How to calculate this....

[louisvillekid]

If there is roughly 130,000,000 million households in the US.

And roughly 250,000,000 registered vehicles(personal use) in the US.

Yearly new automobiles sold is around 15,000,000 in the US.

So what would be the average length of vehicle ownership?


I realize there are numerous variables involved as to why someone would get or need a new vehicle sooner than someone else.

[BrickJames]

If there is roughly 130,000,000 million households in the US.

And roughly 250,000,000 registered vehicles(personal use) in the US.

Yearly new automobiles sold is around 15,000,000 in the US.

So what would be the average length of vehicle ownership?


I realize there are numerous variables involved as to why someone would get or need a new vehicle sooner than someone else.

Off the top of my head I would say 2.7 years

[KVB]

Let's work it out.

I think we should disregard the used car market, for now. I also think we should disregard the 130 million household number as well.

So let's look at 250 million owned cars. Using your numbers, let's say at year 1, of those 250 million, 15 million are replaced with a new car. After year 2, 15 million more.

If we do this, we have 16.67 "chunks" or "years" before we've turned over all 250 million cars.

Now, some guys will be a new car every year, and some will wait all 16.67 years before buying a new car. Some may never buy the new car.

Let's assume there are an equal number of people in each of those categories. For every guy buying a new car every year, there will be a guy waiting 16 years to buy.

For every guy waiting just 2 years to turn over his car (buy a new one), there will be a guy waitin 15 years, etc.

1 yr +16.67 yrs......2 yr +15.67 years...etc.

We get a total of 17.67 divided by any two owners in just about each case. This will average to about 8.8 years owned per car.

Again, we are making some simple assumption here, like when a car is replaced, it doesn't get resold or go to the used market.

I like Brickers thoughts of 2.7 years, as to come to that number he's assuming more people turn a car over in the first 8 years than there are those who never turn the car over in a 16 year cycle. He's probably right there.

I was keeping it simple here and obviously we can adjust these numbers with more specific demographics.

[OldBill]

i alwys owned used cars longest ever current one only had 50 K on it 6 years now still in good shape

others maybe 3 years

[MinnesotaFats]

Better question is scrap rate.

I'd say we're at peak ownership percentage wise, w a 6% scrap rate (17.5mm), and of course most families do 3 year leases now anyway.

[louisvillekid]

I wonder how many vehicles get written off as being totaled out from accidents/wrecks; or how many are totaled out from mother nature events, on a yearly basis.

[louisvillekid]

I've only bought one car brand new, and i drove it for about 12 yrs.

All my other vehicles have been slightly used, or really, really used and beat up and cheap. It's one end of the spectrum or the other. Some vehicles I drove only 6 months till I had enough money to get a better used vehicle, and some used vehicles I drove 10yrs.

[MinnesotaFats]

I wonder how many vehicles get written off as being totaled out from accidents/wrecks; or how many are totaled out from mother nature events, on a yearly basis.

6% or 17.5mm year

Scrap rate