No, These Indictments Don't Strengthen Trump. That's Just Media Nonsense | Opinion
Now that Special counsel Jack Smith has dropped a devastating, historic set of charges on Donald Trump for conspiring to end American democracy, we're going to hear a lot more of one of the flimsiest hot takes out there: Indictments only strengthen Donald Trump.
Wrong.
Despite what the headlines would have you believe, if you look at a the neutral polling average at FiveThirtyEight, Trump got an unimpressive increase of only two points after his New York arraignment, and an even milder point and a half after the classified documents indictment. And both effects faded shortly after. Not exactly a show-stopper, and these kinds of minor, temporary movements are consistent with patterns we saw after the FBI search of his home at Mar-a-Lago and during his first impeachment.
Now that Special counsel Jack Smith has dropped a devastating, historic set of charges on Donald Trump for conspiring to end American democracy, we're going to hear a lot more of one of the flimsiest hot takes out there: Indictments only strengthen Donald Trump.
Wrong.
Despite what the headlines would have you believe, if you look at a the neutral polling average at FiveThirtyEight, Trump got an unimpressive increase of only two points after his New York arraignment, and an even milder point and a half after the classified documents indictment. And both effects faded shortly after. Not exactly a show-stopper, and these kinds of minor, temporary movements are consistent with patterns we saw after the FBI search of his home at Mar-a-Lago and during his first impeachment.