Are bettors psychologically programmed to bet on the favorite?

**phillybadboy** · 03-20-11, 04:46 PM

faves win 50% of time

**THE PROFIT** · 03-20-11, 04:55 PM

yes, people want to bet on the favorites, because they are gonna win the game, and people want a winner

**aca** · 03-20-11, 05:01 PM

I ageee!

**SportsMushroom** · 03-20-11, 05:06 PM

it seems that on occassions, line setters favor one team with the purpose of drawing money on that team

**pavyracer** · 03-20-11, 05:27 PM

Here is my thinking..When a line is between -5 and +5 I treat the teams as equal without looking at lines. I do my capping and then place the bet on the ML for dog and spread on the favorite. But it doesn't sway my pick if the team I like is the dog.

**Chandler** · 03-20-11, 05:27 PM

linesmakers will shade the line for big games, like national tv games, primetime games ect.

especially when its a big public team with many fans and alumni squares with deep pockets.

Yankess
bosox
duke b-ball
lakers
dallas cowboys
Ohio st. football
Texas football ect.

the problem is, if you put a line out there like lakers -12.5 and you know the true no vig line might indeed be -10.5 and you try to trap the public square homers.

you might get 1000 guys betting 110-100 on lakers -12.5

but it only takes 4 or 5 sharp guys betting 10k on the 12.5 to bury you.

sorry the market usually ends up being efficient and that line will go down to balance the action out.

somtimes a book does take a strong and opinionated position though. and tries to WIN

**alukk** · 03-20-11, 05:39 PM

Yes.

**robmpink** · 03-20-11, 05:47 PM

yes and the over.

**RockBottom** · 03-20-11, 06:14 PM

Who wants to bet on the lesser team? The favorite will have the public assume they are better.

**k13** · 03-20-11, 06:16 PM

Yes, they might like Arizona over Duke now.

**big joe 1212** · 03-20-11, 06:18 PM

Bodog sure thinks so!

**Karayilan9** · 03-20-11, 06:24 PM

Nothing wrong with betting on favorites don't understand the hang up over it, betting dogs or favs has nothing to do with being sharp.

**SportsMushroom** · 03-20-11, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Nothing wrong with betting on favorites don't understand the hang up over it, betting dogs or favs has nothing to do with being sharp.

there is nothing wrong with betting a fav when it is properly and objectively capped

what i am asking is if some bettors tend to subconsiously have a preference in betting the fav, and so are sometimes not able to cap the game objectively

and if the lines makers try to take advantage of this fact

**FourLengthsClear** · 03-20-11, 07:02 PM

Yes and yes.
Lines in US sports are shaded slightly towards the favourite but not by enough to make blindly betting underdogs viable.

**FourLengthsClear** · 03-20-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

faves win 50% of time

No they don't.

**tonycarr** · 03-20-11, 07:08 PM

from what Ive seen you look for a game that you feel the line is off 1 way or the other and you bet it. Dont worry about if the line is wrong fav or dog worry about how far off. Make your plays accordingly.

**str** · 03-20-11, 07:11 PM

Yes and yes.