he throws and he has mediocre at best cardio.
Also you are stupid if you think Floyd can't 'rock' a guy who has no professional boxing experience.

I agree with this 100%

**milwaukee mike** · 08-22-17, 02:52 PM

the 49-0 pro boxer has been off for almost 2 years, and is 40 years old... hasn't beaten anyone decent in 3 years (pacquiao had torn rotator cuff and berto sucks)

mike tyson was unbeatable, right until he wasn't

**chargers4222** · 08-22-17, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

the 49-0 pro boxer has been off for almost 2 years, and is 40 years old... hasn't beaten anyone decent in 3 years (pacquiao had torn rotator cuff and berto sucks)

mike tyson was unbeatable, right until he wasn't

This is the correct way to view this fight, regardless of who you back. If you think Floyd absolutely cannot lose, he will. That's just how it works.

**Wohlford** · 08-22-17, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by dlowilly

This isn't a polish middle if you think about it

Mcgregor wins inside the distance-you can find Mcgregor to win inside the distance at around +500

Mayweather to win is as low as about -350 to -400 in some books

Is there any chance McGregor would ever win a decision? McGregor wins by outboxing Mayweather for 12 rounds? No way, not a chance

Here's how you might lose: the fight ends up in a kind of Cruz/Garbrant dynamic where the Young Gun suddenly displays a mastery we didn't know he was capable of and the Old Dog suddenly isn't quite his old self anymore. Nonetheless, the Old Dog is tough enough and knows enough tricks to go the distance somehow.

Probably a lot of people got Polish Middled on that fight too, taking Garbrant by TKO/KO and Cruz by decision.

**shadymcgrady** · 08-22-17, 03:10 PM

This fight is going to end in a draw or no decision and eff everyone over

**plekz** · 08-22-17, 03:26 PM

The Tyson - Douglas analogy is laughable.

**boneheaded1** · 08-22-17, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

it happens all the time... chances of mayweather winning by tko are better than odds of mayweather winning by ko

”KO only" does not include TKO or DQ
Sat 8/26	779 Mayweather wins by KO only	+315
11:00PM	780 Any other result	-445

"TKO / retirement only" does not include KO
Sat 8/26	781 Mayweather wins by TKO / retirement only	+172
11:00PM	782 Any other result	-235

Yes TKO's happen all the time but rarely for someone not striking back. It's usually because the fighter is essentially out on their feet.

A knockout is when someone does not get up by the count of ten. A TKO is every other reason. Some dude gets rocked, he gets up and falls into the ropes. He is obviously done but the count has stopped because he got up. Ref steps in and stops fight. TKO not a KO.

I think that is what you meant. Not just unanswered blows.