[cleaveland]

After examining the lines I thought the Thunder's team total of an estimated 94 looks good (game total of 192 gives us TT 98 for the Hornets and TT 94 for the Thunder).

I looked at:

Pros
No injuries for the Thunder
Thunder won their last game which gives them momentum.
The Thunder have won four straight against the Hornets which gives them confidence.
The Thunder average 103.8 points against the league.
The Thunder have averaged 98.2 points against the Hornets in their last four meetings and they've scored over 94 points in all four games.
The Thunder have scored at least 94 points in 8 straight games and they've averaged 107.3 points in the those games.

Cons
The Hornets only give up 91 points per game.
The Hornets are red hot and they just held the Spurs to 72 points.
In the two meetings between these two teams this season the Thunder only scored 95 and 97 points, dangerously close to 94.

Line movement
I usually only look at line movement of Vegas books and one book moved the line up a half while others moved it down a half, I think that's insignificant.

This is a grade B-type play for me (with grade A being something I'd call a near lock).

How's my capping?

[doublej95]

Hornets 14-31 O/U

[cleaveland]

Hornets 14-31 O/U

I don't know if that's really relevant because I'm only looking at what the Thunder will do. I mean, it could easily go under while the Thunder TT goes over, easily. I don't care about that.

[doublej95]

no its relevant pal.

[cleaveland]

no its relevant pal.

Please explain how because I don't agree.

[doublej95]

61% of Hornets games go under so that tells me a couple of things either one team is going to be low scoring or both teams will be low scoring. Now lets look at the last ten hornets games 6 teams have not scored over 94 points against them, thats 60%. Do you want to place a bet on something that has a 40% edge?

[cleaveland]

61% of Hornets games go under so that tells me a couple of things either one team is going to be low scoring or both teams will be low scoring. Now lets look at the last ten hornets games 6 teams have not scored over 94 points against them, thats 60%. Do you want to place a bet on something that has a 40% edge?

The two meetings between these two teams this season were both OKC wins 95-89 (O/U 200) and 97-92 (O/U 196).

Both of those games went under 192 or 191 (whatever the final line is) and they went under their respective game totals but OKC TT was over 94 in both. Do you see what I mean? The Hornets O/U stats are meaningless to me in this situation. That's how I see it. You're free to disagree.

[doublej95]

good luck with your play.

[cleaveland]

good luck with your play.

Thanks. Another thing I usually do is read the game conversation on ESPN and I found this interesting analysis:

"Also, these OKC Thunder will be all we can take. We match up badly against them. Westbrook is a nightmare for us. No one can really guard the guy. Him and Durant are the worst tandem matchup for the Hornets in the entire league, IMO. We need to get really physical with Durant. Can't let him get in a groove. Gotta stop Westbrook too. I see us losing by 5 or 7."

You get insight from fans who are actually unbiased and that's quite different from bettors who are almost always biased and put blinders on when it comes to defending their plays.

[emoney]

Do you think Vegas was unaware of any of this when they set the line to begin with?

[rfr3sh]

I would bet the under
I think the Thunder score around 90 pts today

[doublej95]

I would bet the under
I think the Thunder score around 90 pts today

Exactly.

[dwaechte]

Takes a lot more work than that to beat NBA lines. Sorry bud.

[doublej95]

Takes a lot more work than that to beat NBA lines. Sorry bud.

especially when you don't think the other team is relevant to the line.

[rfr3sh]

I will help you out a bit here
although season averages would suggest the line to be exactly 94 (no edge)
take a look at the recent (last 10) games each team has played

you will notice barely any difference between the actual pace and offensive efficiency of both teams
however you can notice that the hornets defensive efficiency has dropped from their average of 92 to 87-88

[THE PROFIT]

if it wins it was good capping

[cleaveland]

Takes a lot more work than that to beat NBA lines. Sorry bud.

Actually, it can be done with a lot less but anyways please give me advice about what I'm doing wrong.

[sharpcat]

Actually, it can be done with a lot less but anyways please give me advice about what I'm doing wrong.

What you are doing sounds pretty simple and requires no more than a 3rd grade education.

Have you ever heard of a legit way to make easy money with only 10 minutes of work and no education???

[ronaldo922]

good luck in your play

[cleaveland]

What you are doing sounds pretty simple and requires no more than a 3rd grade education.

Have you ever heard of a legit way to make easy money with only 10 minutes of work and no education???

Winning has nothing to do with the difficulty of the methods used. Tim Donaghy proved that by picking over 70% ATS winners based on only one point: who was reffing the game. You can't get any simpler than that.

It doesn't even take inside info like Donaghy to win based on refs alone, btw. Dark Horse, a poster on this site, proved that before when he picked game after game in the NBA playoffs just based on the refs and HIS knowledge of them and I don't even he'd call himself an expert.

Donaghy has proven to be able to pick over 70% ATS winners with no effort and no work at all, your argument is false.

I remember a guy on this forum once mentioned even easier way to win: go to betcris.com and check what teams the public is betting and choose the best game to fade the public on from that list. Yes, I'm thinking it's that easy because I've checking it recently and the majority of the most popular plays on betcris lose day in and day out. I'm pretty sure you could blindly fade those plays and a make a consistent profit. That's how easy it can be.

[cant call it]

If it wins, its good capping.

[cleaveland]

What you are doing sounds pretty simple and requires no more than a 3rd grade education.

Have you ever heard of a legit way to make easy money with only 10 minutes of work and no education???

I'll give you another example of how easy it can be to win. I came up with a system for picking MLB games and I tried it in a contest and I was able to stay in plus units over a large number of plays.

This system is as simple and mindless as it gets:

Take teams on a winning streak until they lose. That means when a team is on a minimum of a three game winning streak take them every game until they lose.

That system worked and you can do that with overs and unders too. Take a team like the Golden State Warriors who are streaky and totally rely on their offense, when they start an over streak start taking them over every game until they finally get an under.

Yes, you can win with simple mindless systems, I'm sure of it.

[sharpcat]

I'll give you another example of how easy it can be to win. I came up with a system for picking MLB games and I tried it in a contest and I was able to stay in plus units over a large number of plays.

This system is as simple and mindless as it gets:

Take teams on a winning streak until they lose. That means when a team is on a minimum of a three game winning streak take them every game until they lose.

That system worked and you can do that with overs and unders too. Take a team like the Golden State Warriors who are streaky and totally rely on their offense, when they start an over streak start taking them over every game until they finally get an under.

Yes, you can win with simple mindless systems, I'm sure of it.

So I assume you currently have no job and spend 20 minutes a day "handicapping" and are making 100k+ a year?
how else would you be so sure of this?

You should call Donald Trump and tell him he is an idiot and that you make more money per hour than he does

[bbenson011]

i like the rationale beyond your play and will be on it myself BOL

[cleaveland]

So I assume you currently have no job and spend 20 minutes a day "handicapping" and are making 100k+ a year?
how else would you be so sure of this?

You should call Donald Trump and tell him he is an idiot and that you make more money per hour than he does

Maybe some day, I guess I won't be discussing handicapping on this "handicapping forum" anymore because I didn't get any really good constructive criticism.

I've never taken betting that seriously and I have virtually no self control when betting now for the first time I'm working through it. Thanks for letting me see there's no point in trying to have a serious handicapping discussion here. I won't post a thread like this on this site again.

[Dirty Sanchez]

After watching the Billy Walters special on 60 Minutes....I've lessoned my weight on line movement

[doublej95]

Maybe some day, I guess I won't be discussing handicapping on this "handicapping forum" anymore because I didn't get any really good constructive criticism.

I've never taken betting that seriously and I have virtually no self control when betting now for the first time I'm working through it. Thanks for letting me see there's no point in trying to have a serious handicapping discussion here. I won't post a thread like this on this site again.

hey kid, i offered advise about your capping when you asked if it was any good. I made one suggestion that I thought you should take into consideration and you became very defensive about it. It seemed you never really wanted any advice and I wished you on your way and wondered why you even asked for advise to start with.

[Flight]

You've got a good start... but it needs more.

-You underestimate the opponent's defense (your estimate should also include the opponent's offense and even the primary team's defense! all 4 contribute in someway)
-Player by player analysis
-Need more relevant stats (categories) and more data (samples, "2 times this season" "5 times between these teams" etc is not enough, I don't mean go back more than this season as I think old data is useless applied today, I mean look at every game the team has played this season and look at every game the opponent played this season)
-Need to come up with your own projection, independent of the line. Seems like you looked at the line first and then reverse engineered your answer.
-Game total closed at 190.5, 1.5 points below the number you based your analysis on, so the line movement did not agree. Try and figure out why.

Good luck. The posters are critical, but that is the only way to improve. It does take work, many hours in front of computer. Expect to lose if you don't work, and expect negative criticism from peers.

[PorkChop]

There is no such thing as "good capping," i don't care how much research one does on a game, when it comes down to it. It's 50/50, and its just a guess.

[rfr3sh]

I would bet the under
I think the Thunder score around 90 pts today

[JOHON8]

This is what you call a sharp discussion thread. We need more of this in this forum and less of "YOU WANT A WINNER? HERE IT IS A LOCK BABY PUT YOUR WHOLE HOUSE ON IT" kind of threads made by nbaprofosor, etc...

[LLXC]

There is no such thing as "good capping," i don't care how much research one does on a game, when it comes down to it. It's 50/50, and its just a guess.

You should stop wagering on sports then.

[LLXC]

Maybe some day, I guess I won't be discussing handicapping on this "handicapping forum" anymore because I didn't get any really good constructive criticism.

I've never taken betting that seriously and I have virtually no self control when betting now for the first time I'm working through it. Thanks for letting me see there's no point in trying to have a serious handicapping discussion here. I won't post a thread like this on this site again.

There was a lot of good info...sigh...

[LLXC]

This is what you call a sharp discussion thread. We need more of this in this forum and less of "YOU WANT A WINNER? HERE IT IS A LOCK BABY PUT YOUR WHOLE HOUSE ON IT" kind of threads made by nbaprofosor, etc...

Definitely.

The funny thing is the person who started the thread didn't think so...

[doublej95]

well I know of two people that told him watch for the under. I never understood why he said the Hornets was not relevant there is two teams on the court, not one.