Could be a good Final Table

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2nd - Mizrachi. The Grinder came from way back. Sucked out on several All Ins.

3rd - Dunaway. Looks like an aggressive player. May take hi-variance lines.

4th - Hallaert. Second Final Table. Has had some success in past.

5th - Margets. Pretty hot female player. She's good. First female to win it?

7th - Hendrix. Pretty solid player.

[stevenash]

I love everything about Mizrachi, especially his style of play, so I have an emotional attachment there.
I'd also love to see 'Leo' win, women (unless you're Vanessa or Jen Tilly) get no respect at the table, plus I love a good underdog story.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I love everything about Mizrachi, especially his style of play, so I have an emotional attachment there.
I'd also love to see 'Leo' win, women (unless you're Vanessa or Jen Tilly) get no respect at the table, plus I love a good underdog story.

Hi, Nash:
1) I love Leo. Probably the sexiest poker player out there. And she has a brain.

2) Props to Mizrachi. I think his GAME is a little over-rated. If you study him, he's a guy that likes to apply pressure. I'll be looking for the player who decides to counter his aggression. He's often over-playing his hand.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Hi, Nash:
1) I love Leo. Probably the sexiest poker player out there. And she has a brain.

2) Props to Mizrachi. I think his GAME is a little over-rated. If you study him, he's a guy that likes to apply pressure. I'll be looking for the player who decides to counter his aggression. He's often over-playing his hand.

Chucky, you cannot argue with Mizrachi's results and skill at maneuvering his way through massive fields. I feel like he is underrated when you take a step back and look at all his accomplishments live and online.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, you cannot argue with Mizrachi's results and skill at maneuvering his way through massive fields. I feel like he is underrated when you take a step back and look at all his accomplishments live and online.

In the interview they ask him about HOF. So, I guess he has results and longevity.

Margets made an excellent play in the late stages. Got her to the Final Table:
*Button opens for 2x. She calls (w/ stack of 18BB) with 77.
...This is the correct play. Too deep to shove. And could see action behind.
...Mizrachi in BB 3-bets. Button Folds. Margets shoves All-In.
...Mizrachi calls, he has AT(s). Says that she should have Folded.
...No, she surely knew of Mizrachi's aggression. 77 is a good hand in a two-way All In. Not good in a 3-way All In.
...She hits her Set. But didn't need it. Makes the Final Table.

I can see other players making similar plays. Aggression is all well-and-good, until you run into a hand.
...I'll call it now. Mizrachi's exit hand will be when he over-plays his hand.

[stevenash]

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/michael-mizrachi-cracks-kings-in-wsop-main-event-49199.htm

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Miz a big chip-leader. Would anyone give me: Field +150 (vs Grinder)?

...I don't like him. Think he dusts off chips here.
...I'm calling for more aggression vs Grinder. He will be spewing chips.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I wish Margets had gone deeper. She's good.

I really don't like Mizrachi's game. Can't be afraid vs this guy. Put him to the test.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I wish Margets had gone deeper. She's good.

I really don't like Mizrachi's game. Can't be afraid vs this guy. Put him to the test.

Chucky, not sure what your disdain towards Mizrachi is, I have always liked him personally...

I watched the last 15-20 minutes last night and he was putting them to the test and Hallaert was the only one willing to stand up to him.

He is in complete control and running the show....

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, not sure what your disdain towards Mizrachi is, I have always liked him personally...

I watched the last 15-20 minutes last night and he was putting them to the test and Hallaert was the only one willing to stand up to him.

He is in complete control and running the show....

Hi, Jake. Just my opinion on his game:
1) IQ goes up 20 points when you win (almost) all the flips.
2) I don't see much of a theoretical game in his play.
3) Hallaert was in a position to go H2H with AKo versus his JJ. Just didn't feel good about the $-jump.

I don't much sophistication to his game:
a) Someone needs to 3-bet him (w/ air) Pre-Flop.
b) Post-Flop, he's sizing value. That's not a talent.

[blankoblanco]

Chucky, not sure what your disdain towards Mizrachi is, I have always liked him personally...

I watched the last 15-20 minutes last night and he was putting them to the test and Hallaert was the only one willing to stand up to him.

He is in complete control and running the show....

Mizrachi obviously knows what he's doing, plays tournaments to get a big stack, and applies pressure when he has one.

That being said, the thing that preceded Mizrachi's 1.5 BB miracle run-up was him making an objectively bad 20 BB shove UTG+1 with AJo. That's not a play you make in the main if you have any confidence in your ability to outplay postflop, as you're only getting called by a range that beats you. Maybe he was tilted, but it was not good.

In general I think he uses a lot of huge sizing when it's just worse than smaller sizing, both practically and theoretically. There was that other hand where he had JJ and Hallaert had AK, and he 4bet from 10.5 to 40, which is just way too big of a 4bet. No other crusher in the world would go that big there in 2025. Hallaert folded the AK in large part due to ICM considerations, but in the world where he decided to jam (whether with the hand he had or because he had QQ+), Mizrachi then maybe has to fold and give away an extra 10 mill for no reason. I just dislike so many of his sizings, but of course it can work out when you just mow everyone down like this.

And then there's just the obvious fact that he's run like an absolute God ever since the AJ punt. It's gotta be like 9 all-ins in a row or something? I mean, this isn't special to Grinder - any solid pro who wasn't playing scared would be running the table if they had this same luck. That's just how tournament poker is sometimes.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

blanko, your writeup summarizes my view:
1) People wouldn't think he's so bright if he hadn't won all those All Ins.
2) He's been applying pressure. Props to him.
3) I haven't seen a strategic play from him that leaves me impressed.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6yOSXlTxC-o

Hand on the bubble. Guy hits both ends of the Straight Flush: A6(d) on a 2345(d) board.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK. Props to Mizrachi. I was proven wrong.

[blankoblanco]

OK. Props to Mizrachi. I was proven wrong.

Eh, I don't think anything you said was proven wrong at all, but it's nice that a big name won for the first time in a long time. It just felt like destiny ever since that A on the river.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Eh, I don't think anything you said was proven wrong at all, but it's nice that a big name won for the first time in a long time. It just felt like destiny ever since that A on the river.

Ya, blanko. B4 that he rivered a Flush 3x on River.

Not hating on him. Props to him on the Win. I just don't consider him to be close to being the best player out there.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A little more commentary on this. Once again, props to Mizrachi. My commentary will focus on Luck versus Skill:

1) How many suckouts did he have on the All Ins? Wow, wish I could hit rivers at that rate. He hit his key card multiple times when he was behind.

2) One key factor in Tournament poker is understanding the nature of AK. Specifically, AK(o). AK(s) is actually a much better hand:
*AK(o) is 43/57 versus JJ. People say that these hands are "flipping." 43% isn't a flip.
*AK(s) is 46/54 versus JJ. Closer to a fair fight b/c you make more flushes.
...AK has strong blockers to AA/KK. You don't expect to run into those hands too often.
...AK is a "good" hand from the aspect that it's rarely dominat-ed. Flip side is that it's not dominat-ing Ax hands that won't be in big pots.

3) Consider Hallaert's AK(o) hand where he folded to the 4-bet. I think it was an excellent Fold.
...Deeper poker analysis contemplates: REDEEMING your equity and DENYING your equity.
...AK is the type of hand where YOU normally have correct odds. But you're also playing a hand where your Opponent's Pocket Pair is a favorite against your hand. Opponent is, therefore, not getting their equity denied. They are, in fact, printing money.

Just my opinion. Mizrachi was on fumes (at 3BB). He then caught fire and doubled up multiple times. When you're running good, you look a lot smarter. Truth is that a single poker-tournament is a lot more luck than skill.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Doug Polk's review:

Miz went 7/7 on the hands Doug listed. I ran the #s. 192/1

OK, props to Miz on the 85 double-barrel bluff. Got it thru.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A few more comments:

(19:00) Miz calls with KJ(s). Fractionally too wide to call. He's getting +150 odds.

(19:40) Dunaway made some aggro-plays. SB into BB is a wide spot. But I don't like the hand-selection. T6(s) doesn't show up on my shoving range.

(21:00) Doug's calculations mirror what I said above. 10/10 on All Ins = .14%.
...Not sure why he excluded the AT vs 77 hand that he did lose vs Margets.

[Ian]

Mizrachi is on top of the poker world. He wins his 4th poker players championship and then takes down the main event. Pretty amazing. I wonder what % he had of himself?

I followed this years main event less than any other in recent years... sounds like it was a pretty good one.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi, Ian. Coverage changed this year. Used to be a good watch on ESPN w/ Lon calling it.

The idea of paying $$ to watch that event? Sorry, no thx. It's just poker.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Chucky and blanko,

I never implied that he is the best technical player but his results even before this WSOP speak loudly. He is obviously very aggressive and as you both pointed out, over aggressive at times but as you both know it's far better to be aggressive than passive. Many are scared to play pots with him especially when he has a big stack. He is really good when he has chips and can apply pressure as he did in the main event.

He has a knack for running deep in these big field tournaments. Props to him.

I will say he is a terrible interview...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky and blanko,

I never implied that he is the best technical player but his results even before this WSOP speak loudly. He is obviously very aggressive and as you both pointed out, over aggressive at times but as you both know it's far better to be aggressive than passive. Many are scared to play pots with him especially when he has a big stack. He is really good when he has chips and can apply pressure as he did in the main event.

He has a knack for running deep in these big field tournaments. Props to him.

I will say he is a terrible interview...

Salud, Jake. I didn't see anybody 3-bet Bluff him pre-flop. That's a way to weed out his mediocre holdings.

Polk did point out how good his 85 play was. No showdown-value and holding the Nut-blocker, he made a great River bet. So easy to freeze up after bluffing Turn.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Salud, Jake. I didn't see anybody 3-bet Bluff him pre-flop. That's a way to weed out his mediocre holdings.

Polk did point out how good his 85 play was. No showdown-value and holding the Nut-blocker, he made a great River bet. So easy to freeze up after bluffing Turn.

He was trying to win while the others were trying to ladder up.

I agree though, it would have made it more difficult for him if there were some playing back at him. It's history now however. From the little that I saw, Hallaert and the guy that came in 2nd were the only ones willing to play pots with him.