Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[DiggityDaggityDo]

If they win the bid, you can have both and we can get court side seats to The BBC...

If there really is a God he will make this happen.

[turtledoves]

take the jets now?

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

361

21-Sep

KENTUCKY +6 (-102)

Here are the other plays so far in that Fund...

339		21-Sep	W MICHIGAN +5.5 (-110)
343		21-Sep	MICHIGAN +3 (+100)
367		21-Sep	AUBURN +4 (-105)
411		21-Sep	S ILLINOIS +21.5 (-120)

[turtledoves]

Was that the difference between Rizzo vs no Rizzo? Crazy movement there.

he played yesterday, rothstein had to anticipate another start right?

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

306

20-Sep

USC +3.5 (-105)

I hope this hits.

[KVB]

take the jets now?

Here's what I have...

Oct 13, 2013...Den -27 over JAX.

2007...NE was favored by 20.5, 22, and 24 over NYJ, MIA, and PHI respectively. Also in 2007 NE opened a 20.5 point favorite on the road in Balty, but that line closed at 19.

Dec 4, 2011...NE -20.5 over IND.

NONE of the favorites covered the spread but they all won the game with NE beating both Philly and Balty by only 3 points in '07.

Seattle was favored by 19.5 in 2013 and they covered that spread but unless we go to 18 or 17 the favorites just have not been covering these large spreads.

They don't happen often though, and the Jets could be in much bigger trouble than Miami, in my opinion...

LMAO at the Rodney Dangerfield vid.

It's just hard to tell, seems like Miami has a better chance to cover. If the Pats are making a strong first half of the season run, then the margins of victory would ideally increase until we hit a high and then we bet against it.

But the Pats started out with the big blowout.

So maybe it's about the Dolphins and a rebound.

[turtledoves]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topfreedom

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

909	20-Sep	PIT +196
912		SD -102
921		BOS +166

[KVB]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topfreedom

Clearly there's already some bottom freedom.

Amirite?

[turtledoves]

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has added...

307		20-Sep	FL INT +7.5 (-112)
347		21-Sep	N MEX ST +4.5 (-105)
362			MISS ST -6 (-105)
370			TULSA -3.5 (-105)
394			FLORIDA ST -6.5 (-110)
396			UTEP +14.5 (-112)

Should have waited until it hit 4 on the USC play.

Also notice #362 MISS ST -6, that is a contradiction to the Visiting Dog Fund of Kentucky +6.

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

314		20-Sep	MIA (OH)/OHIO ST UNDER 56.5 (-105)
398			UCLA/WASH ST UNDER 58.5 (-105)

No time, lines are moving.

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

907

SF +1.5 (-105)

[pdprodigy]

The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has added...

307		20-Sep	FL INT +7.5 (-112)
347		21-Sep	N MEX ST +4.5 (-105)
362			MISS ST -6 (-105)
370			TULSA -3.5 (-105)
394			FLORIDA ST -6.5 (-110)
396			UTEP +14.5 (-112)

Should have waited until it hit 4 on the USC play.

Also notice #362 MISS ST -6, that is a contradiction to the Visiting Dog Fund of Kentucky +6.

How can you be on both Florida st and Louisville?

[KVB]

How can you be on both Florida st and Louisville?

It happens. Sometimes the different strategies contradict. The expectation is that all Funds will finish positive so it wouldn't be a good idea to try to eliminate a potential winner in one Fund in hope of avoiding a loss in another Fund. After all, all Funds will have some losses.

In the case of Louisville/Florida St, Louisville was bought at the open in the in the Visiting Dog ML Fund for +265. Value was identified there and here is the reasoning for that Fund...

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund, like some of the other funds, seeks to exploit the inefficiencies of road underdog market. This is another moneyline basket of bets that uses stacking percentages forecasts along with market analysis to determine if we have enough value in the marketplace to pull the trigger.

The moneylines are slightly larger dog bets and therefore we expect to lose more bets than we win. Sometimes it takes patience to get the win. I expect close to 120 plays and this tracking can be used as a gauge of that market. This is a market function but doesn’t quite look like the UPSET basket because while patience for the win can be true for a season, it’s also true over the longer haul. When this market does get hot, it gets hot....

Then comes along a different strategy altogether with the ATS/ML Fund. While ML is in the title it is pretty much a spread fund often with with a contrarian hint. It's similar in strategy to the Totals Fund...

...I am now introducing the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund.

It's very similar in handicapping to the NCAAF Totals Fund...

...KVB NCAAF Totals Fund. This Fund will track NCAA Football Total plays generated using a blend of two methods. First, the games will be handicapped with a stacking percentages forecast and that will overlay a market analysis that includes regressions and can often take a contrarian form. There will be triggers to plays, but they won’t always be bought at the open. There will often be time for the market to mature, providing more information to develop a play, which can result in better or worse numbers...

Remember, I'm not trying to necessarily pick the team I think will win here, I am seeking value in the market based on specific strategies and pulling the trigger there. History shows that if you are getting the value, the winners will come.

So to me, the winning bet isn't always the winner, but over time it's the winning bet.

Louisville was bought at +265 and most houses didn't even open without adjusting to about +210 and Florida State was bought at -6.5 and I wouldn't be surprised if we see 7 there.

The upset happens less often, and if it doesn't come tomorrow, here's to hoping it's at least a TD victory, if not a blowout.

[KVB]

There's also a contradiction with Kentucky at Miss St.

When the moneylines came out, Kentucky +230 was bought in the Visiting Dog ML Fund mentioned above. It's tough to find +200 out there now.

Then earlier today market analysis and situational factors were applied to the original forecast to give us a Kentucky +6 bet in the Visiting Dog Fund...

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation.

There will be no moneylines in this Fund and the target circle and number of plays will vary each week as the stacking forecast methods will be enhanced by different factors, many of them determined by the ever changing market. The target circle will be much wider than that of the ATS/ML Fund and as always it is expected to be a grind...

...From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where it’s at in college football and we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund...

Now understand that the original stacking percentages forecast has Miss St. winning with 34 points to Kentucky's 21 or 23 points. Whether it's a predicted 11 or 13 point margin, the adjustments made above get us to a 10 point or closer margin and then another adjustment literally cuts that in half.

Sure, I'd love to have +7 there, but the market was already in agreement on 6 by the time the adjustments could be made, especially the big one. The market saw it coming.

Booty break...



Ok, where was I. Oh yeah.

So then came the ATS/ML trigger.

Remember the stacking forecast already shows an 11 to 13 point Miss St win. Honestly, at -7 that's not very good and even at 6 it isn't great.

But, just like the Louisville/Florida St. game, action money and movement has been on the dog, this time Kentucky.

It doesn't take much for the market adjustment to put this forecast over 14. Once there, the distance between -6 and -14+ is enough to give us value in the market at this time.

So we contradict but we do it in the name of all Funds being positive by seasons end or even a longer haul. All Funds will have losers, so I don't worry about them, but the last thing we want to do is eliminate a winner from one strategy just because another says it's dust.

These Funds operate in a closed environment, independent of each other, assessing expected value based on their own specific strategy and the long haul.

Contradictions aren't ideal, but sometimes we get agreement too and when those win, it's a nice boost for everyone.

[KVB]

WTF?

[turtledoves]

good series

[turtledoves]

...smoking on chronic at pic nics

[Da Manster!]

Texas Chainsaw Massacre (1974)...one of the most iconic horror movies of all-time...this is the scene where Leatherface kills Kirk and Pam...however, thanks to improved technology and high quality HD, we can clearly Pam's hairy pubes peeking out @2:14-2:15!...pause...thank me later...damn I belched!...

[KVB]

Looks like the slate is clean save one error.

Tennessee triggered at better than +400 in the Visiting Dog ML Fund but I missed it.

Currently trailing 0-7, let's hope they lose.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Left or Right?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Left or Right?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

Picked up some NFL...

468 CIN/BUF UNDER 43.5 (-104)

475 MIA +22.5 (-113)

479 CAR +2 (-105)

488 CLE +3.5 (-109)



Need to make a dispensary run, having some troubles here.



I'm going to pick, pack, fire it up so come along, and take a hit from the bong. All I'm saying is to put the blunt down, just for a second and don't get me wrong, it's not a new method.

[turtledoves]

thanks for the LSU over tip, saved me from a loser

#KVB'sHigh

[Bostongambler]

Left or Right?

Left

[Bostongambler]

Diggity let me know if she chooses me as well.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

BG she chose you.

BUT she said only if you give her anal.

Balls in your court.

[Bostongambler]

BG she chose you.

BUT she said only if you give her anal.

Balls in your court.

Me with hands in my front pockets and down kicking a rock. I guess.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[DiggityDaggityDo]