Why would books give out info to help you beat them?

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  • cleaveland
    SBR MVP
    • 04-04-10
    • 1559

    #1
    Why would books give out info to help you beat them?
    I saw this question asked yesterday in relation to the "most wagered" lists. I think the answer to the question is very counter-intuitive. The books are happy to help you beat them IF...

    you help them balance their books in the process. I think the books are often desperate to get balanced action on the "most wagered" plays so if you're fading those plays and winning you're actually helping the books despite the fact that you're winning, imho.

    Anyone agree/disagree with that?
  • spankie
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-10-11
    • 9992

    #2
    they give the info out cuz they want u to think like 90% of the egg heads that use the information and look for "trends".
    Comment
    • Jaug
      SBR MVP
      • 01-11-09
      • 3087

      #3
      I mean any fool can put up the market line and juice it up. In that case there is no such thing as beeting a bookie, you just get lucky.
      Comment
      • dfberger23
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 11-08-10
        • 5069

        #4
        Comment
        • Chimneyfish
          SBR MVP
          • 09-30-10
          • 1217

          #5
          The books can't really be "beat" for the most part anyway. The more people wager on a game the more money they make, and the more info they give on the games the more it will encourage people to bet it thinking they have an inside angle. It's kind of like how casinos are eager to give out free blackjack strategy cards, which would seem to be counterintuitive. It's because getting people at the tables is much more profitable than anything they can do once they're playing.
          Comment
          • jjgold
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-20-05
            • 388179

            #6
            your not beating books unless maybe you bet after 1st qtr of a game

            Books will give you all the info you want

            They want you to bet
            Comment
            • Dirty Sanchez
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-01-10
              • 16031

              #7
              Originally posted by cleaveland
              I saw this question asked yesterday in relation to the "most wagered" lists. I think the answer to the question is very counter-intuitive. The books are happy to help you beat them IF...

              you help them balance their books in the process. I think the books are often desperate to get balanced action on the "most wagered" plays so if you're fading those plays and winning you're actually helping the books despite the fact that you're winning, imho.

              Anyone agree/disagree with that?
              First off...using the word counter-intuitive is a word that most here won't understand, so dumb it down a little. Second, How do you know the "info" you're getting is something you can trust as being accurate? Maybe the dude is giving you bogus info to take your money
              Comment
              • cleaveland
                SBR MVP
                • 04-04-10
                • 1559

                #8
                Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez
                First off...using the word counter-intuitive is a word that most here won't understand, so dumb it down a little. Second, How do you know the "info" you're getting is something you can trust as being accurate? Maybe the dude is giving you bogus info to take your money
                The thread I'm referring to was about vegasinsider, they've been around forever, I think they're as legit as they come. Also, I trust betcris' "most wagered" numbers because they're also as legit as they come.
                Comment
                • ThaddeusB
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-10-10
                  • 8874

                  #9
                  I'm sure that just as many people use the wagering percentages to bet the same way as "everyone else" as use it to fade "everyone else."
                  Comment
                  • d2bets
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 08-10-05
                    • 39995

                    #10
                    What kind of "info" are you talking about?
                    Comment
                    • rm18
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 09-20-05
                      • 22291

                      #11
                      just basically making it easier for potential bettors to see what side the sharp money is on, but they think it is a tool to get more action I guess it works hard to say books are not that smart though sometimes.
                      Comment
                      • sneak-a-peak
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-07-09
                        • 1373

                        #12
                        Books want the average joe or "square" to chase.

                        When it comes to "gambling" its human nature to feel the need to start doubling down after a bad streak to make up for losses and most of us know the ending to that story and the books do too.

                        Im sure there has been many victims of chasing and going bust since the beginning of time and thats how the books stay in biz.

                        The books will ALWAYS win.

                        Think about this- if every sports bettor was making serious money month in and month out there would be no money that the books would be profiting right?

                        Well then the reputable books (A+ ones for instance) would have to start going with -115 or -120 on both sides and making the odds harder on the players til the winners stop winning- so ya the books can never lose.

                        Yes, that scenario would make exchanges even much more popular than now but there would still have to be losers in the exchanges for the winners to get down what they desire to.
                        Comment
                        • Borat38
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-15-10
                          • 177

                          #13
                          A win that seemed to have come from a "calculated decision" (but was really just dumb luck) inspires squares to bet even more or more frequently next time. That's good business in the long term.
                          Comment
                          • Degenerate
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 06-25-07
                            • 159

                            #14
                            They do it to give people a false sense of confidence and a reason to make a bet.
                            Comment
                            • Chimneyfish
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-30-10
                              • 1217

                              #15
                              Originally posted by d2bets
                              What kind of "info" are you talking about?
                              I think he's talking about looking at the percentages that show which side the majority of the money is coming in on and then just betting the opposite.

                              SBR Reverse-Squarism at its finest.
                              Comment
                              • mtneer1212
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-22-08
                                • 4993

                                #16
                                The info is priced into the lines...... it doesn't matter.
                                Comment
                                • underthe total
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 05-29-10
                                  • 1487

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Chimneyfish
                                  I think he's talking about looking at the percentages that show which side the majority of the money is coming in on and then just betting the opposite. SBR Reverse-Squarism at its finest.
                                  that is not a word, and even if you are intending to make a word and a meaning, its wrong. i am sorry. i#91 am not trying to bash you or whoever else used it.

                                  sqaure is a term related to how someone bets.

                                  hey this is #91 give me notre dame for 100, and parlay them with \over in that game.

                                  a sqaure would bet -5 when the line is really -3.
                                  Comment
                                  • TRE1968
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 08-09-09
                                    • 425

                                    #18
                                    show me anybody that has beat them with this info
                                    Comment
                                    • WeinketoWarrick
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-30-09
                                      • 1698

                                      #19
                                      books don't give out info to help you...
                                      Comment
                                      • BettingGeek
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 10-07-10
                                        • 3555

                                        #20
                                        they want you to believe that you could "beat" them. Hence, you will bet more, bet big. You already know what's gonn' happen.
                                        Comment
                                        • Chimneyfish
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-30-10
                                          • 1217

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by underthe total
                                          that is not a word
                                          You don't say?
                                          Comment
                                          • underthe total
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 05-29-10
                                            • 1487

                                            #22
                                            chimney see other post
                                            Comment
                                            • mminkovski
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-22-07
                                              • 1077

                                              #23
                                              Books never like when you beat them, never. I always had problems when winning too much.
                                              Comment
                                              • Dark Horse
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-14-05
                                                • 13764

                                                #24
                                                The quality of the information books give out is not enough to beat them. That makes the information useful to draw people in.
                                                Comment
                                                • cleaveland
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-04-10
                                                  • 1559

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Dark Horse
                                                  The quality of the information books give out is not enough to beat them. That makes the information useful to draw people in.
                                                  Yeah, they never include totals or money lines in the "most wagered" for basketball, I think that's an example of what you mean.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Igetp2s
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-21-07
                                                    • 1046

                                                    #26
                                                    The number of bets on a given side is meaningless. It is the dollar volume that is more important.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • PD77
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                      • 2380

                                                      #27
                                                      The information you get from the books is usually sportsticker garbage that is widely available to the public and woefully outdated. I do find the wagaering statistics that are provided by the book interesting at times but I dont trust them. The valuable information isnt released to the general public until after the game has started.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • notsosharp
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 10-25-10
                                                        • 799

                                                        #28
                                                        because nobody is 100%. the very best are lucky to be at 55%.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • poochiecollins
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-27-09
                                                          • 1782

                                                          #29
                                                          The information given may not actually be predictive, the sample size may be too small, the information presented may be biased, and/or the information is false.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mikejamm
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-24-09
                                                            • 11045

                                                            #30
                                                            Just read the information and "bet" the exact opposite!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • sapidoc
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-25-10
                                                              • 1273

                                                              #31
                                                              Completely agree with you OP. However there's a lot more going on.

                                                              1) Most-wagered lists are % of bets, not % of money. Doesn't matter if 99% on one side if the 1% guy bets $1 Million on the game. There's not enough information given out to let you know the % of money. If you have that information (% of money), please provide the link.

                                                              2) You could also argue that the books are better than you at setting lines (they are). So while you will win and lose in accordance with variance, they will nail you on 50% long run and you will end up paying the juice. It's way worse than this because you are not good at bankroll management. You bet more than you have and can't accept real variance because of it. They know this. The key is just getting you to bet.

                                                              3) When they are not better than you at setting the lines, there's usually a reason and more often than not they are raking the transfer of stupid$ to your$. Be happy if you fall into this category. You are a rare breed.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • yisman
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 09-01-08
                                                                • 75682

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Chimneyfish
                                                                The books can't really be "beat" for the most part anyway. The more people wager on a game the more money they make, and the more info they give on the games the more it will encourage people to bet it thinking they have an inside angle. It's kind of like how casinos are eager to give out free blackjack strategy cards, which would seem to be counterintuitive. It's because getting people at the tables is much more profitable than anything they can do once they're playing.
                                                                This is exactly right, and especially true with blackjack. The more that play blackjack, the more the casino wins, regardless of how many players use perfect strategy.
                                                                [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                                [/quote]

                                                                [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Monte
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-21-10
                                                                  • 2056

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The best Info you can get is to compare their line to Pinny, MB, Betfair...etc.
                                                                  Everything else is hokus pokus, they know that, and you should know it too btw.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Legions36
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-17-10
                                                                    • 3032

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Just use all the damn books and that info crap is garbage. get what u can from the books, use multiple books,get the best line,use the exchange,thats the best info u can get, so hard to beat them with 1 book.
                                                                    Comment
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