IND Colts +1400 to win 2011 Super Bowl

**Jonah** · 02-08-11, 12:55 PM

You mean the Cavs? Truly the Cavs of the NFL. I wish Peyton would pull a Lebron on them and leave so we can see an 0-18 team. Getting sick of this organization. How bout cutting Bob Sanders for starters?

**Dad** · 02-08-11, 01:02 PM

Should be a good bet to scalp come playoff time next year.

**shaunovery** · 02-08-11, 01:10 PM

Don't fancy them much maybe 25/1 chance in my book manning is there team with Houston to get better can't fancy the colts team to watch is 49 ers lions both to get better nxt yr

**Muddy** · 02-08-11, 01:28 PM

Has an NFL team ever been in a superbowl hosted at their home stadium?

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 01:37 PM

I would think the odds for the Colts would be more Juicy.

**Dad** · 02-08-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by Muddy

Has an NFL team ever been in a superbowl hosted at their home stadium?

No, not yet.

**big0mar** · 02-08-11, 01:40 PM

Only teams with a real chance at a SB next year:

Pats
Colts
Pack
Saints
Chargers
Steelers

Nobody else has good enough play from QB position. Could see a team like NYG make it, but Eli Manning would have to get very lucky. Of course someone like Sanchez or Ryan could jump to elite level of QBs, but that is not likely.

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 01:42 PM

that is the thing about the NFL

way more teams that "NO ONE" thinks has a chance, can easily get to the SB.

**SamsNCharge99** · 02-08-11, 01:43 PM

don't like futures this early

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 01:45 PM

the nfl is hard enough to pick head to head, week to week. on coin flips

but people think it is easy to pick winners before drafts, retire announcements, salary dumps ect.

give me odds on there being a real nfl season vs Colts winning the Super Bowl in feb 2012

I'd say there is full season

**Power Play** · 02-08-11, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by Jonah

You mean the Cavs? Truly the Cavs of the NFL. I wish Peyton would pull a Lebron on them and leave so we can see an 0-18 team. Getting sick of this organization. How bout cutting Bob Sanders for starters?

Funny but partially true. Without Peyton they'll miss the playoffs every year; hard to see them winning even 2 games without Peyton this year.

**big0mar** · 02-08-11, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Chandler

the nfl is hard enough to pick head to head, week to week. on coin flips

but people think it is easy to pick winners before drafts, retire announcements, salary dumps ect.

give me odds on there being a real nfl season vs Colts winning the Super Bowl in feb 2012

I'd say there is full season

Unless Manning retires its irrelevant.

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 02:02 PM

or Manning gets hurt

in case you haven't noticed, but AFC playoff bids are tighter than ever

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 02:03 PM

anywho, what book is offering this?

no need to tie your money up that long

I know I got bears +1700 and GB +1200 at the end of the regular season

**BadBeatBodog** · 02-08-11, 02:08 PM

This is heavily negative EG

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 02:10 PM

EG? expected Gain?

I think we prefer EV here

but its debatable

**ebbearsfb1** · 02-08-11, 02:11 PM

Too early to do it anyway.. what happens if there is a lock out? What happens if peyton chokes on an oreo and is out?

**BadBeatBodog** · 02-08-11, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Chandler

EG? expected Gain?

I think we prefer EV here

but its debatable

It's expected growth. EV vs. EG is growth vs. value and when we're talking about futures bets we are definitely concerned with EG. I will quote a Ganchrow post, for obvious reasons:

"The fundamental issue with bets such as these is that, despite being positive EV, placing them is an excellent way to go broke. The apparent contradiction is easily reconciled. If you were to repeat this bet once in each of a gigantically huge number of parallel universes, in nearly all of the universes you’d lose your bet, but in a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of those universes you’d have win the bet and that win quantity would make up for all the losses plus an additional 10% of the amount risked.

The fact is that most people just aren’t willing to live through billions of trillions worth of bets just to have a vanishingly minuscule probability of winning a huge odds bet once. So while the bet may have positive expected value, the expected outcome is for your bankroll to shrink by $10,000 each time the bet’s made. If your bankroll were $1,000,000 and you made the bet 100 times, you could expect to be broke after the 100th bet (even though your expected value would be 10% × $1,000,000 = +$100,000)."

Tying up the money when it can be used in other ways is foolish, especially since you will most likely be able to find similar odds much closer to the actual event, as other posters in here have said.

**big0mar** · 02-08-11, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by Chandler

or Manning gets hurt

in case you haven't noticed, but AFC playoff bids are tighter than ever

When has Manning ever gotten hurt?

**big0mar** · 02-08-11, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by BadBeatBodog

It's expected growth. EV vs. EG is growth vs. value and when we're talking about futures bets we are definitely concerned with EG. I will quote a Ganchrow post, for obvious reasons:

"The fundamental issue with bets such as these is that, despite being positive EV, placing them is an excellent way to go broke. The apparent contradiction is easily reconciled. If you were to repeat this bet once in each of a gigantically huge number of parallel universes, in nearly all of the universes you’d lose your bet, but in a tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of those universes you’d have win the bet and that win quantity would make up for all the losses plus an additional 10% of the amount risked.

The fact is that most people just aren’t willing to live through billions of trillions worth of bets just to have a vanishingly minuscule probability of winning a huge odds bet once. So while the bet may have positive expected value, the expected outcome is for your bankroll to shrink by $10,000 each time the bet’s made. If your bankroll were $1,000,000 and you made the bet 100 times, you could expect to be broke after the 100th bet (even though your expected value would be 10% × $1,000,000 = +$100,000)."

Tying up the money when it can be used in other ways is foolish, especially since you will most likely be able to find similar odds much closer to the actual event, as other posters in here have said.

How minuscule is the probability and how what percentage of my bankroll is on it?

**Chandler** · 02-08-11, 02:55 PM

good point.

manning will never get hurt. he's not more susceptible to injury this year vs any other younger year he played. or any more susceptible to injury vs any other game 1 qb this year right?

anywho, what book are you placing these bets at again?

**big0mar** · 02-08-11, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Chandler

good point.

manning will never get hurt. he's not more susceptible to injury this year vs any other younger year he played. or any more susceptible to injury vs any other game 1 qb this year right?

Manning isn't susceptible to injury, because he gets rid of the ball when he needs to and doesn't take many hits.

Originally posted by Chandler

anywho, what book are you placing these bets at again?

This bet was placed at BoDog

**floridagolfer** · 02-08-11, 03:54 PM

You've got to at least wait to see how this labor problem plays itself out. If this doesn't get resolved until August or September and the schedules of training camps, exhibition games and the first couple weeks of the regular seasons are somehow changed or severely impacted, that's the stuff you have to weigh.

I'll be interested to see how tempting the number is for the Jets.

**The Bet Master** · 02-08-11, 03:56 PM

I think that time has run out for the colts, 9-7 in 2011.

**Louisvillekid1** · 02-08-11, 04:03 PM

not a bad play, got a shot...

**Money** · 02-08-11, 04:12 PM

dont think theres gonna be a season

**Vol_Bengal** · 02-08-11, 04:21 PM

Don't get all the hate and negativity...

hell if the guy only threw $10 on it and it hits he's getting $140. If Indy makes playoffs or gets to second / third round, etc. suddenly you start hedging it doesn't look to bad.

Indy will win their division again. Bank it. From there you just gotta go with your gut and feel at how the teams are playing at that point.

**Seattle Slew** · 02-08-11, 04:24 PM

Sanders has the best scam going. Signs a contract, plays in one or two games, is out for the season and gets a full year's pay. He's played 9 games in 3 years, and only 3 games the last two seasons.

I think the Colts best chance is to have a bad year, have the coach fired, and bring in a legitimate NFL coach for Manning's last few seasons. Similar to what Denver did with Elway/Shanahan.

Originally posted by Jonah

You mean the Cavs? Truly the Cavs of the NFL. I wish Peyton would pull a Lebron on them and leave so we can see an 0-18 team. Getting sick of this organization. How bout cutting Bob Sanders for starters?

**big0mar** · 02-08-11, 04:42 PM

Manning doesnt need a coach

Just needs Dallas Clark to stay healthy

Guys were as good as anyone in the AFC this season

**acarmelo1** · 02-08-11, 04:44 PM

I think this bet is +EV

**acarmelo1** · 02-08-11, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

Manning doesnt need a coach

Just needs Dallas Clark to stay healthy

Guys were as good as anyone in the AFC this season

BTW, The real coach of The colts is Peyton.