CA GOV Gavin Gruesome errrrr Newsom recall odds.............

[Kermit]

Can you imagine if the Political parties were reversed and a white Republican woman in a gorilla mask was throwing eggs at a black Democrat who was runnign for Governor?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW - Larry Elder, who wants to become California's first Black governor, attacked by gorilla-masked individual throwing eggs in Los Angeles neighborhood.<a href="https://t.co/NRNYpfb03I">pic.twitter.com/NRNYpfb03I</a></p>&mdash; Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) <a href="https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1435713143964065794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >September 8, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[chico2663]

our state is full of jerk-offs, you will see come 9.14

but man, Minny, it is fukkin beautiful out here, Mate

SoCal is THE BEST.

i always say.....Love it or GTFO !!!

Fats is an idiot. Dude Was trying to tell me shit about my job in Ohio but didn’t know which laws apply to which states…in stead of admitting he was wrong. He went silent. Computer was worst thing invented for that jerk. It gave him a little knowledge of everything.But not enough too have any REAL KNOWLEDGE!

[ericc]

Can you imagine if the Political parties were reversed and a white Republican woman in a gorilla mask was throwing eggs at a black Democrat who was runnign for Governor?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW - Larry Elder, who wants to become California's first Black governor, attacked by gorilla-masked individual throwing eggs in Los Angeles neighborhood.<a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/NRNYpfb03I">pic.twitter.com/NRNYpfb03I</a></p>&mdash; Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1435713143964065794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >September 8, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is theatre.

The polls indicate that Newsom is starting to pull away.

A demonstration like this is ill-advised and not productive.

Unless it was a fake by Republicans to make Newsom look bad. But it is still unnecessary.

[chico2663]

Little unknown fact about the Trump family. His gramps got kicked out of Bavaria. Why pray tell…he never served in military and didn’t pay taxes.20 yrs after he immigrated he tried to go back.But they refused him. Dude owned a whorehouse in Canada.

[homie1975]

Gavin wins easy on 9.14

not even close.

[homie1975]

This is theatre.

The polls indicate that Newsom is starting to pull away.

A demonstration like this is ill-advised and not productive.

Unless it was a fake by Republicans to make Newsom look bad. But it is still unnecessary.

yup staged

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Racist gorilla throwing eggs at Larry <a href="https://t.co/dGfrF12nGk">https://t.co/dGfrF12nGk</a></p>&mdash; Sol�� (@Solmemes1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Solmemes1/status/1435770838180106241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >September 9, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[homie1975]

It's all over but the crying

[ericc]

Biden to campaign for Newsom

President Joe Biden will travel to California sometime next week to campaign in support of Gov. Gavin Newsom, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-to-campaign-for-newsom-in-california-early-next-week/ar-AAOc8Y4

If California Gov. Gavin Newsom really has built a commanding lead in the polls then why is he calling on the White House to prop him up in the waning days of the state's do-or-die Sept. 14 recall election?

Newsom’s supporters were buoyed by a survey released last week by the Public Policy Institute of California that showed 58 percent of likely voters rejecting the recall, compared to 39 percent supporting the effort.



If we could see the internal polls then we could see why.

[DwightShrute]

[homie1975]

he's going to survive..

[ericc]

Little unknown fact about the Trump family. His gramps got kicked out of Bavaria. Why pray tell…he never served in military and didn’t pay taxes.20 yrs after he immigrated he tried to go back.But they refused him. Dude owned a whorehouse in Canada.

Most people think that Bavarian military was criminal.

[homie1975]

Most people think that Bavarian military was criminal.

bavarian chocolate is NOT criminal though, but kinda fattening

[DwightShrute]

Bongino had a great point on his Show today.... Larry Elder attack, no investigation but Bubba's garage pull got 17 agents in 24 hours on sight.

[retard]

There is a zero percent chance of any Republican ever winning California the boomer idiots who think AOC can be beat by a Republican that republicans can win in New York can give it a rest

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

This is a hard state to govern. Half the people are always fed up with whoever is in office bc there are so many competing interests that have irreconcilable differences.

He's done as well as anyone prolly could've done during the last two years.

I'm on the same page as you. This state is way too big for 1 person to govern and anyone will be set up for failure at it. Cali really needs to be split into 2 states to be successful. But democrats would never let it happen

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

There is a zero percent chance of any Republican ever winning California the boomer idiots who think AOC can be beat by a Republican that republicans can win in New York can give it a rest

Arnold ran as republican and won pretty easily...

[PromiseLand]

O/U for # of audits afterwards?

[homie1975]

O/U for # of audits afterwards?

they're not dumb enough to do that here in beautiful CA - they know they are outnumbered 2 to 1.

they do that stuff in AZ and GA where they have a closer margin in terms of registered voters per party.

and then they try to suppress the voting ;-)

[DwightShrute]

Let's hope Californians get rid of that POS Newsome!

[homie1975]

Let's hope Californians get rid of that POS Newsome!

at least give the guy the decency of spelling his name right: It's Newsom.

and it's also DwYane Wade, not DwaYne Wade.

a PSA for a POS ;-)

[DwightShrute]

at least give the guy the decency of spelling his name right: It's Newsom.

and it's also DwYane Wade, not DwaYne Wade.

a PSA for a POS ;-)

you are obviously highly educated lol

[KVB]

All i have found online are MONEYLINES and they are approx -300 that is NOT recalled.

post a link to a "pointspread" on this type of political wager?

something like, YES to recall gets O/U so many votes vs NO to recall..

that would be a point spread type of wager akin to what you would find in football.

P.S. -300 ML is MUCH lower than a -28 point spread

You can get some winning margin bets. And there is a translation, sort of.

BOL shows this...

Politics Special Props Will Gavin Newsom be removed from office in 2021?
12:00 AM	999036	No		-1500
999035	Yes		+600

And with that -1500 line there is a winning margin bet...

Governor Races California Recall - Winning Margin
11:59 PM	74170	Over 13½ %		-120
74171	Under 13½ %		-120

The descrition of that winning margin bet reads...

"By what margin will voters choose to 'Keep' Gavin Newsome as California Governor in the recall election scheduled for 14th September2022"

A few of the props have the year wrong, but I think that's a typo.

[PromiseLand]

they're not dumb enough to do that here in beautiful CA - they know they are outnumbered 2 to 1.

they do that stuff in AZ and GA where they have a closer margin in terms of registered voters per party.

and then they try to suppress the voting ;-)

Haha, let the games begin

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A form linked on Elder&#39;s website invites voters to sign a petition challenging a Newsom victory.<br><br>It demands a special session of the legislature to &quot;investigate and ameliorate the twisted results of this 2021 Recall Election of Governor Gavin Newsom.&quot;<a href="https://t.co/WPyY75FRGq">https://t.co/WPyY75FRGq</a></p>&mdash; Lara Korte (@lara_korte) <a href="https://twitter.com/lara_korte/status/1436412797517131776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >September 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

BOL's -1500 line has an implied probablility of 93.75%

Predictit shows this...



Small value of on the no?

lol

[PromiseLand]

And here's 9 different bets you can make on the recall: https://www.predictit.org/markets/search?query=newsom

[homie1975]

Haha, let the games begin

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A form linked on Elder&#39;s website invites voters to sign a petition challenging a Newsom victory.<br><br>It demands a special session of the legislature to &quot;investigate and ameliorate the twisted results of this 2021 Recall Election of Governor Gavin Newsom.&quot;<a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/WPyY75FRGq">https://t.co/WPyY75FRGq</a></p>&mdash; Lara Korte (@lara_korte) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/lara_korte/status/1436412797517131776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >September 10, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[KVB]

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article254078633.html

...It also states that, if there is an audit of the recall election, county election officials should not be a part of the recount, because doing so would be similar to “allowing an alleged criminal to examine the crime scene,” the petition says.

Finally, the petition claims, without evidence, that “statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in 3rd-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor.”...

Unreal though if it is real. The California GOP missed an opportunity here, they just have no strategy.

I think the way the petition eventually got it's signatures, like the extension of time to gather them because of COVID, came too fast for them. Then there wast he restaurent thing...lol.

I think it all snowballed and early on they figured this recall attempt would fail like the other 5 from 2019 alone so they just didn't have a go to or anything.

Now the strategy is to blast text because every ballot is personalized and they know at cagop if their reigisterd voters have voted yet or not.

They can tie those registered folks to their numbers and the clerk recorder/registrar of voters tells them whether or not they received your ballot. It's not just by the envelope.

There is a unique id number on each ballot that is also on the front of the envelope, next to your name. That number is different for everybody and it matches with the ballot inside.

There is no seperation of envelope and ballot, essentially.

[KVB]

You can track your ballot like a UPS package...lol.

"Tracking your ballot - when it is mailed, received, and counted, has never been easier"

--CA SOS

[homie1975]

that was fun.....