#14 Mendelssohn - Top Choice suggest Win-Place-Show Wager
Love the Post Position as he will have extra room at the break being the last horse in the Main Gate as both the #14 and #15 post has the benefit of the extra space between the main gate and auxiliary gate. I know that horses shipping from overseas haven’t had success in the past in the Kentucky Derby but this horse has shown he can ship from overseas and win as he won here in the BC Juvenile Turf Race. It also must be noted that he raced overseas on Oct 14 then at DelMar on Nov 3rd that was pretty remarkable for a 2 year old to run two races so close together and have a grueling ship thrown in on top of that. Mendelssohn raced on dirt for the first time in his last start and had his best race of his career winning the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths. With 7 lifetime starts this horse has the perfect foundation and shipping all over the world has given him experience to handle all kinds of different distractions. With 5 starts at 2 and 2 starts at 3 this horse is fresh and ready to go. Note Mendelssohn has victories carrying 126 Lbs, 131 Lbs and 134 Lbs no other horse in this Derby field has carried more than 124 lbs in victory.
#6 Good Magic - Long shot Pick suggest Win-Place-Show Wager for 1/2 of Mendelssohn
I love how this horse has been brought into this race. He had 3 starts as a two year old and even though he hadn’t broke his maiden the connections knew what they had and raced him in the BC Juvenile and he exploded in the stretch to win going away. This year he has 2 starts a 3rd in the Fountain of Youth a race that Chad Brown said he was probably short being the first start of the year . But came back in the Bluegrass and once again showed that explosion in the stretch to pull away. Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby as he owns tactical speed to get away where he wants which is just off the pace setters in a stalking position so that when he does make his move he gets the jump on all the closers. Good Magic is 5 for 5 for hitting the board and with just 5 starts still has potential for another big jump up talent wise. Good Magic is my long shot choice.
#7 Justify
In a few weeks we could be talking about Justify and using words like Super Horse, possible Triple Crown Winner but right now we are asking him to do a lot of things he has never done before. We all know about the curse of Apollo as no horse that hasn’t raced as a 2 year old has won the Derby since 1882 when Apollo did it. With only 3 starts I’m more concerned about how will he react to racing on another surface as all three races were at Santa Anita. How does he react to not being on the lead as Promises Fulfilled with be the horse setting the pace? He’s only raced once against stakes company and that was in the Santa Anita Derby and honestly there was only one other horse in that 7 horse field that had a chance and that was Bolt D’Oro who didn’t need the points to get into the Derby as he already had enough points to get in the Derby but Justify did need to win. How will Justify handle the large field as all 3 of his races had short fields. Again in a few weeks we will have all of these answers but right now at a short price I’m not going to pay to find out but with that said he has to be on our tickets because I don’t want to miss an exacta or Trifecta because I left him off the ticket.
#11 Bolt D’Oro
Picks up Victor Espinoza as Javier Castellano chooses to ride Audible after being aboard Bolt D’Oro the last 2 races. Some will look at that as a strike against Bolt D’Oro but I don’t as Todd Pletcher will supply Castellano with many more live mounts than Mick Ruis will so this was a business decision I feel more than a talent decision. Victor clearly knows how to win Triple Crown Races so I’m fine with him aboard. There is too much value to leave him off the ticket as because he was clearly beat by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby people are now down on him. Remember he didn’t need the points I don’t think they raced him all out I think they wanted to leave something in the tank for the Derby. Justify was on an uncontested lead with moderate fractions. He wasn’t getting by him that day but Justify won’t be on a uncontested lead today and the difference in price makes this horse attractive. Bolt D’Oro will be in that preferred stalking group and is 6 for 6 in the money and 5 of his 6 races were graded stakes. He’s clearly the most accomplished against the toughest completion in the field. Bolt D’Oro is the forgotten horse with a ton a value and will be on all my tickets
Here is my exact Betting Ticket how I am playing the Kentucky Derby. I want to thank all of you for your support and Good Luck to us all.
Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $240
$1 Trifecta 6-7-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 4-5-6-7-9-10-11-14-16-18 = $160
$1 Trifecta 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40
$1 Trifecta 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40
Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $155
$1 Exacta Box 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $30
$3 Exacta Box 6-7-11-14 = $36
$4 Exacta Key 14 over 6-7-9-10-11 = $20
$2 Exacta Key 6-7-9-10-11 over 14 = $10
$3 Exacta Key 6 over 7-9-10-11-14 = $15
$2 Exacta Key 7-9-10-11-14 over 6 = $10
$3 Exacta Key 14 over 4-5-16-18 = $12
$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 14 = $6
$2 Exacta Key 6 over 4-5-16-18 = $8
$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 6 = $8
Love the Post Position as he will have extra room at the break being the last horse in the Main Gate as both the #14 and #15 post has the benefit of the extra space between the main gate and auxiliary gate. I know that horses shipping from overseas haven’t had success in the past in the Kentucky Derby but this horse has shown he can ship from overseas and win as he won here in the BC Juvenile Turf Race. It also must be noted that he raced overseas on Oct 14 then at DelMar on Nov 3rd that was pretty remarkable for a 2 year old to run two races so close together and have a grueling ship thrown in on top of that. Mendelssohn raced on dirt for the first time in his last start and had his best race of his career winning the UAE Derby by 18 1/2 lengths. With 7 lifetime starts this horse has the perfect foundation and shipping all over the world has given him experience to handle all kinds of different distractions. With 5 starts at 2 and 2 starts at 3 this horse is fresh and ready to go. Note Mendelssohn has victories carrying 126 Lbs, 131 Lbs and 134 Lbs no other horse in this Derby field has carried more than 124 lbs in victory.
#6 Good Magic - Long shot Pick suggest Win-Place-Show Wager for 1/2 of Mendelssohn
I love how this horse has been brought into this race. He had 3 starts as a two year old and even though he hadn’t broke his maiden the connections knew what they had and raced him in the BC Juvenile and he exploded in the stretch to win going away. This year he has 2 starts a 3rd in the Fountain of Youth a race that Chad Brown said he was probably short being the first start of the year . But came back in the Bluegrass and once again showed that explosion in the stretch to pull away. Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby as he owns tactical speed to get away where he wants which is just off the pace setters in a stalking position so that when he does make his move he gets the jump on all the closers. Good Magic is 5 for 5 for hitting the board and with just 5 starts still has potential for another big jump up talent wise. Good Magic is my long shot choice.
#7 Justify
In a few weeks we could be talking about Justify and using words like Super Horse, possible Triple Crown Winner but right now we are asking him to do a lot of things he has never done before. We all know about the curse of Apollo as no horse that hasn’t raced as a 2 year old has won the Derby since 1882 when Apollo did it. With only 3 starts I’m more concerned about how will he react to racing on another surface as all three races were at Santa Anita. How does he react to not being on the lead as Promises Fulfilled with be the horse setting the pace? He’s only raced once against stakes company and that was in the Santa Anita Derby and honestly there was only one other horse in that 7 horse field that had a chance and that was Bolt D’Oro who didn’t need the points to get into the Derby as he already had enough points to get in the Derby but Justify did need to win. How will Justify handle the large field as all 3 of his races had short fields. Again in a few weeks we will have all of these answers but right now at a short price I’m not going to pay to find out but with that said he has to be on our tickets because I don’t want to miss an exacta or Trifecta because I left him off the ticket.
#11 Bolt D’Oro
Picks up Victor Espinoza as Javier Castellano chooses to ride Audible after being aboard Bolt D’Oro the last 2 races. Some will look at that as a strike against Bolt D’Oro but I don’t as Todd Pletcher will supply Castellano with many more live mounts than Mick Ruis will so this was a business decision I feel more than a talent decision. Victor clearly knows how to win Triple Crown Races so I’m fine with him aboard. There is too much value to leave him off the ticket as because he was clearly beat by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby people are now down on him. Remember he didn’t need the points I don’t think they raced him all out I think they wanted to leave something in the tank for the Derby. Justify was on an uncontested lead with moderate fractions. He wasn’t getting by him that day but Justify won’t be on a uncontested lead today and the difference in price makes this horse attractive. Bolt D’Oro will be in that preferred stalking group and is 6 for 6 in the money and 5 of his 6 races were graded stakes. He’s clearly the most accomplished against the toughest completion in the field. Bolt D’Oro is the forgotten horse with a ton a value and will be on all my tickets
Here is my exact Betting Ticket how I am playing the Kentucky Derby. I want to thank all of you for your support and Good Luck to us all.
Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $240
$1 Trifecta 6-7-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 4-5-6-7-9-10-11-14-16-18 = $160
$1 Trifecta 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40
$1 Trifecta 6-7-9-10-11-14 over 7-14 over 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $40
Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $155
$1 Exacta Box 6-7-9-10-11-14 = $30
$3 Exacta Box 6-7-11-14 = $36
$4 Exacta Key 14 over 6-7-9-10-11 = $20
$2 Exacta Key 6-7-9-10-11 over 14 = $10
$3 Exacta Key 6 over 7-9-10-11-14 = $15
$2 Exacta Key 7-9-10-11-14 over 6 = $10
$3 Exacta Key 14 over 4-5-16-18 = $12
$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 14 = $6
$2 Exacta Key 6 over 4-5-16-18 = $8
$2 Exacta Key 4-5-16-18 over 6 = $8