Fate behind the plate
Like most sports, baseball teams tend to win more games at home than on the road.
Of course, there are plenty of advantages to playing at home – players are familiar with the ballpark, they get fan support, and they enjoy all the comforts of being at home.
Another factor that probably doesn’t get enough credit is umpiring. In theory, umpires are supposed to be unbiased and impartial, regardless of where they are and who is playing. In practice, that’s rarely the case.
Whether it’s conscious or subconscious, some umpires are biased towards the home team. A good example of this took place during the recent World Baseball Classic.
During that tournament, Team USA played on home turf and got several favorable calls from American umps; calls which had a direct effect on the outcome of the game.
For instance, in the opening game of the second round, Japan’s Tsuyoshi Nishioka tagged up on a fly ball and ran home in the eighth inning. Nishioka was initially ruled safe by the second base umpire and Japan appeared to take a 4-3 lead.
But Team USA manager Buck Martinez appealed the ruling, claiming Nishioka left third base early. American home plate ump Bob Davidson subsequently overruled the initial call and called Nishioka out. The U.S. went on to win the game 4-3.
Then in a game between the U.S. and Mexico, Davidson made a controversial call in favor of Team USA while acting as the first base umpire. In that case, a Mexican hitter had belted a homer off the foul pole.
However, Davidson ruled that the ball remained in play and the hitter was forced to settle for a double. Despite the favorable ruling, the U.S. lost to Mexico 2-1 and was eliminated from the tournament.
Because of his seemingly biased calls, Davidson earned the nickname the "Patriotic Ump" by the foreign press.
Now that the baseball regular season has started, some of the 68 major league umpires will undoubtedly show favoritism to the home team.
On Tuesday, for instance, the defending World Series champion Chicago White Sox will be playing their second game of the year against the Cleveland Indians (2:05 p.m. ET).
The umpire scheduled to call that game is Terry Craft, a 14-year veteran of the big leagues. Last year, it seemed that Craft was a big fan of the home team. When he donned the mask the home team went 18-9, a winning percentage of 67 percent.
Umpires may be partial to the home team in order deflect attention or win favor with the hometown crowd. On the flipside, there may be umpires who crave attention, even if it’s negative. Thus, there may be umps who show favoritism to road teams.
One could argue that Ed Rapuano was partial to the road team last season. When Rapuano was behind the plate last season, the road team went 22-14, a winning percentage of 61 percent.
Another factor to consider when looking at umpires is their strike percentage. Some umps clearly have tighter strike zones (call fewer strikes), whereas others have wider zones (call more strikes).
Generally, if an ump calls fewer strikes, pitchers will get into more jams and scores will be higher. Thus, games will tend to go OVER the posted totals.
On the other hand, if an ump calls more strikes, pitchers will have more strikeouts and scores will be lower. Thus, games will tend to fall UNDER the posted totals.
A good example of an ump who had a wide strike zone last season was Doug Eddings. In what was his sixth year in the majors, Eddings called 66 percent of the pitches he saw as strikes, one of the highest percentages in MLB.
Not surprisingly, many of his games were low scoring – only 11 of 32 games (34.4 percent) went OVER last year.
Conversely, Mike Dimuro had one of the tighter strike zones in the majors. Dimuro called only 62.2 percent of the pitches he saw as strikes. As one might expect, many of the games Dimuro called were high scoring – of the 29 games he umpired, 20 went OVER the posted total (69 percent).
Thus, while handicapping baseball games, it makes sense to find out which umpires are behind the plate and research their statistics. There are numerous websites that provide this sort of information.
Keep in mind that it’s nearly impossible to know well in advance who is umpiring the first game of a new series since MLB does not release this information until game day. (Umpire assignments typically become public about 10 to 20 minutes before game time.)
However, once the umpires for the first game of a series are announced, the rest of the umpires become apparent since the umps almost always rotate clockwise.
In other words, in the second game of a series, the home plate ump goes to third, and the first plate ump dons the home plate mask.
Like most sports, baseball teams tend to win more games at home than on the road.
Of course, there are plenty of advantages to playing at home – players are familiar with the ballpark, they get fan support, and they enjoy all the comforts of being at home.
Another factor that probably doesn’t get enough credit is umpiring. In theory, umpires are supposed to be unbiased and impartial, regardless of where they are and who is playing. In practice, that’s rarely the case.
Whether it’s conscious or subconscious, some umpires are biased towards the home team. A good example of this took place during the recent World Baseball Classic.
During that tournament, Team USA played on home turf and got several favorable calls from American umps; calls which had a direct effect on the outcome of the game.
For instance, in the opening game of the second round, Japan’s Tsuyoshi Nishioka tagged up on a fly ball and ran home in the eighth inning. Nishioka was initially ruled safe by the second base umpire and Japan appeared to take a 4-3 lead.
But Team USA manager Buck Martinez appealed the ruling, claiming Nishioka left third base early. American home plate ump Bob Davidson subsequently overruled the initial call and called Nishioka out. The U.S. went on to win the game 4-3.
Then in a game between the U.S. and Mexico, Davidson made a controversial call in favor of Team USA while acting as the first base umpire. In that case, a Mexican hitter had belted a homer off the foul pole.
However, Davidson ruled that the ball remained in play and the hitter was forced to settle for a double. Despite the favorable ruling, the U.S. lost to Mexico 2-1 and was eliminated from the tournament.
Because of his seemingly biased calls, Davidson earned the nickname the "Patriotic Ump" by the foreign press.
Now that the baseball regular season has started, some of the 68 major league umpires will undoubtedly show favoritism to the home team.
On Tuesday, for instance, the defending World Series champion Chicago White Sox will be playing their second game of the year against the Cleveland Indians (2:05 p.m. ET).
The umpire scheduled to call that game is Terry Craft, a 14-year veteran of the big leagues. Last year, it seemed that Craft was a big fan of the home team. When he donned the mask the home team went 18-9, a winning percentage of 67 percent.
Umpires may be partial to the home team in order deflect attention or win favor with the hometown crowd. On the flipside, there may be umpires who crave attention, even if it’s negative. Thus, there may be umps who show favoritism to road teams.
One could argue that Ed Rapuano was partial to the road team last season. When Rapuano was behind the plate last season, the road team went 22-14, a winning percentage of 61 percent.
Another factor to consider when looking at umpires is their strike percentage. Some umps clearly have tighter strike zones (call fewer strikes), whereas others have wider zones (call more strikes).
Generally, if an ump calls fewer strikes, pitchers will get into more jams and scores will be higher. Thus, games will tend to go OVER the posted totals.
On the other hand, if an ump calls more strikes, pitchers will have more strikeouts and scores will be lower. Thus, games will tend to fall UNDER the posted totals.
A good example of an ump who had a wide strike zone last season was Doug Eddings. In what was his sixth year in the majors, Eddings called 66 percent of the pitches he saw as strikes, one of the highest percentages in MLB.
Not surprisingly, many of his games were low scoring – only 11 of 32 games (34.4 percent) went OVER last year.
Conversely, Mike Dimuro had one of the tighter strike zones in the majors. Dimuro called only 62.2 percent of the pitches he saw as strikes. As one might expect, many of the games Dimuro called were high scoring – of the 29 games he umpired, 20 went OVER the posted total (69 percent).
Thus, while handicapping baseball games, it makes sense to find out which umpires are behind the plate and research their statistics. There are numerous websites that provide this sort of information.
Keep in mind that it’s nearly impossible to know well in advance who is umpiring the first game of a new series since MLB does not release this information until game day. (Umpire assignments typically become public about 10 to 20 minutes before game time.)
However, once the umpires for the first game of a series are announced, the rest of the umpires become apparent since the umps almost always rotate clockwise.
In other words, in the second game of a series, the home plate ump goes to third, and the first plate ump dons the home plate mask.