Monster Flop - Any way I can fold given the action and amount I have in?

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  • Emily_Haines
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-14-09
    • 15917

    #1
    Monster Flop - Any way I can fold given the action and amount I have in?
    1/2NL

    UTG raises 10 and guy in cutoff calls and I call on button with KhJh. There is about 30 in pot. Stacks are as follows UTG $175, CO $800, me $400

    Flop comes QhJcTh

    My first thoughts were how I was going to just jam this flop and make these guys fold. But it did not unfold that way. UTG leads out with a pot size bet of 30 and CO makes it 75. I play several hands with UTG and I know this flop hit him as he don't preflop raise that much and especially as UTG, the cut off is a guy who plays lots of hands and plays bad post flop. He over values his holdings and can't fold overpiars, two pairs, etc, and usually leaves the casino broke.

    The pot now has 145 and I think I have zero fold equity if I jam. To make matters worse if UTG ships it in the CO can reraise making me have to play this hand for all my money. I had played pretty well all night and it would suck to lose it all on this one hand.

    I look at the CO and ask him "you got AK?" It don't really matter because he makes the same play with K9 or 89. I have a K blocker in my hand making AK less likely. I decide to just call the 75.

    The UTG goes into the tank and decides to ship it all in and the button also goes all in. Now it's 315 and on me. Pot has 670 in it. I'm pretty sure the UTG has a set of QQQ and CO has str8. I think there is a pretty good chance if an A or 9 comes I could win it or at worst chop it two ways.
  • slikec
    SBR MVP
    • 01-11-11
    • 1032

    #2
    If you put them on your range(QQ and AK) which is two best hands they have(or both having AK) btw and with giving one As(taking you 1 out) is hard fold but 1. you gave them top range 2. if you play scared money leave table.

    Here is hard replayer(http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/4257848) shoving odds if one have AsK and other QQ you have 25% and is fold but i doubt they had what you wrote and i would probably call(depends on players reads).
    Comment
    • B1GER1C828
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 07-31-07
      • 10244

      #3
      If its your hands vs qq vs ak, and the guy doesnt have the A of hearts. you got a 31% chance of winning(or so).

      Giving that you say CO is pretty loose, i wouldnt put him on that strong of a hand. He could easily have J10 suited or even qj(as unlikely as it is due to the flop). If either is the case, i probably call. Again, you have a king so he likely doesnt.

      I think you put CO on too good of a hand. If CO has a hand like j10 suited, your a 47% dog to win on a 2-1 pot. I call.

      I think more likely than not, your not facing a str8 and a set. Seems to me you'd basically just be playing against UTG. And whether he has AK or QQ, pot odds still say to call.
      Comment
      • ballahollic2
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-30-10
        • 986

        #4
        I'd ship on flop.
        Comment
        • Emily_Haines
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-14-09
          • 15917

          #5
          I end up calling the all in's. Just hate sticking 85 in and then folding. It was 2:00AM and either I hit it or go home. I rivered the flush and won. The CO had AK and bemoaned his bad luck. I put the hands in the odds calculator and was really surprised to see the guy holding the nuts on the flop was only 33% to win the hand.

          Comment
          • thetrinity
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-25-11
            • 22430

            #6
            Wow what a yikes hand. Cutoff culd have 3bet preflop with ak easily, maybe he shouldnt if utg is so tight, i still wulda tried to get him heads up. Anyways no reason to give the cutoff so much respect here, utg really doesnt have many chips and u r favored against a large part of cutoffs range i ship flop and feel ok about it
            Comment
            • rm18
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 09-20-05
              • 22291

              #7
              no way you could of folded, either they don't have as big of hands as you thought or the hands they have raises your chance to make the flush
              Comment
              • brucethebear
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 08-16-10
                • 724

                #8
                I would have shipped it on the flop. Even with the hands you put them on, you have a lot of outs.
                What would have been sick was if the board came running hearts, and UTG had the Ah.
                (Also, I prefer to jam on the draw, rather than call off my chips on the draw.)

                Anyway, props for correctly working out what they had.
                Comment
                • dumbmoney
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-26-11
                  • 235

                  #9
                  No way you fold that hand. Even if they have the best possible hands which is what you put them on (top set and the nut str8) you still have the right odds to call in that situation. And they won't always have the two best hands. They may both have sets or both have str8s and you would be in much better shape.
                  Comment
                  • Ramster
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 06-08-09
                    • 81

                    #10
                    if you put them on QQ and AK you could have folded without a doubt. since the only way you can win is flushing. still the three of a kind guy has the edge to land a FH. you did good not going all in first time, reading their hands. going all in with all that info is not sensible.
                    Comment
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