One of the beauties of baseball is that it is an ever changing puzzle of pieces with countless combination's on a daily basis. This is what gives us the hope that the books can't possibly be right about every game, on every day of the long summer. On Tuesday, I believe they have completely whiffed on a line and made the wrong team the favorite.
The World Series Champion Giants will play the Adrian Gonzalez-less Padres on Tuesday at 6:35 PM Eastern. One of the Giants best young pitchers, Madison Bumgarner, will start opposite Aaron Harang who had a 5.32 era last season. The Giants opened as -118 favorites and the line is moving in their favor as it has already been bumped up to -127 as I write this. Seems like that makes sense, right? They are the champs with the better pitcher going, right? The Padres will struggle to score runs without their superstar slugger from last year, right? I don't think so...
I haven't seen the lineups yet so I am speculating a bit here.. If I am wrong it won't be the first time but I think the Padres lineup will look something like this..
1.Bartlett
2.Hudson
3.Cantu
4.Ludwick
5.Headley
6.Hundley
7.Maybin
8.Denorfia/Venable
Doesn't look like murderers row, but what I see is a lineup full of guys that should see the ball nicely coming from the left handed Bumgarners slinging motion. I can't really explain it in words but matchups are everything in baseball. It is essentially a series of individual matchups and the Padres should have 4-5 heavily in their favor against Madison.
The Giants bullpen became famous during the world series mainly because of Brian Wilson and his beard, well he isn't active right now and his little sidekick Romo had to learn two new pitches in the off season because everyone knows you need more than one pitch (swinging slider) to be good.(unless your Rivera) What I'm really trying to say is the Giants pen isn't very dominating right now... Meanwhile, the Padres have one of the best pens in Baseball lead by closer H.Bell.. Adams,Gregerson, and Qualls are all solid arms that are rested and ready to go Tuesday. Advantage:Padres
As you probably know, Aaron Harang has spent the last few seasons in Cincy which is a Hitters park, especially for HR hitters.. This didn't fit Harang's style which is something I never understood. Harang is a strikeout/flyball pitcher, why in the fukk would you ever want him in Cincy?? He would even change his natural style to try and get more groundballs.. On the flipside, San Diego's Petco Park, where flyballs egual outs, seems to have been built for guys like Aaron Harang. He should be able to be himself here, and just let it go.. I honestly think this guy can have a "bad" year and have an ERA under 4 pitching in this park. So what looks like a pitching edge for the Giants on paper, when I look at it closer, I think it's the Padres, not the Giants, who have a slight advantage pitching for Tuesdays game.
Bruce Bochy isn't going to throw Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff in the outfield with all that ground to cover... is he? Is he that dumb? They wont hit any HR's tomorrow at Petco, and we all know they won't be running down any flyballs...
When Bumgarner gets lifted, the Padres will have Hawpe and Venable ready to fill in when Romo comes in..
It's only one baseball game and anything can happen, but lets just say I like the Padres Chances!!
Padres +122
The World Series Champion Giants will play the Adrian Gonzalez-less Padres on Tuesday at 6:35 PM Eastern. One of the Giants best young pitchers, Madison Bumgarner, will start opposite Aaron Harang who had a 5.32 era last season. The Giants opened as -118 favorites and the line is moving in their favor as it has already been bumped up to -127 as I write this. Seems like that makes sense, right? They are the champs with the better pitcher going, right? The Padres will struggle to score runs without their superstar slugger from last year, right? I don't think so...
I haven't seen the lineups yet so I am speculating a bit here.. If I am wrong it won't be the first time but I think the Padres lineup will look something like this..
1.Bartlett
2.Hudson
3.Cantu
4.Ludwick
5.Headley
6.Hundley
7.Maybin
8.Denorfia/Venable
Doesn't look like murderers row, but what I see is a lineup full of guys that should see the ball nicely coming from the left handed Bumgarners slinging motion. I can't really explain it in words but matchups are everything in baseball. It is essentially a series of individual matchups and the Padres should have 4-5 heavily in their favor against Madison.
The Giants bullpen became famous during the world series mainly because of Brian Wilson and his beard, well he isn't active right now and his little sidekick Romo had to learn two new pitches in the off season because everyone knows you need more than one pitch (swinging slider) to be good.(unless your Rivera) What I'm really trying to say is the Giants pen isn't very dominating right now... Meanwhile, the Padres have one of the best pens in Baseball lead by closer H.Bell.. Adams,Gregerson, and Qualls are all solid arms that are rested and ready to go Tuesday. Advantage:Padres
As you probably know, Aaron Harang has spent the last few seasons in Cincy which is a Hitters park, especially for HR hitters.. This didn't fit Harang's style which is something I never understood. Harang is a strikeout/flyball pitcher, why in the fukk would you ever want him in Cincy?? He would even change his natural style to try and get more groundballs.. On the flipside, San Diego's Petco Park, where flyballs egual outs, seems to have been built for guys like Aaron Harang. He should be able to be himself here, and just let it go.. I honestly think this guy can have a "bad" year and have an ERA under 4 pitching in this park. So what looks like a pitching edge for the Giants on paper, when I look at it closer, I think it's the Padres, not the Giants, who have a slight advantage pitching for Tuesdays game.
Bruce Bochy isn't going to throw Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff in the outfield with all that ground to cover... is he? Is he that dumb? They wont hit any HR's tomorrow at Petco, and we all know they won't be running down any flyballs...
When Bumgarner gets lifted, the Padres will have Hawpe and Venable ready to fill in when Romo comes in..
It's only one baseball game and anything can happen, but lets just say I like the Padres Chances!!
Padres +122
Go padres! Bum is already out of the game in the 4th, HA!
Go padres!
