How does this workout at the books web sights? When is it a goo d idea and when is it not good? Or any web sights better for do this at?
Thank you,
Paul
Thank you,
Paul
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I just use Pinnacle's drop down menu. I usually sell points to get a better line. Note, I only sell points when I feel real strong about a game.Comment -
I sell points sometimes with the drop down menu...Comment -
Thank you for the answer s. This is probaly most for more experience gamblers. Do you get more for sale points at some sights than other sights?
PaulComment -
Just remember that the lower the total (or expected score) the more valuable the points. In a game like West Virginia/Southern Illinois this weekend, selling points wouldn't be a great idea, but in a game like UCONN/Albany, it would make more sense.Comment -
pinny is the only site I play with where I can sell points...Comment -
There's no question that this is indeed a factor. Its theoretical justification is that due to the greater sparsity of likely outcomes for "low" totals as opposed to "high", there's also a greater liikelihood of realizing any given MOV under a "low" total scneario. And indeed, this certainly has a large imapct in baseball. In basketball, however, it gets a little more complicated.Originally posted by Razz
If you look at NCAA Basketball spreads over the past 8 or 9 years and partition the data set into a "high" total subset and a "low" total subset what you find is that while for most spreads push probabilities when you move from the "high" total subset to the "low" do increase (as predicted by theory), there are a few spread clusters (most notable of which may be the 3-4-5 spread cluster) where figure probabilities actually decrease. Assuming that this isn't a data anomaly (and the texture of the probability differences surrounding the clusters suggest that indeed it isn't), this suggests that there exists some other factor, which for certain spread groups and as a function of expected total score, exerts an impact on push probabilities opposite to that of sparsity. (And of course it stands to reason that for other spread groups the factor's effect is in the same direction as that of sparsity.)
The macro explanation for this theoretical factor is certainly up for debate. I do have my own hypothesis about it but I'd be interested in seeing if anyone else has any thoughts before I poison the well with my own bombastic flavor of expression.Comment -
When I have infatuation for a game the 1st thing I envision is Pinnacle and
selling points. Getting +115 or so on a game where you assume the line is
inaccurate, is without question profitable and lucrative for a professional
and skillful handicapper.
With that being said the only time I would recommend selling points
is if you are infatuated with a particular game or the spread is sizable
i.e -10 or more. Ganchrow great work my friend! Who is going to
be the win the NCAA tourney this year?Comment -
This is all good to read for a new comer like me. Thank you.
PaulComment -
Here are a few links you might want to look at, I'm pretty new to this sports stuff, but basically it looks like once you have a good idea of the push frequency for each number (you'd do well to automate this by writing a program to analyze past score data or getting someone to do it for you), you should be able to figure out any change in EV buying on or off of a number would create.
Hope this helps, I'm finding that there are many interesting things to this sports betting stuff, handicapping (assuming it can be done), money management, and line shopping among others.
Hope this helps!
BryanComment
