tournament question

[scottyy11]

this is a frequent problem i run into. How should hands that are slightly better than random hands be playey in SB/ or BB when your at the final table and down to 3-7 players

here is a example: 4 players are left at final table ..blinds are 5k 10k no antes............you have 45k after posting the 5k sb

bb has 50k
all fold around to you the SB (two players who folded have stacks of 100k and 40k)

you pick up k2o in SB not a great hand but it was folded around to you and you hand is above average.


do you

a) flat call the 5k
b) raise 3-5xbb and hope the bb has less than a average hand
c) push allin
d) fold and look for a better spots



also what is the minimum hand you guys would push allin with? given the short table.

[QuickLearner]

I'll take a shot at this. First, my apologies; it's my birthday and I've been drinking, so don't take this advice to the Bellagio with your life savings...okay?

You have 45K and you'll be paying 15K to play every 4 hands from now on, so you are incredibly short-stacked. Your M is 3! That means you have 2 options: push or fold. Options A and B are off the table.

Against a tight opponent (one who would call with TT+, AQs+, AKo) it's an insta-push. He doesn't have enough to call most of the time. According to SnG Power Tools (which works fine even though this may not be a sit-and-go) your EV is +4.3% by pushing.

Against an average player (who calls with 66+, ATs+, AJo+) it still is a strong push; +3.7% EV.

Against a loose player (who calls with 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs) you still push, EV +3.0%.

Against a maniac (who calls with 22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs) again you'd push, +1.6% EV.

Those are simply math answers. The decision should be based on more than that, especially when it comes to the last question, what my minimum push hand would be. If the BB is a solid player I'd push any two and take my chances on him folding. If he's an idiot who is sick and tired of my stealing him blind every time he's in the BB, or if he recently took a beating from someone and is on tilt, I'd have to take that into account. Normally...but not this time. I am out of time.

I have almost no fold equity left because my stack is only 4.5 big blinds. The big stacks are to my right. I may never get another chance to be heads-up again. In this case I push any two. Fourth place isn't so bad...

[scottyy11]

yep i generally push........just seem to lose alot with k2 , q6s type hands but i guess thats just poker............only thing u can do or be blinded out. I play very well in tourns till my stack gets under 10xs BB......thats the weak part of my holdem game

[QuickLearner]

I think at this point you have to get a little lucky. To borrow a football analogy, when you're forced into playing marginal hands you are throwing the bomb on 4th down. Remember what Don meredith used to say about passing? "Three things can happen when you throw a football...and two of them are bad."

It's the same here. If the villain wakes up with a real hand you're probably done. If he has a lousy hand and calls anyway (especially since in your example he is in the same situation as you) he may run you down. The rest of the time he folds or you catch a card or two and win. Once you're super short stacked you just have to get lucky. The thing that makes it easier in your example is that you can play heads up.

[McFly]

Couldn't have said it better myself quick. I'd push it here unless like quick said, you've pushed 4 sb's in a row against this guy and he might take a stand with any two face cards or similar. Then maybe I wait for a better spot. Otherwise, you have to push here.

[slacker00]

I agree with QuickLearner. The math suggests when to push and when to fold. The thing is that you should have a very good read on the BB by now, if you've played down from a final table of 10. The +EV really comes down to how you think the BB will play. Also, how are the others going to play? If they are playing somewhat reckless irregardless of a large prize difference from 4th to 3rd place? Maybe play tight and wait for them to bust each other and move up in the money. Or are the playing very scared and conservative? Then aggression is the answer.

The problem with a question like this is that there is no clear cut answer, and we are eeking out +EV by analysing some smaller details. The fact is if the decision is close, both options are viable (pushing and folding), you should be able to live with either decision.